Guardians vs Padres Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 23

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 23, 2022, 10:26 AM
  • The Padres (68-56) are -150 favorites vs the Guardians (64-56)
  • Guardians starting pitcher: Aaron Civale (2-5), 5.62 ERA
  • Padres starting pitcher: Michael Clevinger (4-4), 3.63 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSSD

The Cleveland Guardians (+125) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-150) on Tuesday, August 23, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego.

The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).

The Guardians vs Padres Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Guardians are 64-55 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 56-65 ATS.

Guardians vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Guardians+1.5 -160O 8 -115+125
Padres -1.5 +135U 8 -105-150

Guardians vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 40 games (+14.20 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Myles Straw has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+12.85 Units / 80% ROI)
  • Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.30 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+11.30 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Myles Straw has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 67% ROI)

Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Bell has hit the Singles Under in 29 of his last 42 games (+14.55 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 51 games (+14.40 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Wil Myers has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 19 games at home (+13.40 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 17 of his last 21 games (+13.05 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Under in 40 of his last 53 games (+12.95 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 13 away games (+11.40 Units / 72% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 away games (+10.10 Units / 70% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 away games (+7.90 Units / 55% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 23 of their last 43 games (+5.65 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 12 away games (+3.25 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 55 of their last 99 games (+14.85 Units / 14% ROI)

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 64-55 against the Run Line (+4.55 Units / 3.03% ROI).

  • 64-55 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.05 Units / 6.79% ROI
  • 55-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.55 Units / -5% ROI
  • 56-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.4 Units / -3.36% ROI

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 56-65 against the Run Line (-12.2 Units / -8.14% ROI).

  • 66-55 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.8 Units / -4.91% ROI
  • 57-61 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.35 Units / -7.08% ROI
  • 61-57 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.2 Units / -1.63% ROI

Aaron Civale has not allowed a HR in any of his last four starts dating back to July 8th — the longest active streak is 8.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 33% (41/123) against Aaron Civale on inside fastballs since the start of 2020 — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 170 total IP; League Avg: 22% — third Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 33% (29/87) against Aaron Civale on inside fastballs since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 140 total IP; League Avg: 22% — second Percentile.

50% of Aaron Civale’s called strikeouts are elevated since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 140 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.

Michael Clevinger: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Mike Clevinger has allowed an OBP of .412 (51 PA’s) with two-strikes this month (4 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — first Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 18% (8/44) against Mike Clevinger this month (4 games) — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .326 (14-for-43) against Mike Clevinger with two-strikes this month (4 games) — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .169 — second Percentile.

Mike Clevinger has allowed an OPS of .877 (51 PA’s) with two-strikes this month (4 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .489 — first Percentile.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Guardians are 10-49 (.169) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .086.

The Guardians are 38-5 (.884) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .725.

The Guardians are 10-9 (.526) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Guardians are 43-1 (.977) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .885.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Padres are just 2-42 (.045) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.

The Padres are 35-26 (.574) at home this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .529.

The Padres are 22-8 (.733) when scoring in the first inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .663.

The Padres are 23-6 (.793) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .710.

Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Guardians hitters have just 593 strikeouts in 3,394 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters are slugging just .332 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .397.

Guardians hitters have just 829 strikeouts in 4,537 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 58% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.

Padres hitters have chased 22% of pitches out of the zone this month (21 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.

Padres hitters are slugging just .374 against LHP since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.

Padres hitters have drawn 74 walks in 588 PA’s (13%) against RHP this month (21 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Guardians pitchers have walked 5 of 173 batters (3%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (19 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Guardians pitchers have walked 3 of 108 batters (3%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (12 games) — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Guardians pitchers have walked 66 of 1,067 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

The longest HR allowed by the Guardians pitchers this season traveled 446.0 feet — — 4th shortest in MLB; League Avg: 459.6

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .190 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .223.

The longest HR allowed by the Padres pitchers this season traveled 486.0 feet — — 3rd longest in MLB; League Avg: 459.6

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .179 against Padres pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .219.

Padres pitchers have walked 65 of 1,108 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Padres vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Tayler Scott (Padres): Finger, D15
  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
  • Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D60
  • Craig Stammen (Padres): Shoulder, D15
  • Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
  • Austin Hedges (Guardians): Ankle, Day-to-Day
  • Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.