• The Red Sox are -135 favorites vs the Guardians
• Guardians vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 6.5 Runs
• Guardians / Red Sox TV Channel: ESPN

The Cleveland Guardians (+110) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-135) on September 23, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 pm in Boston, MA.

This season, the Guardians are 82-75 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 74-79 ATS.

Guardians vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:

• Guardians starting pitcher: Foster Griffin 15-5, 3.68 ERA
• Red Sox starting pitcher: Sonny Gray 17-5, 2.85 ERA

Guardians vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Guardians vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 57.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:

• Travis Bazzana has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games (+16.50 Units / 206% ROI)
• Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 away games (+14.90 Units / 31% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 25 away games (+12.65 Units / 24% ROI)
• Steven Kwan has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 25 away games (+12.10 Units / 31% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+10.25 Units / 28% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Adley Rutschman has hit the Walks Under in 18 of his last 20 games (+14.60 Units / 39% ROI)
• Wilyer Abreu has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+13.95 Units / 27% ROI)
• Jahmai Jones has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+11.65 Units / 40% ROI)
• Nick Sogard has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+9.30 Units / 19% ROI)
• Adley Rutschman has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.15 Units / 29% ROI)

Guardians Best Bets Today:

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 50 away games (+9.80 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 30 games (+9.40 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.80 Units / 44% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.25 Units / 49% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 30 away games (+4.65 Units / 11% ROI)

Red Sox Best Bets Today:

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 16 games (+11.90 Units / 67% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 30 games (+11.15 Units / 31% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 25 of their last 40 games at home (+8.50 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 40 games at home (+6.60 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 40 games at home (+4.40 Units / 10% ROI)

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 73-83 against the Run Line (-15.35 Units / -7.7% ROI).

• 82-75 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.45 Units / -1.23% ROI
• 75-80 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.85 Units / -6.94% ROI
• 80-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.55 Units / -2.03% ROI

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 74-79 against the Run Line (-3.55 Units / -1.84% ROI).

• 84-73 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.9 Units / -3.79% ROI
• 70-83 when betting on the total runs Over for -21.95 Units / -12.64% ROI
• 83-70 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.15 Units / 3.58% ROI

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Guardians are 18-20 (.474) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd best in MLB.

The Guardians are 58-5 (.921) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB.

The Guardians are 195-12 (.942) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2024 season — best in MLB.

The Guardians are 32-18 (.640) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Red Sox are 50-34 (.595) after a win this season — 4th best in MLB.

The Red Sox are just 8-42 (.160) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB.

The Red Sox are 62-5 (.925) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB.

The Red Sox are 70-2 (.972) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB.

Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends

Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .648 (1,840 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — lowest in MLB.

Guardians hitters are slugging just .356 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

The Guardians are batting just .231 against LHP this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB.

Guardians hitters have drawn walks in 10% of their PA’s against LHP this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB.

Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends

Red Sox hitters are slugging .241 on pitches out of the zone this season — 3rd best in MLB.

29% of Red Sox hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB.

The Red Sox have a winning percentage of 57% on the road this season — 4th best in MLB.

The Red Sox have won 76% of games in which they have scored first on the road this season — highest in MLB.

Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends

Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB.

Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 4th best in MLB.

Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% in late innings this season — best in MLB.

Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 3.32 (441.2 IP) against division opponents this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends

Red Sox pitchers have walked 8% of batters this season — 3rd best in MLB.

The Red Sox have allowed 0.99 runs per game (155/157) in late innings this season — best in MLB.

Red Sox pitchers have allowed a run just 24% of the time after their offense scores this season — lowest in MLB.

Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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