Guardians vs Red Sox Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 25

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 25, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Guardians (48-46) are -105 favorites vs the Red Sox (48-48)
  • Guardians starting pitcher: Zach Plesac (2-7), 4.02 ERA
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Nicholas Pivetta (8-7), 4.50 ERA
  • Watch the game on NESN

The Cleveland Guardians (-105) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-115) on Monday, July 25, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.

The Guardians are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).

The Guardians vs Red Sox Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Guardians are 48-46 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 50-46 ATS.

Guardians vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Guardians-1.5 +145O 9.5 -120-105
Red Sox +1.5 -175U 9.5 +100-115

Guardians vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Monday‘s matchup with 67.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Amed Rosario has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+10.00 Units / 75% ROI)
  • Myles Straw has hit the Total Bases Under in 23 of his last 34 away games (+9.50 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Amed Rosario has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+9.40 Units / 90% ROI)
  • Myles Straw has hit the Hits Under in 25 of his last 47 away games (+8.80 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+8.25 Units / 55% ROI)

Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Bobby Dalbec has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 14 games at home (+11.20 Units / 80% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+10.00 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Trevor Story has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+9.95 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Jeter Downs has hit the Singles Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Trevor Story has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 11 games at home (+8.65 Units / 74% ROI)

Red Sox vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Christian Vazquez 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600
Franchy Cordero 0.5 +475 0.5 -1100
Jarren Duran 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Xander Bogaerts 0.5 +375 0.5 -700
Amed Rosario 0.5 +475 0.5 -1100

Red Sox vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Christian Vazquez 0.5 -275 0.5 +185
Franchy Cordero 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Jarren Duran 1.5 +160 1.5 -250
Xander Bogaerts 0.5 -275 0.5 +180
Amed Rosario 1.5 +135 1.5 -200

Red Sox vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Christian Vazquez 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Franchy Cordero 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Jarren Duran 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Xander Bogaerts 0.5 +125 0.5 -185
Amed Rosario 0.5 +140 0.5 -200

Red Sox vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Zach Plesac 3.5 -150 3.5 +105
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 75 games (+8.45 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 42 of their last 75 games (+7.85 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 33 of their last 63 games (+5.75 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games (+5.00 Units / 77% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 54 games (+4.80 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 67 games (+9.40 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 43 of their last 76 games (+8.85 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 67 games (+6.55 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 62 games (+6.35 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.65 Units / 37% ROI)

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 50-44 against the Run Line (+2.7 Units / 2.29% ROI).

  • 48-46 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.5 Units / 3.09% ROI
  • 44-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.45 Units / -3.33% ROI
  • 43-44 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.45 Units / -5.27% ROI

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 50-46 against the Run Line (+3.8 Units / 3.17% ROI).

  • 48-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.85 Units / -4.86% ROI
  • 43-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.35 Units / -4.12% ROI
  • 44-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.7 Units / -2.54% ROI

Opponents are hitting .391 (25-for-64) against Zach Plesac with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 47 total IP; League Avg: .240 — first Percentile.

Zach Plesac has allowed a slugging percentage of .609 (39 Total Bases / 64 ABs) with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 47 total IP; League Avg: .390 — second Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 18% (94/520) against Zach Plesac on changeups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 128 total IP; League Avg: 29% — first Percentile.

Zach Plesac has retired the leadoff hitter in each of his last 14 innings — Yimi Garcia has the longest active streak at 23.

Nicholas Pivetta: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Nick Pivetta has thrown elevated pitches 43% of the time (403/936) when behind in the count since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.

Nick Pivetta has thrown elevated pitches 47% of the time (213/454) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.

Nick Pivetta has thrown elevated pitches 42% of the time (1,302/3,087) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.

Nick Pivetta has allowed a slugging percentage of just .206 (13 Total Bases / 63 ABs) on fastballs away this season — tied for 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .343 — 91st Percentile.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Guardians are 8-39 (.170) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Guardians are 31-2 (.939) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Guardians are 30-4 (.882) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .716.

The Guardians are 20-8 (.714) when scoring in the first inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .662.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Red Sox are just 1-38 (.026) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Red Sox are just 6-19 (.240) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .292.

The Red Sox are just 133-19 (.875) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Red Sox are 8-4 (.667) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Guardians hitters are slugging just .324 against LHP this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.

Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .615 (912 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .717.

Guardians hitters have just 655 strikeouts in 3,547 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Red Sox are batting .264 against LHP since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .248.

The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .336 (931 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .318.

Guardians pitchers have walked 19 of 388 batters (5%) over the last 14 days (11 games) — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .192 against Guardians pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .222.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .192 against Guardians pitchers with the shift since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .224.

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Guardians have have still managed to win 39% of the time this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 8.90 (86.0 IP) over the last 14 days (10 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.15.

Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 8.01 (91.0 IP) at home this month (10 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.97.

The Red Sox have allowed 9.30 runs per game (93/10) over the last 14 days (10 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.55.

The Red Sox have allowed 13.33 runs per game (40/3) over the past seven days (3 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.91.

Red Sox vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Julio Martinez (Red Sox): Back, Day-to-Day
  • James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D15
  • Richard Hill (Red Sox): Knee, D15
  • Rafael Devers (Red Sox): Hamstring, D10
  • Connor Seabold (Red Sox): Forearm, D15
  • Michael Wacha (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Enrique Hernández (Red Sox): Hip, D60
  • Matthew Barnes (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
  • Matthew Strahm (Red Sox): Wrist, D15
  • Christian Arroyo (Red Sox): Groin, D10
  • Trevor Story (Red Sox): Hand, D10
  • Tyler Danish (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
  • Joshua Winckowski (Red Sox): COVID-19, D10
  • Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
  • Oscar Gonzalez (Guardians): Ribs, D10
  • Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
  • Aaron Civale (Guardians): Wrist, D15
  • Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.