- The Rangers are -110 favorites vs the Guardians
- Guardians starting pitcher: Hunter Gaddis, 2.89 ERA
- Rangers starting pitcher: Dane Dunning, 4.05 ERA
- Watch the game on BSSWX
The Cleveland Guardians (-110) visit Surprise Stadium to take on the Texas Rangers (-110) on Monday, March 20, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Surprise.
The Rangers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Guardians vs Rangers Over/Under is 11 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Guardians are 5-10 against the spread (ATS), while the Rangers are 8-9 ATS.
Guardians vs. Rangers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +1.5 -185 | O 11 -110 | -110 |
| Rangers | -1.5 +150 | U 11 -110 | -110 |
Guardians vs Rangers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rangers will win Monday‘s Spring Training matchup with 59.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Rangers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Owen Miller has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.30 Units / 78% ROI)
- Luke Maile has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Will Benson has hit the Singles Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Richie Palacios has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 35% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rangers players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rangers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Eli White has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Brad Miller has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Eli White has hit the Hits Over in his last 2 games (+2.20 Units / 107% ROI)
- Corey Seager has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Ezequiel Duran has hit the Runs Over in 1 of his last 2 games at home (+1.10 Units / 55% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 89 of their last 150 games (+26.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 38 away games (+17.75 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 41 away games (+15.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 37 of their last 61 away games (+11.05 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 63 games (+9.45 Units / 14% ROI)
Rangers Best Bets Today:
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 45 games at home (+11.40 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the Run Line in 84 of their last 151 games (+9.55 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+5.50 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+4.30 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games at home (+2.80 Units / 21% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 5-10 against the Run Line (-6.9 Units / -37.1% ROI).
- 5-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.4 Units / -33.07% ROI
- 6-7 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.7 Units / -10.24% ROI
- 7-6 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.5 Units / 3.05% ROI
Rangers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rangers have gone 8-9 against the Run Line (-1.35 Units / -6.18% ROI).
- 8-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.85 Units / -9.3% ROI
- 9-7 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.05 Units / 5.56% ROI
- 7-9 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.75 Units / -14.75% ROI
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hunter Gaddis has limited playing time.
Rangers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Dane Dunning had a strike rate of just 54% (384/708) on sliders last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.
Dane Dunning has located his fastballs down 49% of the time (997/2,029) since the start of the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 97th Percentile.
Dane Dunning threw fastballs down 48% of the time (493/1,027) last season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 28% — 97th Percentile.
Dane Dunning has allowed at least one HR in each of his last seven games dating back to August 18th, 2022 — Gerrit Cole has the longest active streak at 11.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Rangers
The Guardians are 16-57 (.219) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Guardians are 12-60 (.167) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Guardians are 25-7 (.781) when hitting 2 or more home runs last season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Guardians are 14-10 (.583) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Rangers Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Rangers are just 53-11 (.828) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Rangers are just 34-47 (.420) at home last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Rangers are just 65-82 (.442) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits last season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Rangers are just 23-75 (.235) when scoring 4 or fewer runs last season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters slugged just .343 against LHP last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Guardians hitters had 93 extra-base hits out of 341 total hits (just 27%) against LHP last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Guardians hitters struck out just 795 times in 4,584 PA’s (17%) against RHP last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters missed on just 21% of swings last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Rangers Hitting Stats & Trends
Rangers hitters had a swing rate of 37% on the first pitch of at-bats last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Rangers hitters had an OPS of .925 (376 PA’s) against pitchers who had thrown at least 80 pitches in a game last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .732.
The Rangers have a winning percentage of just 43% at home since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Rangers hitters slugged just .331 on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 30 days of the regular season (28 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .582.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers walked 88 of 1,460 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Guardians pitchers walked 435 of 5,989 batters (7%) last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Guardians pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 42% of their games last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rangers Pitching Stats & Trends
Rangers pitchers walked 139 of 1,440 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 46% against Rangers pitchers last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rangers pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 51% of their games last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Rangers pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in 59% of their games since the start of the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rangers vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Brett Martin (Rangers): Shoulder, D60
- Cleveland Guardians – No Injuries Reported
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