Guardians vs Rays Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 29

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 29, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Guardians (50-48) are -105 favorites vs the Rays (53-46)
  • Guardians starting pitcher: Shane Bieber (4-6), 3.54 ERA
  • Rays starting pitcher: Jeffrey Springs (3-2), 2.50 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSSUN

The Cleveland Guardians (-105) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-115) on Friday, July 29, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in St. Petersburg.

The Guardians are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).

The Guardians vs Rays Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Guardians are 50-48 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 45-54 ATS.

Guardians vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Guardians-1.5 +165O 7 -120-105
Rays +1.5 -200U 7 +100-115

Guardians vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Friday‘s matchup with 76.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Rays and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Rays vs Guardians and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Amed Rosario has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+10.85 Units / 63% ROI)
  • Myles Straw has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 away games (+10.60 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Steven Kwan has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 22 away games (+9.60 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Amed Rosario has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+9.00 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 19 games (+8.30 Units / 44% ROI)

Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Wander Franco has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 26 games at home (+14.70 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Wander Franco has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+11.70 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Manuel Margot has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 24 games at home (+11.50 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Shane McClanahan has hit the Pitching Outs Over in his last 10 games (+11.05 Units / 79% ROI)
  • Shane McClanahan has hit the Strikeouts Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+10.55 Units / 43% ROI)

Rays vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Lowe 0.5 +375 0.5 -700
Christian Bethancourt 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Isaac Paredes 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
Ji-Man Choi 0.5 +400 0.5 -800
Josh Lowe 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500

Rays vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Lowe 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Christian Bethancourt 0.5 -165 0.5 +115
Isaac Paredes 0.5 -165 0.5 +120
Ji-Man Choi 0.5 -185 0.5 +130
Josh Lowe 0.5 -155 0.5 +105

Rays vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Lowe 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
Christian Bethancourt 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Isaac Paredes 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
Ji-Man Choi 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Josh Lowe 0.5 +275 0.5 -450

Rays vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jeffrey Springs 4.5 -165 4.5 +120
Shane Bieber 6.5 -165 6.5 +115
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 58 games (+8.95 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 79 games (+8.40 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 44 of their last 79 games (+6.85 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 35 of their last 67 games (+5.70 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.75 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 29 games at home (+10.25 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games at home (+6.15 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 33 games at home (+5.30 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 29 games at home (+5.05 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 19 of their last 32 games (+4.70 Units / 13% ROI)

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 52-46 against the Run Line (+1.7 Units / 1.37% ROI).

  • 50-48 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.45 Units / 2.93% ROI
  • 46-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.7 Units / -3.42% ROI
  • 45-46 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.7 Units / -5.29% ROI

Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 45-54 against the Run Line (-8.85 Units / -7.29% ROI).

  • 53-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.5 Units / -4.73% ROI
  • 46-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.4 Units / -5.96% ROI
  • 49-46 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.1 Units / -1.89% ROI

Shane Bieber has a strikeout rate of just 13% (9 SO in 69 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 10th Percentile.

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 31% (89/283) against Shane Bieber this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 91st Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 33% (153/466) against Shane Bieber this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 89th Percentile.

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 35% (195/562) against Shane Bieber since the start of last season — tied for 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 96th Percentile.

Jeffrey Springs: Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Jeffrey Springs has allowed a slugging percentage of .540 (88 Total Bases / 163 ABs) versus the bottom of the order since the start of 2020 — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .339 — first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .301 (49-for-163) against Jeffrey Springs versus the bottom of the order since the start of 2020 — 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .214 — third Percentile.

Jeffrey Springs has thrown his changeup 34% of the time (371/1,100) this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total CH; League Avg: 16% — 97th Percentile.

Jeffrey Springs allowed a batting average of just .200 versus the top of the order (14th best)– 88th Percentile and .286 versus the bottom of the order this season (15th worst among non-qualified SPs)– 11th Percentile.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Rays

The Guardians are 9-41 (.180) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .087.

The Guardians are 32-4 (.889) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .719.

The Guardians are 33-1 (.971) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .886.

The Guardians are 25-19 (.568) at home this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .525.

Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Rays are 31-18 (.633) at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .525.

The Rays are just 39-7 (.848) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .886.

The Rays are just 44-6 (.880) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .913.

The Rays are 23-6 (.793) when scoring in the first inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .664.

Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Guardians hitters have just 484 strikeouts in 2,776 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters have just 680 strikeouts in 3,702 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .613 (926 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .717.

Rays hitters have 749 strikeouts in 3,095 PA’s (24%) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Rays have scored 1.73 runs per game (446/258) in late innings since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.43.

Rays hitters have an OPS of just .634 (1,119 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .683.

Rays hitters have drawn 203 walks in 1,692 PA’s (12%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

The Guardians have won just 14% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Guardians pitchers have won only 12% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .193 against Guardians pitchers with the shift since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .224.

Guardians pitchers have walked 2 of 86 batters (2%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (10 games) — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Rays pitchers have walked 244 of 3,645 batters (7%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Rays pitchers have won 43% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Rays pitchers have walked 47 of 885 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Rays pitchers have walked 680 of 9,643 batters (7%) since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Rays vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jon Chargois (Rays): Oblique, D60
  • Michael Zunino (Rays): Shoulder, D60
  • Manuel Margot (Rays): Knee, D60
  • Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Jalen Beeks (Rays): Leg, D15
  • Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Brendan McKay (Rays): Shoulder, D60
  • Harold Ramírez (Rays): Thumb, D10
  • Yonny Chirinos (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Wander Samuel Franco (Rays): Wrist, D10
  • Jonathon Feyereisen (Rays): Shoulder, D60
  • Nick Anderson (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Francisco Mejía (Rays): Shoulder, D10
  • Josh Fleming (Rays): Oblique, D15
  • Matthew Wisler (Rays): Neck, D15
  • Kevin Kiermaier (Rays): Hip, D60
  • Tyler Glasnow (Rays): Elbow, D60
  • Oscar Gonzalez (Guardians): Ribs, D10
  • Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
  • Aaron Civale (Guardians): Wrist, D15
  • Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.