• The Red Sox are -145 favorites vs the Guardians
• Guardians vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 6.5 Runs
• Guardians / Red Sox TV Channel: GDTV | NESN

The Cleveland Guardians (+118) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-145) on September 24, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45 pm in Boston, MA.

This season, the Guardians are 82-76 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 74-80 ATS.

Guardians vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:

• Guardians starting pitcher: Daniel Espino 0-0, 4.73 ERA
• Red Sox starting pitcher: Ranger Suarez 8-4, 3.30 ERA

Guardians vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Guardians vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 56.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:

• Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 away games (+15.90 Units / 33% ROI)
• Travis Bazzana has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games (+15.50 Units / 172% ROI)
• Steven Kwan has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 25 away games (+12.10 Units / 31% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+10.25 Units / 28% ROI)
• Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+9.60 Units / 40% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Mickey Gasper has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games at home (+20.60 Units / 206% ROI)
• Adley Rutschman has hit the Walks Under in 19 of his last 20 games (+17.30 Units / 45% ROI)
• Trevor Story has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+16.30 Units / 48% ROI)
• Trevor Story has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 20 games (+14.45 Units / 40% ROI)
• Wilyer Abreu has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+13.95 Units / 27% ROI)

Guardians Best Bets Today:

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 50 away games (+9.80 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 30 games (+7.40 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 30 of their last 50 games (+6.45 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 30 away games (+4.65 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+4.30 Units / 30% ROI)

Red Sox Best Bets Today:

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 30 games (+13.75 Units / 39% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 17 games (+12.90 Units / 69% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 13 games (+8.75 Units / 55% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 40 games at home (+6.70 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 40 games at home (+5.80 Units / 9% ROI)

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 74-83 against the Run Line (-14.35 Units / -7.13% ROI).

• 82-76 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.45 Units / -1.73% ROI
• 75-81 when betting on the total runs Over for -13 Units / -7.57% ROI
• 81-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.55 Units / -1.45% ROI

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 74-80 against the Run Line (-4.55 Units / -2.35% ROI).

• 85-73 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.9 Units / -3.29% ROI
• 70-84 when betting on the total runs Over for -23.1 Units / -13.22% ROI
• 84-70 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.15 Units / 4.13% ROI

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Guardians are 18-20 (.474) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd best in MLB.

The Guardians are 59-5 (.922) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB.

The Guardians are 32-18 (.640) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB.

The Guardians were 71-2 (.973) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .856.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Red Sox are 63-5 (.926) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB.

The Red Sox are 71-2 (.973) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB.

The Red Sox are 13-59 (.181) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB.

The Red Sox are just 8-42 (.160) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB.

Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends

Guardians hitters are slugging just .376 this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Guardians hitters are slugging just .355 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

The Guardians are batting just .230 against LHP this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB.

Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .646 (1,851 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — lowest in MLB.

Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends

Red Sox hitters are slugging .240 on pitches out of the zone this season — 4th best in MLB.

Red Sox hitters have 134 extra-base hits out of 359 total hits (37%) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB.

The Red Sox are batting .175 on pitches out of the zone this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB.

The Red Sox are batting .279 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — best in MLB.

Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends

Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB.

Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Guardians pitchers this season — 4th best in MLB.

Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% in late innings this season — best in MLB.

Guardians pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 83 double plays in 1,139 opportunities (7%) this season — tied for lowest in MLB.

Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends

Red Sox pitchers have walked 7% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th best in MLB.

Red Sox pitchers have walked 8% of batters this season — 3rd best in MLB.

Red Sox pitchers have allowed a run just 24% of the time after their offense scores this season — lowest in MLB.

The Red Sox have allowed 3.62 runs per game (293/81) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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