- The Pirates are -185 favorites vs the Guardians
- Guardians vs Pirates Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Guardians / Pirates TV Channel: GDTV | SNPT
The Cleveland Guardians (+150) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-185) on Saturday, April 19, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA, PA.
This season, the Guardians are 10-9 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 7-14 ATS.
Guardians vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Guardians starting pitcher: Ben Lively 0-2, 4.95 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Paul Skenes 2-1, 2.96 ERA
Guardians vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +1.5 -150 | O 8 -115 | +150 |
| Pirates | -1.5 +125 | U 8 -105 | -185 |
Guardians vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 61.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Gabriel Arias has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+21.50 Units / 307% ROI)
- Nolan Jones has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.35 Units / 44% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 20 away games (+12.15 Units / 39% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+9.30 Units / 38% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 20 away games (+8.45 Units / 33% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games at home (+17.80 Units / 178% ROI)
- Joey Bart has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.15 Units / 35% ROI)
- Oneil Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+6.20 Units / 19% ROI)
- Andrew McCutchen has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+5.95 Units / 54% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 85 away games (+10.85 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 93 of their last 168 games (+9.06 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 10 away games (+3.90 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.10 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 93 of their last 171 games (+2.95 Units / 1% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 90 of their last 164 games (+4.80 Units / 2% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 45 of their last 87 games at home (+1.85 Units / 2% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 9-10 against the Run Line (-2.75 Units / -10.48% ROI).
- 10-9 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.15 Units / 4.83% ROI
- 9-8 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.6 Units / 2.94% ROI
- 8-9 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.95 Units / -9.11% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 7-14 against the Run Line (-9.7 Units / -35.08% ROI).
- 8-13 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.9 Units / -23.94% ROI
- 9-11 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.05 Units / -13.2% ROI
- 11-9 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.15 Units / 4.98% ROI
Pirates vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Joey Bart (PIT) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Enmanuel Valdez (PIT) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Pirates vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Steven Kwan (CLE) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Pirates vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| Joey Bart (PIT) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
| Enmanuel Valdez (PIT) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Pirates vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Lively (CLE) | 3.5 -165 | 3.5 +125 |
| Paul Skenes (PIT) | 6.5 -155 | 6.5 +115 |
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
14 of Ben Lively’s 43 breaking pitch strikeouts (33%) have been backdoor since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 72 total IP; League Avg: 14% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .364 (12-for-33) against Ben Lively when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .230 — fourth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .364 (12-for-33) against Ben Lively when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 2nd highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: .227 — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 16% (9/56) against Ben Lively this season — 7th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — seventh Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Paul Skenes has not walked any of the 36 batters that they have faced when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for best among among NL Starters; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .039 (2-for-51) against Paul Skenes with two-strikes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .159 — 100th Percentile.
Paul Skenes has not walked any of the 36 batters that they have faced when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Paul Skenes has allowed an OBP of just .109 (55 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — best among among NL Starters; League Avg: .232 — 100th Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Guardians are 80-3 (.964) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .861.
The Guardians are just 3-70 (.041) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .096.
The Guardians were 77-2 (.975) when leading entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .899.
The Guardians were 71-2 (.973) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .856.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Pirates are just 7-50 (.123) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
The Pirates are just 11-35 (.239) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .361.
The Pirates are just 0-10 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .026.
The Pirates were just 7-44 (.137) when allowing 10 or more hits in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters had an OPS of just .662 (1,910 PA’s) against LHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .742.
The Guardians batted just .232 against LHP in the 2023 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Guardians hitters slugged just .367 against LHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Guardians hitters are slugging .958 on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .578.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .069 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .146.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .188 (69 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .321.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .507 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .578.
Pirates hitters have struck out in 34% of it’s PA’s in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .209 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Guardians allowed 0.87 runs per game (140/161) in late innings in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .207 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .223 against Guardians pitchers in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Batters facing the Pirates pitchers have struck out in the zone 52% of the time since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 25% against Pirates pitchers since the 2023 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Pirates pitchers this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Pirates pitchers had 266 three-pitch strikeouts in the 2024 season — 3rd most in MLB.
More MLB Reading:
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