- The Guardians (50-48) are -105 favorites vs the Rays (53-46)
- Guardians starting pitcher: Shane Bieber (4-6), 3.54 ERA
- Rays starting pitcher: Jeffrey Springs (3-2), 2.50 ERA
- Watch the game on BSSUN
The Cleveland Guardians (-105) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-115) on Friday, July 29, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in St. Petersburg.
The Guardians are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Guardians vs Rays Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Guardians are 50-48 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 45-54 ATS.
Guardians vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | -1.5 +165 | O 7 -120 | -105 |
| Rays | +1.5 -200 | U 7 +100 | -115 |
Guardians vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Friday‘s matchup with 76.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Rays and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Amed Rosario has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+10.85 Units / 63% ROI)
- Myles Straw has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 away games (+10.60 Units / 38% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 22 away games (+9.60 Units / 29% ROI)
- Amed Rosario has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+9.00 Units / 59% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 19 games (+8.30 Units / 44% ROI)
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Wander Franco has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 26 games at home (+14.70 Units / 55% ROI)
- Wander Franco has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+11.70 Units / 46% ROI)
- Manuel Margot has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 24 games at home (+11.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- Shane McClanahan has hit the Pitching Outs Over in his last 10 games (+11.05 Units / 79% ROI)
- Shane McClanahan has hit the Strikeouts Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+10.55 Units / 43% ROI)
Rays vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lowe | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Isaac Paredes | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Ji-Man Choi | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -800 |
| Josh Lowe | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
Rays vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lowe | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +115 |
| Isaac Paredes | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +120 |
| Ji-Man Choi | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +130 |
| Josh Lowe | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +105 |
Rays vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lowe | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
| Christian Bethancourt | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Isaac Paredes | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| Ji-Man Choi | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Josh Lowe | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -450 |
Rays vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jeffrey Springs | 4.5 -165 | 4.5 +120 |
| Shane Bieber | 6.5 -165 | 6.5 +115 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Guardians Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 58 games (+8.95 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 79 games (+8.40 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 44 of their last 79 games (+6.85 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 35 of their last 67 games (+5.70 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.75 Units / 44% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Rays: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 29 games at home (+10.25 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games at home (+6.15 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 33 games at home (+5.30 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 29 games at home (+5.05 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 19 of their last 32 games (+4.70 Units / 13% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 52-46 against the Run Line (+1.7 Units / 1.37% ROI).
- 50-48 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.45 Units / 2.93% ROI
- 46-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.7 Units / -3.42% ROI
- 45-46 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.7 Units / -5.29% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 45-54 against the Run Line (-8.85 Units / -7.29% ROI).
- 53-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.5 Units / -4.73% ROI
- 46-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.4 Units / -5.96% ROI
- 49-46 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.1 Units / -1.89% ROI
Shane Bieber: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Shane Bieber has a strikeout rate of just 13% (9 SO in 69 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 10th Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 31% (89/283) against Shane Bieber this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 91st Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 33% (153/466) against Shane Bieber this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 89th Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 35% (195/562) against Shane Bieber since the start of last season — tied for 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 96th Percentile.
Jeffrey Springs: Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jeffrey Springs has allowed a slugging percentage of .540 (88 Total Bases / 163 ABs) versus the bottom of the order since the start of 2020 — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .339 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .301 (49-for-163) against Jeffrey Springs versus the bottom of the order since the start of 2020 — 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .214 — third Percentile.
Jeffrey Springs has thrown his changeup 34% of the time (371/1,100) this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total CH; League Avg: 16% — 97th Percentile.
Jeffrey Springs allowed a batting average of just .200 versus the top of the order (14th best)– 88th Percentile and .286 versus the bottom of the order this season (15th worst among non-qualified SPs)– 11th Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Guardians are 9-41 (.180) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .087.
The Guardians are 32-4 (.889) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .719.
The Guardians are 33-1 (.971) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .886.
The Guardians are 25-19 (.568) at home this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .525.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Rays are 31-18 (.633) at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .525.
The Rays are just 39-7 (.848) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .886.
The Rays are just 44-6 (.880) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .913.
The Rays are 23-6 (.793) when scoring in the first inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .664.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Guardians hitters have just 484 strikeouts in 2,776 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters have just 680 strikeouts in 3,702 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .613 (926 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .717.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters have 749 strikeouts in 3,095 PA’s (24%) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Rays have scored 1.73 runs per game (446/258) in late innings since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.43.
Rays hitters have an OPS of just .634 (1,119 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .683.
Rays hitters have drawn 203 walks in 1,692 PA’s (12%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
The Guardians have won just 14% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians pitchers have won only 12% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .193 against Guardians pitchers with the shift since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .224.
Guardians pitchers have walked 2 of 86 batters (2%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (10 games) — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 244 of 3,645 batters (7%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have won 43% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Rays pitchers have walked 47 of 885 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 680 of 9,643 batters (7%) since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Rays vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jon Chargois (Rays): Oblique, D60
- Michael Zunino (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Manuel Margot (Rays): Knee, D60
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Jalen Beeks (Rays): Leg, D15
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Brendan McKay (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Harold Ramírez (Rays): Thumb, D10
- Yonny Chirinos (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Wander Samuel Franco (Rays): Wrist, D10
- Jonathon Feyereisen (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Nick Anderson (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Francisco Mejía (Rays): Shoulder, D10
- Josh Fleming (Rays): Oblique, D15
- Matthew Wisler (Rays): Neck, D15
- Kevin Kiermaier (Rays): Hip, D60
- Tyler Glasnow (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Oscar Gonzalez (Guardians): Ribs, D10
- Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Aaron Civale (Guardians): Wrist, D15
- Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D15
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