- The Guardians are -120 favorites vs the Padres
- Guardians starting pitcher: Triston McKenzie, 12.00 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Michael Wacha, 0.00 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB.com
The Cleveland Guardians (-120) visit Peoria Sports Complex to take on the San Diego Padres (+100) on Wednesday, March 15, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Peoria.
The Guardians are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Guardians vs Padres Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Guardians are 4-9 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 6-8 ATS.
Guardians vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | -1.5 +125 | O 9.5 +100 | -120 |
| Padres | +1.5 -150 | U 9.5 -120 | +100 |
Guardians vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Wednesday‘s Spring Training matchup with 59.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Owen Miller has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.30 Units / 78% ROI)
- Luke Maile has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Will Benson has hit the Singles Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Richie Palacios has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 35% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+4.50 Units / 112% ROI)
- Austin Nola has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+4.05 Units / 71% ROI)
- Matthew Batten has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 3 of his last 4 games at home (+2.75 Units / 69% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 7 of his last 12 games (+2.35 Units / 16% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 89 of their last 150 games (+26.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 38 away games (+17.75 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 41 away games (+15.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 37 of their last 61 away games (+11.05 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 63 games (+9.45 Units / 14% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 32 games at home (+8.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.60 Units / 40% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 30 games (+6.00 Units / 15% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 37 games (+5.70 Units / 13% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 30 games (+3.25 Units / 8% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 4-9 against the Run Line (-6.4 Units / -40.13% ROI).
- 4-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.4 Units / -38.21% ROI
- 6-5 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.5 Units / 3.47% ROI
- 5-6 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.5 Units / -10.56% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 6-8 against the Run Line (-2.25 Units / -13.12% ROI).
- 5-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.25 Units / -31.07% ROI
- 6-7 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.65 Units / -10.54% ROI
- 7-6 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.65 Units / 4.29% ROI
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 34% (170/502) against Triston McKenzie last season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — second Percentile.
Triston McKenzie allowed a slugging percentage of .576 (53 Total Bases / 92 ABs) with runners in scoring position last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .381 — second Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a swing rate of 55% (864/1,562) against Triston McKenzie last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 50% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 33% (62/190) against Triston McKenzie in two-strike counts last season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — second Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 29% (84/287) against Michael Wacha vs left-handed batters since the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 38% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents had a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 25% (37/146) against Michael Wacha vs left-handed batters in 2022 — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 38% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 46% (209/452) against Michael Wacha against right-handed batters since the 2021 season — tied for 9th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 39% — seventh Percentile.
Opponents had a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 22% (20/92) against Michael Wacha on changeups in 2022 — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 33% — 94th Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Guardians are 16-57 (.219) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Guardians are 12-60 (.167) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Guardians are 25-7 (.781) when hitting 2 or more home runs last season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Guardians are 14-10 (.583) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Padres are 74-25 (.747) when allowing 4 or fewer runs last season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Padres are 22-2 (.917) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
The Padres are 71-7 (.910) when leading entering the 7th inning last season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .881.
The Padres are just 8-151 (.050) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters slugged just .343 against LHP last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Guardians hitters had 93 extra-base hits out of 341 total hits (just 27%) against LHP last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Guardians hitters struck out just 795 times in 4,584 PA’s (17%) against RHP last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters missed on just 21% of swings last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 59% with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.
Padres hitters had an OPS of just .672 (2,955 PA’s) at home last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .718.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 46% since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres hitters have chased 26% of pitches out of the zone against RHP since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers walked 88 of 1,460 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Guardians pitchers walked 435 of 5,989 batters (7%) last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Guardians pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 42% of their games last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .196 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .223.
Padres pitchers have allowed a run just 26% of the time after an opposing score since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 42% against Padres pitchers last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .193 against Padres pitchers with the shift last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .221.
Padres vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Cleveland Guardians – No Injuries Reported
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