- The Padres are -160 favorites vs the Guardians
- Guardians starting pitcher: Aaron Civale
- Padres starting pitcher: Michael Wacha
- Watch the game on SDPA
The Cleveland Guardians (+135) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-160) on Wednesday, June 14, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Guardians vs Padres Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Guardians are 31-35 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 33-33 ATS.
Guardians vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +1.5 -145 | O 8.5 -110 | +135 |
| Padres | -1.5 +120 | U 8.5 -110 | -160 |
Guardians vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 63.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Guardians vs Padres and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Over in 28 of his last 45 games (+12.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- Will Brennan has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 23 away games (+12.65 Units / 28% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 50 games (+12.50 Units / 12% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.80 Units / 62% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 18 away games (+11.50 Units / 63% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Juan Soto has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+11.00 Units / 30% ROI)
- Nelson Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 10 games (+10.50 Units / 74% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 22 games (+10.45 Units / 47% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.65 Units / 33% ROI)
- Michael Wacha has hit the Earned Runs Under in his last 7 games (+7.15 Units / 74% ROI)
Padres vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +1100 | 0.5 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +1250 | 0.5 |
| Mike Zunino | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
Padres vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Amed Rosario | 1.5 +170 | 1.5 -225 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Mike Zunino | 0.5 -115 | 0.5 -110 |
Padres vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -450 |
| Mike Zunino | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Padres vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Wacha | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -160 |
| Aaron Civale | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -115 |
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 50 games (+16.55 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 24 games (+9.55 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.80 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.45 Units / 67% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 15 games (+3.30 Units / 20% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 59 games (+21.50 Units / 34% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 56 games (+11.70 Units / 18% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 20 games (+5.45 Units / 24% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.25 Units / 21% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.90 Units / 22% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 32-34 against the Run Line (-2.7 Units / -3.19% ROI).
- 31-35 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.25 Units / -13.58% ROI
- 24-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.65 Units / -25.83% ROI
- 39-24 when betting on the total runs Under for +12.7 Units / 17.37% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 33-33 against the Run Line (-4.2 Units / -5.01% ROI).
- 32-34 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.4 Units / -15.05% ROI
- 22-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -25.25 Units / -34.05% ROI
- 42-22 when betting on the total runs Under for +18.25 Units / 25.58% ROI
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Civale has a strikeout rate of just 26% (7 SO in 27 PAs) with two-strikes — tied for 6th lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 42% — seventh Percentile.
Aaron Civale has thrown his cutter 44% of the time (418/941) vs left-handed batters since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 90 total CUT; League Avg: 19% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 18% (50/279) against Aaron Civale on non-fastballs since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 155 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 99th Percentile.
The last hit on a Aaron Civale breaking pitch was June 2nd. Hitters are 0 for their last 15 in ABs ending on his breaking pitches. — the longest active streak is 20.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 32% (25/78) against Michael Wacha in two-strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .226 (7-for-31) against Michael Wacha on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .343 — 96th Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 18% (14/78) against Michael Wacha with two-strikes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 36% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 33% (62/188) against Michael Wacha this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — fifth Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Guardians are 25-77 (.245) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .126.
The Guardians are 4-27 (.129) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .054.
The Guardians are 17-83 (.170) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .091.
The Guardians are 9-20 (.310) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .145.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Padres are 14-1 (.933) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .733.
The Padres are 26-3 (.897) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .785.
The Padres are just 6-31 (.162) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.
The Padres are 24-33 (.421) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .270.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 1,134 strikeouts in 6,365 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 22% of swings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .653 (2,271 PA’s) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .349 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .405.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting just .216 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
The Padres are batting just .223 with runners on base this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .257.
Padres hitters have drawn 204 walks in 1,733 PA’s (12%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 46% against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Guardians pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 129 of 2,057 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 41 of 597 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Avg of just 36% against the Padres pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 50% against Padres pitchers over the last 14 days (12 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres pitchers have an ERA of 3.76 (586.0 IP) this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.28.
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (12 games) — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Padres vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Jacob Lugo (Padres): Calf, D15
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Nabil Crismatt (Padres): Hip Strain, D15
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D60
- Peyton Battenfield (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Cal Quantrill (Guardians): Shoulder, D15
- Andrés Giménez (Guardians): Leg, Day-to-Day
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