- The Rangers are -135 favorites vs the Guardians
- Guardians starting pitcher: Tanner Bibee
- Rangers starting pitcher: Martín Pérez
- Watch the game on BSSW
The Cleveland Guardians (+115) visit Globe Life Field to take on the Texas Rangers (-135) on Sunday, July 16, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:35pm EDT in Arlington.
The Rangers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Guardians vs Rangers Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Guardians are 45-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Rangers are 55-38 ATS.
Guardians vs. Rangers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +1.5 -175 | O 9 -105 | +115 |
| Rangers | -1.5 +145 | U 9 -115 | -135 |
Guardians vs Rangers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rangers will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 56.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Rangers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Will Brennan has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 24 away games (+15.05 Units / 33% ROI)
- Cal Quantrill has hit the Strikeouts Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.60 Units / 51% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 away games (+9.70 Units / 47% ROI)
- Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.45 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+9.30 Units / 28% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rangers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rangers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Corey Seager has hit the RBIs Over in 27 of his last 50 games (+15.95 Units / 32% ROI)
- Corey Seager has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+15.40 Units / 57% ROI)
- Marcus Semien has hit the RBIs Under in 22 of his last 26 games (+13.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- Travis Jankowski has hit the Singles Over in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 79% ROI)
- Travis Jankowski has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 49% ROI)
Rangers vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nate Lowe | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +1250 | 0.5 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +1250 | 0.5 |
| Leody Taveras | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
Rangers vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nate Lowe | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Amed Rosario | 1.5 +145 | 1.5 -190 |
| Steven Kwan | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Leody Taveras | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
Rangers vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nate Lowe | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
| Leody Taveras | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
Rangers vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Martin Perez | 3.5 +110 | 3.5 -145 |
| Tanner Bibee | 4.5 -130 | 4.5 +100 |
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 76 games (+18.75 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 50 games (+7.45 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 25 of their last 41 games (+6.70 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 41 games (+3.40 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.15 Units / 29% ROI)
Rangers Best Bets Today:
- The Texas Rangers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 57 of their last 85 games (+26.20 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 54 of their last 85 games (+25.70 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the Run Line in 52 of their last 85 games (+22.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 55 of their last 85 games (+21.50 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 41 games at home (+11.00 Units / 24% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 44-48 against the Run Line (-4.8 Units / -4.14% ROI).
- 45-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.15 Units / -9.43% ROI
- 35-53 when betting on the total runs Over for -23.7 Units / -23.33% ROI
- 53-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +14.9 Units / 14.76% ROI
Rangers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rangers have gone 55-38 against the Run Line (+18.55 Units / 16.2% ROI).
- 54-39 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.25 Units / 3.16% ROI
- 48-39 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.35 Units / 5.23% ROI
- 39-48 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.9 Units / -13.57% ROI
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opposing hitters have a miss rate of just 12% (14/120) against Tanner Bibee when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .122 (5-for-41) against Tanner Bibee’s inside fastball this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .263 — 100th Percentile.
Tanner Bibee has not allowed a home run in any of the last 20.2 innings he’s appeared — Jose Quintana has the longest active streak at 67.1.
Tanner Bibee has allowed a slugging percentage of just .291 (37 Total Bases / 127 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .423 — 96th Percentile.
Rangers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Martin Perez has located his breaking pitches down 100% of the time (9/9) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Martin Perez has a strikeout rate of just 32% (60 SO in 187 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .287 (104-for-363) against Martin Perez this season — 6th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .242 — eighth Percentile.
Martin Perez has allowed an OBP of .339 (348 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .294 — fifth Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Rangers
The Guardians are 27-85 (.241) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .128.
The Guardians were 16-57 (.219) when trailing entering the 7th inning in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .118.
The Guardians are just 5-11 (.312) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Guardians are 11-28 (.282) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .145.
Rangers Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Rangers are just 54-42 (.562) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .699.
The Rangers are just 4-102 (.038) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .091.
The Rangers are just 0-27 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .102.
The Rangers are 47-9 (.839) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .731.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 1,260 strikeouts in 7,058 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have just 1,775 strikeouts in 9,636 PA’s (18%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters have just 465 strikeouts in 2,474 PA’s (19%) against RHP this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Rangers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rangers have scored three or more runs in an inning 74 times (9%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 6%.
Rangers hitters are slugging .474 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
Rangers hitters are slugging .504 at home this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
Rangers hitters are slugging .320 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .270.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 144 of 2,290 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 56 of 830 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Rangers Pitching Stats & Trends
Rangers pitchers have walked 206 of 2,267 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Rangers pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rangers pitchers walked 139 of 1,440 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .199 against Rangers pitchers with the shift this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Rangers vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jacob Odorizzi (Rangers): Shoulder, D60
- Brett Martin (Rangers): Shoulder, D60
- Jacob deGrom (Rangers): Elbow, D60
- Joshua Sborz (Rangers): Biceps, D15
- Shane Bieber (Guardians): Elbow, D15
- Cal Quantrill (Guardians): Shoulder, D15
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Elbow, D60
- Peyton Battenfield (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
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