- The Rangers are -135 favorites vs the Guardians
- Guardians starting pitcher: Aaron Civale
- Rangers starting pitcher: Jonathan Gray
- Watch the game on BSSW
The Cleveland Guardians (+115) visit Globe Life Field to take on the Texas Rangers (-135) on Friday, July 14, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05pm EDT in Arlington.
The Rangers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Guardians vs Rangers Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Guardians are 45-45 against the spread (ATS), while the Rangers are 53-38 ATS.
Guardians vs. Rangers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +1.5 -175 | O 8.5 +100 | +115 |
| Rangers | -1.5 +145 | U 8.5 -120 | -135 |
Guardians vs Rangers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rangers will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 60.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Rangers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Will Brennan has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 23 away games (+17.60 Units / 41% ROI)
- Cal Quantrill has hit the Strikeouts Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.60 Units / 51% ROI)
- Will Brennan has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 23 away games (+10.30 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+10.05 Units / 38% ROI)
- Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.45 Units / 39% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rangers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rangers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Corey Seager has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 23 games at home (+13.40 Units / 54% ROI)
- Corey Seager has hit the RBIs Over in 15 of his last 24 games at home (+12.70 Units / 53% ROI)
- Corey Seager has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 23 games at home (+7.95 Units / 27% ROI)
- Adolis Garcia has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+7.40 Units / 27% ROI)
- Marcus Semien has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 23 games at home (+7.10 Units / 30% ROI)
Rangers vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Nate Lowe | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +1200 | 0.5 |
Rangers vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Nate Lowe | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Steven Kwan | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
| Amed Rosario | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Rangers vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Nate Lowe | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
Rangers vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Civale | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 +105 |
| Jon Gray | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -155 |
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 74 games (+18.75 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 48 games (+10.50 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 39 games (+5.40 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 34 away games (+4.15 Units / 10% ROI)
Rangers Best Bets Today:
- The Texas Rangers have covered the Run Line in 50 of their last 83 games (+19.30 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 39 games at home (+14.15 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 39 games at home (+13.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 27 of their last 39 games at home (+13.40 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 39 games at home (+11.20 Units / 26% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 44-46 against the Run Line (-1.75 Units / -1.55% ROI).
- 45-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.15 Units / -7.87% ROI
- 34-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -23.5 Units / -23.69% ROI
- 52-34 when betting on the total runs Under for +14.9 Units / 15.06% ROI
Rangers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rangers have gone 53-38 against the Run Line (+15.85 Units / 14.09% ROI).
- 52-39 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.25 Units / 1.71% ROI
- 47-38 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.55 Units / 5.55% ROI
- 38-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.9 Units / -13.84% ROI
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Carlos Rodon elevated 49% of his pitches (296/606) when ahead in the count in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
Carlos Rodon had a strikeout rate of 39% (56/142) with runners in scoring position in 2022 — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 21% — 100th Percentile.
Carlos Rodon elevated 50% of his pitches (357/711) on the first pitch of at-bats in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Carlos Rodon had a strikeout rate of 33% (237/710) in 2022 — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Rangers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .381 (8-for-21) against Jon Gray with two-strikes — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .167 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .457 (21-for-46) against Jon Gray on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .341 — sixth Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .419 (13-for-31) against Jon Gray — 3rd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .234 — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .168 (31-for-184) against Jon Gray’s non-fastballs this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .222 — 90th Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Rangers
The Guardians are 27-84 (.243) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .127.
The Guardians are 28-65 (.301) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .202.
The Guardians are 18-90 (.167) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .092.
The Guardians are 11-27 (.289) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .143.
Rangers Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Rangers are just 0-27 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .104.
The Rangers are just 53-42 (.558) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .699.
The Rangers are just 4-102 (.038) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .092.
The Rangers are just 103-17 (.858) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .908.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 1,255 strikeouts in 7,025 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have just 1,760 strikeouts in 9,562 PA’s (18%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .356 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .405.
Rangers Hitting Stats & Trends
Rangers hitters have an OPS of .836 (942 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .741.
Rangers hitters are slugging .318 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .269.
Rangers hitters are slugging .500 at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
Rangers hitters have an OBP of .356 (1,751 PA’s) at home this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .324.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 142 of 2,274 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 54 of 814 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .227 against Guardians pitchers this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Rangers Pitching Stats & Trends
Rangers pitchers have walked 206 of 2,249 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Rangers pitchers since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Rangers have won 55% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Rangers pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 54% of their games on the road since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Rangers vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jacob Odorizzi (Rangers): Shoulder, D60
- Brett Martin (Rangers): Shoulder, D60
- Jacob deGrom (Rangers): Elbow, D60
- Cal Quantrill (Guardians): Shoulder, D15
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Elbow, D60
- Peyton Battenfield (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
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