Guardians vs Red Sox Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 27

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 27, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Red Sox (49-49) are -135 favorites vs the Guardians (49-47)
  • Guardians starting pitcher: Cal Quantrill (7-5), 3.74 ERA
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Nathan Eovaldi (4-3), 4.30 ERA
  • Watch the game on NESN

The Cleveland Guardians (+110) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-135) on Wednesday, July 27, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.

The Red Sox are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).

The Guardians vs Red Sox Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Guardians are 49-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 51-47 ATS.

Guardians vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Guardians+1.5 -175O 8.5 -105+110
Red Sox -1.5 +145U 8.5 -115-135

Guardians vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 72.3% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Amed Rosario has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+10.30 Units / 67% ROI)
  • Steven Kwan has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 20 away games (+10.25 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Amed Rosario has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+9.15 Units / 71% ROI)
  • Myles Straw has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 11 away games (+8.60 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+8.25 Units / 49% ROI)

Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Bobby Dalbec has hit the RBIs Under in 24 of his last 30 games at home (+10.05 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Trevor Story has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+9.95 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Bobby Dalbec has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 16 games at home (+9.20 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Jeter Downs has hit the Singles Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Trevor Story has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 11 games at home (+8.65 Units / 74% ROI)

Red Sox vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
Bobby Dalbec 0.5 +360 0.5 -650
Christian Vazquez 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500
Franchy Cordero 0.5 +475 0.5 -1100
J.D. Martinez 0.5 +360 0.5 -650

Red Sox vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 1.5 +155 1.5 -225
Bobby Dalbec 0.5 -200 0.5 +135
Christian Vazquez 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Franchy Cordero 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
J.D. Martinez 1.5 +165 1.5 -250

Red Sox vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Bobby Dalbec 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Christian Vazquez 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Franchy Cordero 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
J.D. Martinez 0.5 +115 0.5 -160

Red Sox vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Nathan Eovaldi 5.5 +115 5.5 -160
Cal Quantrill 4.5 +115 4.5 -165
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 77 games (+8.55 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 43 of their last 77 games (+6.85 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 56 games (+6.80 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 34 of their last 65 games (+5.70 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.95 Units / 58% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 69 games (+9.35 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 22 of their last 34 games at home (+8.85 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 64 games (+7.05 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 43 of their last 78 games (+6.80 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 69 games (+6.15 Units / 7% ROI)

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 51-45 against the Run Line (+1.7 Units / 1.4% ROI).

  • 49-47 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.6 Units / 3.12% ROI
  • 45-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.5 Units / -3.31% ROI
  • 44-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.6 Units / -5.3% ROI

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 51-47 against the Run Line (+4.5 Units / 3.69% ROI).

  • 49-49 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.25 Units / -5.09% ROI
  • 44-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.4 Units / -4.09% ROI
  • 45-44 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.85 Units / -2.62% ROI

Cal Quantrill has a strikeout rate of just 30% (67 SO in 221 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — third Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 16% (75/479) against Cal Quantrill this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.

Cal Quantrill has struck out just 12% (32/255) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — third Percentile.

Cal Quantrill has a strike rate of just 58% when ahead in the count (tied for 10th lowest)– 16th Percentile and 74% when behind in the count this season (tied for third highest among qualified SPs)– 96th Percentile.

Nathan Eovaldi: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Nathan Eovaldi has a strike rate of 71% (518/725) against right-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.

Nathan Eovaldi has allowed a slugging percentage of .593 (54 Total Bases / 91 ABs) on breaking pitches this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total IP; League Avg: .364 — first Percentile.

Nathan Eovaldi has walked 6 of 268 batters (2%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 6% — 98th Percentile.

Nathan Eovaldi has walked 21 of 456 left-handed batters (5%) since the start of last season — tied for 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 96th Percentile.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Guardians are 33-1 (.971) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .886.

The Guardians are 9-5 (.643) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Guardians are 25-19 (.568) at home this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .523.

The Guardians are 31-4 (.886) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .718.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Red Sox are just 6-20 (.231) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.

The Red Sox are just 1-39 (.025) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Red Sox are 8-4 (.667) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Red Sox are just 134-19 (.876) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.

Guardians hitters are slugging just .323 against LHP this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .400.

Guardians hitters have just 479 strikeouts in 2,705 PA’s (18%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters have just 673 strikeouts in 3,627 PA’s (19%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .615 (922 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .718.

The Red Sox are batting .275 at home since the start of last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Red Sox are batting .262 against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .246.

The Red Sox are batting .275 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Red Sox are batting .259 since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .244.

The Guardians have won just 14% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 22% in close and late situations this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Guardians pitchers have walked 20 of 353 batters (6%) over the last 14 days (10 games) — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .193 against Guardians pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .223.

Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 8.69 (88.0 IP) over the last 14 days (10 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.09.

The Red Sox have allowed 8.90 runs per game (89/10) over the last 14 days (10 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.47.

Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 7.35 (109.0 IP) at home this month (12 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.87.

Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 9.40 (45.0 IP) over the past seven days (5 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.28.

Red Sox vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D15
  • Richard Hill (Red Sox): Knee, D15
  • Rafael Devers (Red Sox): Hamstring, D10
  • Michael Wacha (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Enrique Hernández (Red Sox): Hip, D60
  • Matthew Barnes (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
  • Matthew Strahm (Red Sox): Wrist, D15
  • Christian Arroyo (Red Sox): Groin, D10
  • Trevor Story (Red Sox): Hand, D10
  • Tyler Danish (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
  • Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
  • Oscar Gonzalez (Guardians): Ribs, D10
  • Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
  • Aaron Civale (Guardians): Wrist, D15
  • Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.