- The Rays are -150 favorites vs the Guardians
- Guardians starting pitcher: Gavin Williams
- Rays starting pitcher: Shawn Armstrong
- Watch the game on BSSUN
The Cleveland Guardians (+125) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-150) on Saturday, August 12, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in St. Petersburg.
The Rays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Guardians vs Rays Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Guardians are 56-61 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 60-58 ATS.
Guardians vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +1.5 -165 | O 8 +100 | +125 |
| Rays | -1.5 +135 | U 8 -120 | -150 |
Guardians vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 68.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Rays and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Under in 31 of his last 42 games (+11.35 Units / 14% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Total Bases Under in 29 of his last 41 games (+10.70 Units / 17% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+10.60 Units / 39% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.15 Units / 46% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 28 games (+9.90 Units / 29% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 21 games (+13.10 Units / 50% ROI)
- Brandon Lowe has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 21 games at home (+11.35 Units / 38% ROI)
- Wander Franco has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+10.60 Units / 51% ROI)
- Wander Franco has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.40 Units / 57% ROI)
- Randy Arozarena has hit the RBIs Under in 15 of his last 18 games at home (+9.20 Units / 25% ROI)
Rays vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +1350 | 0.5 |
Rays vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +100 |
| Steven Kwan | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
Rays vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jose Siri | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -400 |
Rays vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gavin Williams | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -110 |
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 43 of their last 75 games (+12.20 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games (+8.23 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 14 games (+2.98 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.60 Units / 33% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 37 of their last 59 games at home (+14.15 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 18 games at home (+11.90 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 57 games at home (+9.60 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 60 games at home (+6.25 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 60 games at home (+5.80 Units / 6% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 59-58 against the Run Line (-0.05 Units / -0.03% ROI).
- 56-61 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.95 Units / -12.07% ROI
- 46-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -27.15 Units / -21.18% ROI
- 66-46 when betting on the total runs Under for +15.95 Units / 12.53% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 60-58 against the Run Line (+0.6 Units / 0.43% ROI).
- 70-48 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.95 Units / 1.03% ROI
- 60-54 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.5 Units / 0.38% ROI
- 54-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.75 Units / -9.08% ROI
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Gavin Williams has a strikeout rate of 40% (18 SO in 45 PAs) over the last 14 days (2 games) — best in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Gavin Williams has a strikeout rate of 67% (18 SO in 27 PAs) with two-strikes — tied for best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 41% — 100th Percentile.
Gavin Williams has not allowed a home run in any of the last 32.2 innings he’s appeared — Jose Quintana has the longest active streak at 91.0.
Opponents batted just .048 (1-for-21) against Gavin Williams — 4th best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .239 — 96th Percentile.
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Shawn Armstrong has a strike rate of 73% (363/496) in two strike counts since last season — 4th highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 96th Percentile.
Shawn Armstrong has a strike rate of 70% (976/1,391) since last season — 2nd highest among in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 98th Percentile.
Shawn Armstrong has walked 20 of 354 batters (6%) since last season — tied for 4th best among in MLB; League Avg: 9% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .109 (6-for-55) against Shawn Armstrong’s fastball this season — best among in MLB; League Avg: .249 — 100th Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Guardians are 27-95 (.221) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .129.
The Guardians are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Guardians are just 11-18 (.379) after a home win this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .543.
The Guardians are 11-38 (.224) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .143.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Rays are 13-20 (.394) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .274.
The Rays are just 10-22 (.312) after a win as underdogs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .419.
The Rays are 21-15 (.583) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .446.
The Rays are just 3-8 (.273) after a win as underdogs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .444.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 1,374 strikeouts in 7,693 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Guardians hitters have just 810 strikeouts in 4,386 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have just 231 strikeouts in 1,277 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters have chased 37% of pitches out of the zone in lefty-lefty matchups this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Rays hitters have 131 strikeouts in 377 PA’s (35%) in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Rays hitters have put just 30% of their swings in play in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Rays have a winning percentage of 59% this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 167 of 2,509 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 2.92 (317.1 IP) against division opponents this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.26.
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 3.18 (1003.2 IP) against division opponents since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.08.
The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 40% of their games on the road since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 158 of 2,487 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Rays pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 38% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays pitchers have walked 724 of 10,267 batters (7%) since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Rays pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rays vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jeffrey Springs (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Drew Rasmussen (Rays): Flexor, D60
- Taylor Walls (Rays): Oblique, D10
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Francisco Mejía (Rays): Knee, D10
- Tyler Glasnow (Rays): Back, Day-to-Day
- Shane McClanahan (Rays): Forearm, D15
- Garrett Cleavinger (Rays): Knee, D60
- Josh Fleming (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Shane Bieber (Guardians): Elbow, D60
- Cal Quantrill (Guardians): Shoulder, D15
- Tyler Freeman (Guardians): Shoulder, D10
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Elbow, D60
- David Fry (Guardians): Hamstring, D10
- Joshua-Douglas Naylor (Guardians): Side, D10
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