- The – are favorites vs the –
- Guardians starting pitcher: Aaron Civale
- Pirates starting pitcher: Richard Hill
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Cleveland Guardians () visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates () on Wednesday, July 19, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 12:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The – are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at ().
The Guardians vs Pirates Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Guardians are 47-48 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 43-52 ATS.
Guardians vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | O | ||
| Pirates | U |
Guardians vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 65.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Guardians vs Pirates and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+12.80 Units / 68% ROI)
- Cal Quantrill has hit the Strikeouts Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.60 Units / 51% ROI)
- Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.45 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+9.45 Units / 25% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 21 away games (+8.90 Units / 39% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 26 games (+11.25 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Singles Over in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 84% ROI)
- Jared Triolo has hit the Hits Over in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 48% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+10.45 Units / 33% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 17 games at home (+9.85 Units / 26% ROI)
Pirates vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +1200 | 0.5 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +1300 | 0.5 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +1200 | 0.5 |
Pirates vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -125 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Steven Kwan | 1.5 +160 | 1.5 -210 |
| Amed Rosario | 1.5 +120 | 1.5 -155 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
Pirates vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Hedges | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -550 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
Pirates vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rich Hill | 3.5 -150 | 3.5 +115 |
| Aaron Civale | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +115 |
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 79 games (+15.65 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 53 games (+10.75 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 44 games (+9.75 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 44 games (+4.40 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.50 Units / 34% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 44 of their last 67 games (+19.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 26 games at home (+13.90 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 12 games at home (+8.80 Units / 65% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 9 games (+0.70 Units / 7% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 47-48 against the Run Line (-1.5 Units / -1.24% ROI).
- 47-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.15 Units / -8.35% ROI
- 38-53 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.7 Units / -19.7% ROI
- 53-38 when betting on the total runs Under for +11.8 Units / 11.34% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 43-52 against the Run Line (-22.15 Units / -17.53% ROI).
- 41-54 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.2 Units / -6.82% ROI
- 48-42 when betting on the total runs Over for +2 Units / 1.91% ROI
- 42-48 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.25 Units / -9.83% ROI
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Carlos Rodon had a strikeout rate of 33% (237/710) in 2022 — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
20 of Aaron Civale’s 46 strikeouts (43%) have come on cutters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: 4% — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Civale has allowed an OBP of just .095 (21 PA’s) against right-handed batters — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .285 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 35% (69/195) against Carlos Rodon in two-strike counts in 2022 — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — fourth Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
17 of Rich Hill’s 51 breaking pitch strikeouts (33%) have been backdoor this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 13% — 100th Percentile.
36 of Rich Hill’s 117 breaking pitch strikeouts (31%) have been backdoor since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 102 total IP; League Avg: 13% — 98th Percentile.
Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 40% of the time (511/1,269) in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 18% — 97th Percentile.
Rich Hill has an average fastball velocity of just 87.9 MPH this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 93.7 — first Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Guardians are 27-85 (.241) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .129.
The Guardians are 28-67 (.295) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .203.
The Guardians are 18-92 (.164) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .092.
The Guardians are 11-28 (.282) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .147.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Pirates are just 6-127 (.045) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .092.
The Pirates are just 8-15 (.348) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 98-134 (.422) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.
The Pirates are just 43-59 (.422) after a win since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .518.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 1,266 strikeouts in 7,142 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters have just 471 strikeouts in 2,558 PA’s (18%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have just 1,790 strikeouts in 9,762 PA’s (18%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .296 (2,941 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
The Pirates are batting just .189 on breaking pitches since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .219.
The Pirates are batting just .151 with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .283 over the last 14 days (10 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .420.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 57 of 856 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 145 of 2,316 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 2.79 (229.1 IP) against division opponents this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.30.
The Guardians have won 48% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 925 of 9,885 batters (9%) since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,531 of 16,025 batters (10%) since the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 110 MPH 74 times since last season — 3rd fewest in MLB.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 56% of their games on the road since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Pirates vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jarlín García (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Jose Hernandez (Pirates): Calf, D15
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- William Crowe (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pirates): Ankle, D10
- Shane Bieber (Guardians): Elbow, D15
- Cal Quantrill (Guardians): Shoulder, D15
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Elbow, D60
- Peyton Battenfield (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
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