• The Rays are -125 favorites vs the Guardians
• Guardians vs Rays Over / Under today: 7 Runs
• Guardians / Rays TV Channel: PEAC

The Cleveland Guardians (+105) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-125) on July 26, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 12:15 pm in St. Petersburg, FL.

This season, the Guardians are 54-52 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 60-43 ATS.

Guardians vs Rays Starting Pitchers Today:

• Guardians starting pitcher: Parker Messick 8-5, 2.70 ERA
• Rays starting pitcher: Drew Rasmussen 8-5, 3.27 ERA

Guardians vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Guardians vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 58.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Guardians vs Rays and all games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:

• Patrick Bailey has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games (+16.60 Units / 184% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez has hit the Walks Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+13.05 Units / 26% ROI)
• Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.55 Units / 31% ROI)
• Brayan Rocchio has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+11.25 Units / 41% ROI)
• Angel Martinez has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+8.55 Units / 26% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Ryan Vilade has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games (+16.10 Units / 161% ROI)
• Yandy Diaz has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+12.10 Units / 55% ROI)
• Jonathan Aranda has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+9.75 Units / 24% ROI)
• Cedric Mullins has hit the Singles Under in his last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 56% ROI)
• Jonathan Aranda has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 20 games at home (+8.60 Units / 38% ROI)

Guardians Best Bets Today:

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 35 away games (+9.45 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 50 away games (+8.30 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 30 games (+8.10 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 35 away games (+7.60 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 50 away games (+4.75 Units / 8% ROI)

Rays Best Bets Today:

• The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 50 games at home (+25.80 Units / 45% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 50 games at home (+16.80 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 29 of their last 45 games at home (+13.35 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 50 games at home (+12.65 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Over in 32 of their last 50 games at home (+11.20 Units / 19% ROI)

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 50-55 against the Run Line (-8.9 Units / -6.47% ROI).

• 54-52 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.75 Units / -0.6% ROI
• 50-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.15 Units / -9.63% ROI
• 56-50 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.35 Units / 0.3% ROI

Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Rays are 60-43 against the Run Line (+25 Units / 19.76% ROI).

• 61-43 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.95 Units / 9.34% ROI
• 47-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.9 Units / -8.7% ROI
• 52-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.15 Units / -0.13% ROI

Rays vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today

Rays vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Rays vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Rays

The Guardians are 18-4 (.818) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .698.

The Guardians are 11-1 (.917) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .790.

The Guardians are 18-4 (.818) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2025 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .698.

The Guardians are 11-1 (.917) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2025 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .790.

Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Rays are 37-15 (.712) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .522.

The Rays are 40-20 (.667) after a win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .514.

The Rays are 9-34 (.209) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .135.

The Rays are 51-1 (.981) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .905.

Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends

The Guardians are batting just .193 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB.

Guardians hitters are slugging just .373 this season — lowest in MLB.

Guardians hitters have an OBP of just .262 (441 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB.

Guardians hitters have an OBP of just .240 (272 PA’s) against pitchers who have thrown at least 80 pitches in a game this season — lowest in MLB.

Rays Hitting Stats & Trends

Rays hitters are slugging .277 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB.

The Rays are batting .265 with two outs this season — best in MLB.

Rays hitters have missed on just 20% of swings this season — best in MLB.

The Rays have a winning percentage of 71% at home this season — best in MLB.

Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends

Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Guardians pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB.

Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd best in MLB.

Guardians pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 58 double plays in 766 opportunities (8%) this season — 4th lowest in MLB.

Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% in late innings this season — best in MLB.

Rays Pitching Stats & Trends

Rays pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Rays pitchers have walked 7% of batters this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Rays pitchers have a first-pitch strike rate of 65% this season — 2nd highest in MLB.

Rays pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 36% of their games this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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