- The Guardians (50-47) are -120 favorites vs the Red Sox (49-50)
- Guardians starting pitcher: Triston McKenzie (7-6), 3.11 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Kutter Crawford (2-3), 4.50 ERA
- Watch the game on NESN
The Cleveland Guardians (-120) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+100) on Thursday, July 28, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.
The Guardians are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Guardians vs Red Sox Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Guardians are 50-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 51-48 ATS.
Guardians vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | -1.5 +135 | O 9 +100 | -120 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -160 | U 9 -120 | +100 |
Guardians vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Thursday‘s matchup with 64.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Amed Rosario has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+11.85 Units / 72% ROI)
- Amed Rosario has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+10.15 Units / 73% ROI)
- Myles Straw has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 away games (+9.60 Units / 38% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+9.30 Units / 52% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 21 away games (+8.60 Units / 27% ROI)
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Trevor Story has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+9.95 Units / 35% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+9.15 Units / 53% ROI)
- Jeter Downs has hit the Singles Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Trevor Story has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 11 games at home (+8.65 Units / 74% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+8.30 Units / 19% ROI)
Red Sox vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Bobby Dalbec | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| Christian Vazquez | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Franchy Cordero | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| J.D. Martinez | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
Red Sox vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
| Bobby Dalbec | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +105 |
| Christian Vazquez | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
| Franchy Cordero | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +115 |
| J.D. Martinez | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Red Sox vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Bobby Dalbec | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| Christian Vazquez | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
| Franchy Cordero | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| J.D. Martinez | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -175 |
Red Sox vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kutter Crawford | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -160 |
| Triston McKenzie | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -125 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Guardians Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 78 games (+9.70 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 44 of their last 78 games (+7.85 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 57 games (+7.80 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.95 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 27 of their last 51 away games (+5.90 Units / 10% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Red Sox: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 70 games (+10.35 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 23 of their last 35 games at home (+9.85 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 65 games (+6.05 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 43 of their last 79 games (+5.75 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 70 games (+4.80 Units / 5% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 52-45 against the Run Line (+2.7 Units / 2.19% ROI).
- 50-47 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.75 Units / 4.08% ROI
- 46-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.5 Units / -2.34% ROI
- 44-46 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.7 Units / -6.27% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 51-48 against the Run Line (+3.5 Units / 2.85% ROI).
- 49-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.6 Units / -6.12% ROI
- 45-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.4 Units / -3.13% ROI
- 45-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.95 Units / -3.6% ROI
Triston McKenzie: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 32% (92/285) against Triston McKenzie this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — first Percentile.
Triston McKenzie has allowed an OPS of just .371 (98 PA’s) this month (4 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .678 — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 33% (60/181) against Triston McKenzie this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — sixth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .105 (47-for-446) against Triston McKenzie with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: .167 — 98th Percentile.
Kutter Crawford: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kutter Crawford has allowed a just .185 SLG vs right-handed batters (fourth best)– 96th Percentile and .647 vs left-handed batters over the last two weeks (tied for fourth worst among qualified SPs)– seventh Percentile.
Kutter Crawford has thrown off-speed pitches 87% of the time (27/31) when he’s behind in the count — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 39% — 100th Percentile.
Kutter Crawford has allowed a slugging percentage of just .185 (5 Total Bases / 27 ABs) against right-handed batters — 4th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .413 — 96th Percentile.
Kutter Crawford has walked 1 of 46 batters (2%) — tied for 9th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — 92nd Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Guardians are 32-4 (.889) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .719.
The Guardians are 32-2 (.941) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .913.
The Guardians are 9-40 (.184) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .087.
The Guardians are 9-5 (.643) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Red Sox are just 134-20 (.870) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.
The Red Sox are just 1-39 (.025) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .087.
The Red Sox are just 6-20 (.231) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.
The Red Sox are 8-4 (.667) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .323 against LHP this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .400.
Guardians hitters have just 675 strikeouts in 3,669 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .615 (922 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .718.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .274 at home since the start of last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
26% of Red Sox hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
The Red Sox are batting .181 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .349 (1,074 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .326.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .193 against Guardians pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .222.
Guardians pitchers have won only 12% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Guardians pitchers have allowed 207 barreled balls this season — 4th most in MLB.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .221 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 8.67 (54.0 IP) over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.22.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 8.70 (89.0 IP) over the last 14 days (10 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.09.
The Red Sox have allowed 9.20 runs per game (92/10) over the last 14 days (10 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.47.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 7.17 (118.0 IP) at home this month (13 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.84.
Red Sox vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D15
- Richard Hill (Red Sox): Knee, D15
- Rafael Devers (Red Sox): Hamstring, D10
- Michael Wacha (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Enrique Hernández (Red Sox): Hip, D60
- Matthew Barnes (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew Strahm (Red Sox): Wrist, D15
- Christian Arroyo (Red Sox): Groin, D10
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Hand, D10
- Tyler Danish (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
- Oscar Gonzalez (Guardians): Ribs, D10
- Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Aaron Civale (Guardians): Wrist, D15
- Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D15
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