Guardians vs Red Sox Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 28

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 28, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Guardians (50-47) are -120 favorites vs the Red Sox (49-50)
  • Guardians starting pitcher: Triston McKenzie (7-6), 3.11 ERA
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Kutter Crawford (2-3), 4.50 ERA
  • Watch the game on NESN

The Cleveland Guardians (-120) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+100) on Thursday, July 28, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.

The Guardians are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).

The Guardians vs Red Sox Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Guardians are 50-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 51-48 ATS.

Guardians vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Guardians-1.5 +135O 9 +100-120
Red Sox +1.5 -160U 9 -120+100

Guardians vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Thursday‘s matchup with 64.2% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Red Sox vs Guardians and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Amed Rosario has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+11.85 Units / 72% ROI)
  • Amed Rosario has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+10.15 Units / 73% ROI)
  • Myles Straw has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 away games (+9.60 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+9.30 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Steven Kwan has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 21 away games (+8.60 Units / 27% ROI)

Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Trevor Story has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+9.95 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+9.15 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Jeter Downs has hit the Singles Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Trevor Story has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 11 games at home (+8.65 Units / 74% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+8.30 Units / 19% ROI)

Red Sox vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 0.5 +625 0.5 -2000
Bobby Dalbec 0.5 +350 0.5 -650
Christian Vazquez 0.5 +575 0.5 -1600
Franchy Cordero 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
J.D. Martinez 0.5 +320 0.5 -550

Red Sox vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 1.5 +175 1.5 -250
Bobby Dalbec 0.5 -150 0.5 +105
Christian Vazquez 0.5 -275 0.5 +180
Franchy Cordero 0.5 -160 0.5 +115
J.D. Martinez 0.5 -250 0.5 +175

Red Sox vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Verdugo 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Bobby Dalbec 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
Christian Vazquez 0.5 +190 0.5 -275
Franchy Cordero 0.5 +210 0.5 -300
J.D. Martinez 0.5 +125 0.5 -175

Red Sox vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Kutter Crawford 4.5 +110 4.5 -160
Triston McKenzie 5.5 -110 5.5 -125
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 78 games (+9.70 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 44 of their last 78 games (+7.85 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 57 games (+7.80 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.95 Units / 61% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 27 of their last 51 away games (+5.90 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 70 games (+10.35 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 23 of their last 35 games at home (+9.85 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 65 games (+6.05 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 43 of their last 79 games (+5.75 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 70 games (+4.80 Units / 5% ROI)

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 52-45 against the Run Line (+2.7 Units / 2.19% ROI).

  • 50-47 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.75 Units / 4.08% ROI
  • 46-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.5 Units / -2.34% ROI
  • 44-46 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.7 Units / -6.27% ROI

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 51-48 against the Run Line (+3.5 Units / 2.85% ROI).

  • 49-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.6 Units / -6.12% ROI
  • 45-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.4 Units / -3.13% ROI
  • 45-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.95 Units / -3.6% ROI

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 32% (92/285) against Triston McKenzie this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — first Percentile.

Triston McKenzie has allowed an OPS of just .371 (98 PA’s) this month (4 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .678 — 100th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 33% (60/181) against Triston McKenzie this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — sixth Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .105 (47-for-446) against Triston McKenzie with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: .167 — 98th Percentile.

Kutter Crawford: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Kutter Crawford has allowed a just .185 SLG vs right-handed batters (fourth best)– 96th Percentile and .647 vs left-handed batters over the last two weeks (tied for fourth worst among qualified SPs)– seventh Percentile.

Kutter Crawford has thrown off-speed pitches 87% of the time (27/31) when he’s behind in the count — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 39% — 100th Percentile.

Kutter Crawford has allowed a slugging percentage of just .185 (5 Total Bases / 27 ABs) against right-handed batters — 4th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .413 — 96th Percentile.

Kutter Crawford has walked 1 of 46 batters (2%) — tied for 9th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — 92nd Percentile.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Guardians are 32-4 (.889) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .719.

The Guardians are 32-2 (.941) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .913.

The Guardians are 9-40 (.184) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .087.

The Guardians are 9-5 (.643) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Red Sox are just 134-20 (.870) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Red Sox are just 1-39 (.025) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .087.

The Red Sox are just 6-20 (.231) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.

The Red Sox are 8-4 (.667) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Guardians hitters are slugging just .323 against LHP this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .400.

Guardians hitters have just 675 strikeouts in 3,669 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .615 (922 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .718.

The Red Sox are batting .274 at home since the start of last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

26% of Red Sox hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

The Red Sox are batting .181 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .349 (1,074 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .326.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .193 against Guardians pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .222.

Guardians pitchers have won only 12% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Guardians pitchers have allowed 207 barreled balls this season — 4th most in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .221 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.

Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 8.67 (54.0 IP) over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.22.

Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 8.70 (89.0 IP) over the last 14 days (10 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.09.

The Red Sox have allowed 9.20 runs per game (92/10) over the last 14 days (10 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.47.

Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 7.17 (118.0 IP) at home this month (13 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.84.

Red Sox vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D15
  • Richard Hill (Red Sox): Knee, D15
  • Rafael Devers (Red Sox): Hamstring, D10
  • Michael Wacha (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Enrique Hernández (Red Sox): Hip, D60
  • Matthew Barnes (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
  • Matthew Strahm (Red Sox): Wrist, D15
  • Christian Arroyo (Red Sox): Groin, D10
  • Trevor Story (Red Sox): Hand, D10
  • Tyler Danish (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
  • Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
  • Oscar Gonzalez (Guardians): Ribs, D10
  • Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
  • Aaron Civale (Guardians): Wrist, D15
  • Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.