- The Padres are -125 favorites vs the Guardians
- Guardians starting pitcher: Logan Allen
- Padres starting pitcher: Ryan Weathers
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Cleveland Guardians (+105) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-125) on Thursday, June 15, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:40pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Guardians vs Padres Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Guardians are 31-36 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 34-33 ATS.
Guardians vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +1.5 -185 | O 8.5 -105 | +105 |
| Padres | -1.5 +150 | U 8.5 -115 | -125 |
Guardians vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 66.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Will Brennan has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 24 away games (+13.65 Units / 29% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 17 games (+12.80 Units / 64% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 50 games (+12.50 Units / 12% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Over in 28 of his last 46 games (+11.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- Will Brennan has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+11.15 Units / 58% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 23 games (+12.20 Units / 52% ROI)
- Nelson Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 10 games (+10.50 Units / 74% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 21 games at home (+9.55 Units / 32% ROI)
- Michael Wacha has hit the Earned Runs Under in his last 8 games (+8.15 Units / 72% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 22 games (+7.85 Units / 32% ROI)
Padres vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +1300 | 0.5 |
| Mike Zunino | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
Padres vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Amed Rosario | 1.5 +165 | 1.5 -225 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Mike Zunino | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +100 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Padres vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -450 |
| Mike Zunino | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Padres vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Allen | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -105 |
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 51 games (+17.55 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 36 of their last 60 games (+9.45 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 25 games (+8.10 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.50 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 16 games (+2.30 Units / 13% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 60 games (+22.50 Units / 35% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 57 games (+10.50 Units / 16% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 21 games (+6.70 Units / 28% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.25 Units / 24% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.90 Units / 25% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 32-35 against the Run Line (-4.15 Units / -4.82% ROI).
- 31-36 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.25 Units / -14.61% ROI
- 24-40 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.8 Units / -26.99% ROI
- 40-24 when betting on the total runs Under for +13.7 Units / 18.48% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 34-33 against the Run Line (-2.95 Units / -3.48% ROI).
- 33-34 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.4 Units / -13.78% ROI
- 22-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -26.4 Units / -35.06% ROI
- 43-22 when betting on the total runs Under for +19.25 Units / 26.59% ROI
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .348 (16-for-46) against Logan Allen — 5th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .238 — fourth Percentile.
Logan Allen has allowed a slugging percentage of .609 (28 Total Bases / 46 ABs) over the last 14 days (2 games) — 3rd highest in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: .399 — sixth Percentile.
Logan Allen has allowed an OBP of .400 (50 PA’s) over the last 14 days (2 games) — 5th highest in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: .300 — 10th Percentile.
Logan Allen has allowed an OPS of 1.009 (52 PA’s) — 5th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .700 — fourth Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ryan Weathers has a strikeout rate of just 18% (10 SO in 56 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 9th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 26 total IP; League Avg: 33% — seventh Percentile.
Ryan Weathers has a strikeout rate of just 15% (25 SO in 162 PAs) this season — tied for 14th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 26 total IP; League Avg: 22% — ninth Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 30% (29/96) against Ryan Weathers against right-handed batters this season — 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 26 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 95th Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 23% (16/70) against Ryan Weathers on non-fastballs this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 26 total IP; League Avg: 36% — 99th Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Guardians are 25-78 (.243) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .127.
The Guardians are 4-28 (.125) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .054.
The Guardians are 9-21 (.300) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .146.
The Guardians are 17-84 (.168) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .091.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Padres are 14-1 (.933) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .733.
The Padres are 6-6 (.500) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
The Padres are 27-3 (.900) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .784.
The Padres are 24-33 (.421) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .271.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 1,140 strikeouts in 6,390 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 34% against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 41%.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .364 against RHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .405.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have drawn 623 walks in 6,114 PA’s (10%) against RHP since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres hitters have drawn 209 walks in 1,766 PA’s (12%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Padres are batting just .153 with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .171.
The Padres are batting just .216 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 129 of 2,065 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 41 of 605 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 630 of 8,533 batters (7%) since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 195 of 2,544 batters (8%) this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.7 MPH (1,609 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Avg of just 36% against the Padres pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Padres pitchers have allowed a run just 25% of the time after an opposing score since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
The Padres have won 36% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Padres vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Jacob Lugo (Padres): Calf, D15
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Nabil Crismatt (Padres): Hip Strain, D15
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D60
- Peyton Battenfield (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Cal Quantrill (Guardians): Shoulder, D15
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