- The Padres are -165 favorites vs the Guardians
- Guardians starting pitcher: Tanner Bibee
- Padres starting pitcher: Joseph Musgrove
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Cleveland Guardians (+140) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-165) on Tuesday, June 13, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Guardians vs Padres Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Guardians are 31-34 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 32-33 ATS.
Guardians vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +1.5 -150 | O 7.5 -105 | +140 |
| Padres | -1.5 +125 | U 7.5 -115 | -165 |
Guardians vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 74.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Over in 28 of his last 44 games (+13.75 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 50 games (+12.50 Units / 12% ROI)
- Will Brennan has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 22 away games (+11.65 Units / 27% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.80 Units / 60% ROI)
- Cam Gallagher has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+10.30 Units / 55% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Juan Soto has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 24 games at home (+12.15 Units / 34% ROI)
- Nelson Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 10 games (+10.50 Units / 74% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 21 games (+8.95 Units / 42% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the RBIs Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+8.65 Units / 32% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 15 games (+7.30 Units / 41% ROI)
Padres vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +1150 | 0.5 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +1450 | 0.5 |
| Mike Zunino | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
Padres vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Amed Rosario | 1.5 +195 | 1.5 -275 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Mike Zunino | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -140 |
Padres vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -400 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -500 |
| Mike Zunino | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
Padres vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tanner Bibee | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 +110 |
| Joe Musgrove | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -145 |
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 49 games (+17.65 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 23 games (+11.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 14 games (+9.80 Units / 59% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 7 away games (+4.60 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 14 games (+4.30 Units / 27% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 58 games (+22.60 Units / 36% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 55 games (+13.20 Units / 21% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 19 games (+4.20 Units / 19% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.25 Units / 17% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games at home (+2.90 Units / 23% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 32-33 against the Run Line (-1.25 Units / -1.5% ROI).
- 31-34 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.25 Units / -12.52% ROI
- 23-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.65 Units / -27.64% ROI
- 39-23 when betting on the total runs Under for +13.8 Units / 19.17% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 32-33 against the Run Line (-5.45 Units / -6.59% ROI).
- 31-34 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.4 Units / -16.37% ROI
- 21-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -26.25 Units / -35.93% ROI
- 42-21 when betting on the total runs Under for +19.35 Units / 27.54% ROI
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents batted just .119 (26-for-218) against Luis Severino with two-strikes in 2022 — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .169 — 96th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .132 (10-for-76) against Luis Severino’s elevated fastballs in 2022 — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .224 — 96th Percentile.
Luis Severino allowed a BABIP of .239 in 2022 — 10th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .289 — 94th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .080 (2 GB hits out of 25 GBs) against Luis Severino with runners in scoring position in 2022 — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .229 — 100th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Joe Musgrove has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 81.1 MPH on inside pitches since last season (217 balls in play) — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 90 total IP; League Avg: 85.6
Opponents are hitting just .268 (22-for-82) against Joe Musgrove on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 90 total IP; League Avg: .343 — 97th Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has allowed a slugging percentage of just .125 (2 Total Bases / 16 ABs) vs left-handed batters — tied for 4th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .368 — 96th Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 26% (239/917) against Joe Musgrove on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 90 total IP; League Avg: 31% — seventh Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Guardians are 25-76 (.248) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .126.
The Guardians are 17-82 (.172) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .091.
The Guardians are 9-19 (.321) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .145.
The Guardians are 24-57 (.296) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .201.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Padres are 24-33 (.421) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .271.
The Padres are just 5-85 (.056) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .091.
The Padres are 31-4 (.886) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .796.
The Padres are just 5-8 (.385) after a home win this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .549.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 1,128 strikeouts in 6,332 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters have just 1,584 strikeouts in 8,599 PA’s (18%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .350 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .405.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have drawn 201 walks in 1,698 PA’s (12%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Padres are batting just .153 with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
The Padres are batting just .216 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Padres hitters are slugging just .243 with two-strikes this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .268.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 128 of 2,049 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Guardians pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 40 of 589 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (1,583 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 50% against Padres pitchers over the last 14 days (12 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 35% of their games this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Avg of just 36% against the Padres pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Padres vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Jacob Lugo (Padres): Calf, D15
- Nelson Cruz (Padres): Hamstring, D10
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Nabil Crismatt (Padres): Hip Strain, D15
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D60
- Peyton Battenfield (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Cal Quantrill (Guardians): Shoulder, D15
- Andrés Giménez (Guardians): Leg, Day-to-Day
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