- The Guardians are -125 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Guardians starting pitcher: Shane Bieber
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Nicholas Pivetta
- Watch the game on NESN
The Cleveland Guardians (-125) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+105) on Friday, April 28, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.
The Guardians are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Guardians vs Red Sox Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Guardians are 12-13 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 14-12 ATS.
Guardians vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | -1.5 +125 | O 8.5 +100 | -125 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -155 | U 8.5 -120 | +105 |
Guardians vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 69.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+12.25 Units / 23% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 23 games (+10.40 Units / 45% ROI)
- Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Runs Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.45 Units / 37% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 14 games (+7.35 Units / 42% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 14 games (+6.75 Units / 38% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 22 games (+15.75 Units / 61% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+11.50 Units / 82% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+9.70 Units / 41% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+9.20 Units / 36% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+8.90 Units / 99% ROI)
Red Sox vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
Red Sox vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 1.5 +170 | 1.5 -225 |
| Will Brennan | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Rafael Devers | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
Red Sox vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Enrique Hernandez | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Red Sox vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Shane Bieber | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -105 |
| Nick Pivetta | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -150 |
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 18 games (+9.35 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 9 games (+6.90 Units / 71% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 away games (+1.85 Units / 11% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 26 games (+9.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 18 of their last 26 games (+8.90 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.50 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 20 games (+4.85 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games (+4.20 Units / 31% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 9-16 against the Run Line (-6.3 Units / -21.69% ROI).
- 12-13 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.7 Units / -18.98% ROI
- 10-14 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.55 Units / -20.07% ROI
- 14-10 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.05 Units / 11.15% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 14-12 against the Run Line (+1.25 Units / 3.77% ROI).
- 13-13 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.55 Units / -1.8% ROI
- 18-8 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.15 Units / 32.28% ROI
- 8-18 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.3 Units / -42.34% ROI
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Shane Bieber has located his fastball away 64% of the time (92/143) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 40% — 100th Percentile.
Shane Bieber has allowed a slugging percentage of just .082 (4 Total Bases / 49 ABs) with two-strikes this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .264 — 97th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .082 (4-for-49) against Shane Bieber with two-strikes this season — tied for 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .169 — 95th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (17/28) against Shane Bieber in two-strike counts this season — 8th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 91st Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Pivetta has thrown elevated pitches 43% of the time (1,045/2,430) in non-two strike counts since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 37% of Nick Pivetta’s non-fastballs (64/175) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 0 Percentile.
Hitters have chased just 206 of Nick Pivetta’s 888 off-speed pitches out of the zone (23%) since last season — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 33% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .091 (3-for-33) against Nick Pivetta in late innings since last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: .248 — 98th Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Guardians are 20-65 (.235) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .120.
The Guardians are 1-10 (.091) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .040.
The Guardians are 2-8 (.200) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .097.
The Guardians are 21-43 (.328) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .196.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Red Sox are just 6-13 (.316) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are 4-12 (.250) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .097.
The Red Sox are just 7-75 (.085) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .120.
The Red Sox are 7-10 (.412) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .198.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 913 strikeouts in 5,217 PA’s (17%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .345 against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .400.
Guardians hitters have just 1,307 strikeouts in 7,121 PA’s (18%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .386 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .476 (82 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .329.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .510 (49 PA’s) against pitchers who have thrown at least 80 pitches in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .326.
The Red Sox are hitting .429 against pitchers who have thrown at least 80 pitches in the game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Guardians pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 101 of 1,688 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 506 of 6,949 batters (7%) since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 71 of 960 batters (7%) this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% over the past seven days (6 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 6.64 (84.0 IP) against division opponents this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.28.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 13% with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.40 (747.1 IP) against division opponents since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.03.
Red Sox vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Red Sox): Wrist, D10
- Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Martin (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Christian Arroyo (Red Sox): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
- Yu-Cheng Chang (Red Sox): Hand, D10
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Hamstring, D15
- Joely RodrÃguez (Red Sox): Oblique, D15
- Sam D. Hentges (Guardians): Shoulder, D15
- Aaron Civale (Guardians): Oblique, D15
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
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