- The Guardians are -135 favorites vs the Pirates
- Guardians vs Pirates Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Guardians / Pirates TV Channel: GDTV | SNPT
The Cleveland Guardians (-130) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+110) on Friday, April 18, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Guardians are 9-9 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 7-13 ATS.
Guardians vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Guardians starting pitcher: Luis Ortiz 1-2, 6.19 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Carmen Mlodzinski 1-2, 6.24 ERA
Guardians vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | -1.5 +135 | O 8.5 -102 | -130 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -160 | U 8.5 -118 | +110 |
Guardians vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Friday‘s MLB game with 52.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Gabriel Arias has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games (+22.50 Units / 375% ROI)
- Nolan Jones has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.35 Units / 45% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 20 away games (+9.60 Units / 31% ROI)
- Nolan Jones has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.40 Units / 59% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+8.25 Units / 69% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 9 games at home (+12.00 Units / 133% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+9.05 Units / 46% ROI)
- Oneil Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+8.25 Units / 26% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+7.45 Units / 54% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+7.10 Units / 71% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 85 away games (+10.95 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 93 of their last 168 games (+9.26 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 away games (+5.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 93 of their last 171 games (+2.95 Units / 1% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+2.10 Units / 19% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 90 of their last 163 games (+5.80 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 83 of their last 163 games (+2.75 Units / 2% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 8-10 against the Run Line (-4.05 Units / -16.04% ROI).
- 9-9 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.15 Units / 0.67% ROI
- 8-8 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.4 Units / -2.06% ROI
- 8-8 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.75 Units / -3.71% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 7-13 against the Run Line (-8.2 Units / -31.36% ROI).
- 8-12 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.9 Units / -20.72% ROI
- 8-11 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.05 Units / -18.33% ROI
- 11-8 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.35 Units / 10.73% ROI
Pirates vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Kyle Manzardo (CLE) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Carlos Santana (CLE) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Pirates vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Carlos Santana (CLE) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Gabriel Arias (CLE) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Joey Bart (PIT) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Lane Thomas (CLE) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Pirates vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Santana (CLE) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Kyle Manzardo (CLE) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Pirates vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carmen Mlodzinski (PIT) | 3.5 -135 | 3.5 +100 |
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Ortiz allowed an OBP of .428 (152 PA’s) versus the top of the order in 2023 — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .328 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 48% (12/25) against Luis Ortiz on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 98th Percentile.
Luis Ortiz has a strikeout rate of just 11% (19 SO in 179 PAs) when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 136 total IP; League Avg: 20% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents batted just .263 (62-for-236) against Luis Ortiz in non-two strike counts in the 2024 season — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .330 — 100th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .095 (4-for-42) against Carmen Mlodzinski’s elevated fastball since last season — 8th best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .196 — 94th Percentile.
Carmen Mlodzinski has a strike rate of just 60% (348/580) against right-handed batters since last season — tied for lowest among NL Relievers; League Avg: 65% — second Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 22% (107/487) against Carmen Mlodzinski since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — second Percentile.
Carmen Mlodzinski has a strike rate of just 60% (561/927) against right-handed batters since the 2023 season — tied for 4th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — third Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Guardians are 79-3 (.963) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .860.
The Guardians were just 3-61 (.047) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .100.
The Guardians are just 3-70 (.041) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .096.
The Guardians are 85-2 (.977) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .903.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Pirates were just 7-44 (.137) when allowing 10 or more hits in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
The Pirates are just 11-35 (.239) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .361.
The Pirates are just 7-49 (.125) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Pirates are just 0-9 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .028.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters slugged just .367 against LHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Guardians hitters had an OPS of just .662 (1,910 PA’s) against LHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .742.
Guardians hitters are slugging .936 on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .576.
The Guardians batted just .232 against LHP in the 2023 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .068 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .147.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .197 (66 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .323.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .082 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .198.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .583 (736 PA’s) this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .696.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .207 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .210 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Guardians allowed 0.87 runs per game (140/161) in late innings in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .223 against Guardians pitchers in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Pirates pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 25% against Pirates pitchers since the 2023 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 7 of 137 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (15 games) — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Pirates pitchers this month (15 games) — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
More MLB Reading:
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