Guardians vs Rangers Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 23

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 23, 2022, 3:31 PM
  • The Rangers (65-84) are -125 favorites vs the Guardians (83-67)
  • Guardians starting pitcher: Cody Morris (0-2), 2.29 ERA
  • Rangers starting pitcher: Jonathan Gray (7-7), 3.79 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSSW

The Cleveland Guardians (+105) visit Globe Life Field to take on the Texas Rangers (-125) on Friday, September 23, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05pm EDT in Arlington.

The Rangers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).

The Guardians vs Rangers Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Guardians are 83-66 against the spread (ATS), while the Rangers are 80-68 ATS.

Guardians vs. Rangers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Guardians+1.5 -200O 7.5 -115+105
Rangers -1.5 +165U 7.5 -105-125

Guardians vs Rangers Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Friday‘s matchup with 54.7% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Rangers and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 33 games (+13.10 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Over in 22 of his last 32 away games (+12.90 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Jose Ramirez has hit the Singles Over in 38 of his last 68 games (+12.00 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Shane Bieber has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+11.95 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Myles Straw has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 games (+11.45 Units / 40% ROI)

Best Rangers Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rangers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Nate Lowe has hit the Total Bases Over in 67 of his last 110 games (+23.85 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Martin Perez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 25 of his last 29 games (+22.30 Units / 63% ROI)
  • Marcus Semien has hit the Hits Over in 42 of his last 60 games (+18.75 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Adolis Garcia has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 44 games (+18.35 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Nate Lowe has hit the Singles Over in 53 of his last 84 games (+15.15 Units / 15% ROI)

Rangers vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Adolis Garcia 0.5 +320 0.5 -550
Bubba Thompson 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000
Corey Seager 0.5 +310 0.5 -550
Jonah Heim 0.5 +360 0.5 -650
Josh H. Smith 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000

Rangers vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Adolis Garcia 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Bubba Thompson 0.5 -130 0.5 -110
Corey Seager 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Jonah Heim 0.5 -165 0.5 +115
Josh H. Smith 0.5 -135 0.5 -105

Rangers vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Adolis Garcia 0.5 +150 0.5 -200
Bubba Thompson 0.5 +250 0.5 -400
Corey Seager 0.5 +150 0.5 -225
Jonah Heim 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
Josh H. Smith 0.5 +290 0.5 -500

Rangers vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Cody Morris 3.5 -185 3.5 +125
Jon Gray 3.5 -185 3.5 +125
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 28 away games (+16.45 Units / 51% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 27 away games (+16.00 Units / 49% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 27 away games (+15.85 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 14 games (+6.35 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 20 away games (+6.30 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 61 of their last 110 games (+17.40 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 38 games at home (+12.80 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.60 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.35 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 66 games at home (+1.25 Units / 2% ROI)

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 78-70 against the Run Line (+4.4 Units / 2.37% ROI).

  • 83-66 when betting on the Moneyline for +17.55 Units / 9.44% ROI
  • 66-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.1 Units / -9.23% ROI
  • 74-66 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.15 Units / 0.7% ROI

Rangers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 80-68 against the Run Line (+4.6 Units / 2.41% ROI).

  • 64-84 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.15 Units / -10.64% ROI
  • 73-65 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.05 Units / 1.25% ROI
  • 65-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.55 Units / -8.95% ROI

Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 24% (5/21) against Cody Morris this month (4 games) — tied for 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 43% — sixth Percentile.

Cody Morris has allowed a slugging percentage of .630 (17 Total Bases / 27 ABs) vs left-handed batters this month (4 games) — 9th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: .390 — 10th Percentile.

Cody Morris has allowed an OPS of .984 (31 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this month (4 games) — 10th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: .685 — 12th Percentile.

Cody Morris has walked 9 of 68 batters (13%) this month (4 games) — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 7% — third Percentile.

Jonathan Gray: Rangers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 26% (25/96) against Jon Gray’s curve and slider this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.

The average home run distance against Jon Gray vs left-handed batters since the start of 2020 is 417.6 feet — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 184 total IP; League Avg: 399.3

Right-handed batters are hitting just .193 (43-for-223) against Jon Gray this season — 9th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: .250 — 94th Percentile.

Jon Gray has allowed an OBP of just .246 (240 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 10th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: .306 — 93rd Percentile.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Rangers

The Guardians are 15-55 (.214) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Guardians are 49-5 (.907) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .724.

The Guardians are 11-58 (.159) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Guardians are 18-2 (.900) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .802.

Rangers Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Rangers are just 50-10 (.833) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Rangers are just 46-10 (.821) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .881.

The Rangers are 36-11 (.766) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .724.

The Rangers are just 32-42 (.432) at home this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .527.

Guardians hitters have just 732 strikeouts in 4,279 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters are slugging just .339 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.

Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .640 (1,427 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .714.

Guardians hitters have 84 extra-base hits out of 302 total hits (just 28%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

The Rangers are batting .452 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game over the last 14 days (10 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .280.

Rangers hitters have an OBP of just .298 (7,941 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .313.

Rangers hitters have drawn 256 walks in 3,574 PA’s (7%) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Rangers hitters have an OPS of .940 (346 PA’s) against pitchers who have thrown at least 80 pitches in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .733.

Guardians pitchers have walked 10 of 310 batters (3%) over the past seven days (8 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games on the road this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Guardians pitchers have walked 84 of 1,348 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Guardians pitchers have walked 29 of 573 batters (5%) over the last 14 days (15 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Rangers pitchers have walked 129 of 1,325 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Rangers pitchers have walked 20 of 174 batters (12%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (20 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Rangers pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Rangers pitchers have walked 535 of 5,687 batters (9%) this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Rangers vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Joshua Sborz (Rangers): Elbow, D60
  • Elijah White (Rangers): Wrist, D60
  • Spencer Howard (Rangers): Shoulder, D15
  • Bradley Miller (Rangers): Hip, D60
  • Mitchell Garver (Rangers): Forearm, D60
  • Jonathan Gray (Rangers): Side, D15
  • Joseph Barlow (Rangers): Finger, D15
  • Nicholas Solak (Rangers): Foot, D60
  • Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60
  • Zach Plesac (Guardians): Hand, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.