- The Guardians are -105 favorites vs the Pirates
- Guardians starting pitcher: Logan Allen
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller
- Watch the game on SportsNet PT
The Cleveland Guardians (-105) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-115) on Tuesday, July 18, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Guardians are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Guardians vs Pirates Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Guardians are 46-48 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 43-51 ATS.
Guardians vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | -1.5 +155 | O 8.5 -110 | -105 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -190 | U 8.5 -110 | -115 |
Guardians vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 51.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Guardians vs Pirates and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+11.80 Units / 74% ROI)
- Will Brennan has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+10.80 Units / 23% ROI)
- Cal Quantrill has hit the Strikeouts Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.60 Units / 51% ROI)
- Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.45 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+8.45 Units / 23% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+10.70 Units / 22% ROI)
- Henry Davis has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+10.45 Units / 70% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.20 Units / 35% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Singles Over in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 48% ROI)
Pirates vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Liover Peguero | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
Pirates vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Will Brennan | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 1.5 +195 | 1.5 -275 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Liover Peguero | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
Pirates vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| RBis will Liover Peguero | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
Pirates vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -135 |
| Logan Allen | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -135 |
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 78 games (+16.70 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 30 of their last 52 games (+9.75 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 27 of their last 43 games (+8.70 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 43 games (+3.40 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.50 Units / 29% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 43 of their last 66 games (+18.30 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 25 games at home (+12.90 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+7.80 Units / 63% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.70 Units / 18% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 46-48 against the Run Line (-2.5 Units / -2.11% ROI).
- 46-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.15 Units / -9.26% ROI
- 37-53 when betting on the total runs Over for -21.7 Units / -20.88% ROI
- 53-37 when betting on the total runs Under for +12.85 Units / 12.48% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 43-51 against the Run Line (-21.15 Units / -16.87% ROI).
- 41-53 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.1 Units / -5.84% ROI
- 47-42 when betting on the total runs Over for +1 Units / 0.97% ROI
- 42-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.2 Units / -8.91% ROI
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
37 of Domingo German’s 58 strikeouts (64%) came on curveballs in 2022 — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 16% — 98th Percentile.
48 of Domingo German’s 58 strikeouts (83%) came on non-fastballs in 2022 — 9th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 56% — 95th Percentile.
Domingo German induced opposing hitters to ground into 8 double plays in 45 opportunities (18%) in 2022 — tied for 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 11% — 96th Percentile.
67% of Domingo German strikeouts were located out of the zone in 2022 — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 52% — 98th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mitch Keller has allowed an OPS of just .551 (235 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .687 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 24% (23/94) against Mitch Keller when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Mitch Keller has a strikeout rate of 61% (39 SO in 64 PAs) in PAs ending on fastballs away this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Mitch Keller has a strikeout rate of 37% (37 SO in 101 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 92nd Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Guardians are 27-85 (.241) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .129.
The Guardians are 11-28 (.282) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .148.
The Guardians are 28-67 (.295) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .203.
The Guardians are just 5-11 (.312) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Pirates are 37-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Pirates are just 103-152 (.404) since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 17-101 (.144) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .203.
The Pirates are just 59-92 (.391) after a loss since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .482.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 1,265 strikeouts in 7,103 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have just 1,787 strikeouts in 9,720 PA’s (18%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .659 (2,617 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .043 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game over the last 14 days (6 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .297 (2,921 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .367 against RHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.
The Pirates are batting just .152 with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 57 of 847 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 145 of 2,307 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 3.17 (915.2 IP) against division opponents since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.08.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 923 of 9,843 batters (9%) since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 56% of their games on the road since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 75 of 829 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,529 of 15,983 batters (10%) since the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jarlín García (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Jose Hernandez (Pirates): Calf, D15
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- William Crowe (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pirates): Ankle, D10
- Shane Bieber (Guardians): Elbow, D15
- Cal Quantrill (Guardians): Shoulder, D15
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Elbow, D60
- Peyton Battenfield (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
Bet now on Guardians vs Pirates and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.
