- The Reds are -115 favorites vs the Guardians
- Guardians starting pitcher: Logan Allen
- Reds starting pitcher: Douglas Ashcraft
- Watch the game on BSOH
The Cleveland Guardians (-105) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-115) on Tuesday, August 15, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.
The Reds are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Guardians vs Reds Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Guardians are 57-62 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 74-46 ATS.
Guardians vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +1.5 -190 | O 9.5 -115 | -105 |
| Reds | -1.5 +155 | U 9.5 -105 | -115 |
Guardians vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Under in 31 of his last 42 games (+11.35 Units / 14% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Total Bases Under in 29 of his last 41 games (+10.70 Units / 17% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+10.60 Units / 39% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 23 away games (+9.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 19 games (+8.15 Units / 32% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 20 games at home (+19.65 Units / 52% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+14.05 Units / 56% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+10.55 Units / 36% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 24 games at home (+9.25 Units / 24% ROI)
- Kevin Newman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 10 of his last 12 games at home (+8.75 Units / 61% ROI)
Reds vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Henry Ramos | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +1100 | 0.5 |
Reds vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Will Brennan | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Henry Ramos | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Steven Kwan | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
Reds vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Henry Ramos | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
Reds vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Allen | 4.5 -145 | 4.5 +110 |
| Graham Ashcraft | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -145 |
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 45 of their last 77 games (+14.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.93 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 away games (+4.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 16 games (+2.48 Units / 12% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 59 of their last 89 games (+25.64 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 74 of their last 119 games (+24.55 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 40 of their last 89 games (+16.05 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 36 of their last 60 games at home (+12.00 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Over in 43 of their last 74 games (+7.60 Units / 9% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 61-58 against the Run Line (+1.95 Units / 1.3% ROI).
- 57-62 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.3 Units / -11.48% ROI
- 48-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -25.15 Units / -19.28% ROI
- 66-48 when betting on the total runs Under for +13.8 Units / 10.66% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 74-46 against the Run Line (+23.55 Units / 15.03% ROI).
- 62-58 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.55 Units / 10.41% ROI
- 61-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.5 Units / -1.15% ROI
- 57-61 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.7 Units / -7.48% ROI
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .083 (2 GB hits out of 24 GBs) against Logan Allen with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 46 total IP; League Avg: .251 — 99th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .114 (23-for-201) against Luis Severino when behind in the count in 2022 — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .192 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .174 (8 GB hits out of 46 GBs) against Logan Allen with runners on base this season — 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 46 total IP; League Avg: .254 — 94th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .341 (28-for-82) against Logan Allen when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 46 total IP; League Avg: .262 — sixth Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Graham Ashcraft has allowed an OBP of .372 (274 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .299 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .340 (33-for-97) against Graham Ashcraft’s elevated fastball this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .223 — second Percentile.
Graham Ashcraft has a strikeout rate of just 34% (88 SO in 257 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — sixth Percentile.
Graham Ashcraft has allowed a slugging percentage of .406 (99 Total Bases / 244 ABs) when ahead in the count this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .297 — fifth Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Guardians are 27-95 (.221) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .130.
The Guardians are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Guardians were 16-57 (.219) when trailing entering the 7th inning in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .118.
The Guardians are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Reds are just 12-19 (.387) after a loss as favorites since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .585.
The Reds are 22-39 (.361) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .218.
The Reds are 21-9 (.700) after a win as favorites since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .593.
The Reds are just 62-95 (.395) after a loss since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .484.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .653 (1,305 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .740.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters have just 1,950 strikeouts in 10,632 PA’s (18%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters have a swing rate of just 27% on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
The Reds have a winning percentage of just 44% at home since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
The Reds are 36-23 (.600) against the run line (12.3% ROI) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .494.
Reds hitters slugged just .485 on the first pitch of at-bats in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .560.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
The Guardians have allowed 3.78 runs per game (223/59) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.58.
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 3.61 (2518.0 IP) since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.12.
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 2.92 (317.1 IP) against division opponents this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.28.
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 3.80 (1062.0 IP) this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.32.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have won 51% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Reds pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have walked 1,056 of 10,890 batters (10%) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Curtis Casali (Reds): Foot, D10
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Calf, D60
- Christian Greene (Reds): Hip, D60
- Reiver Sanmartin (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Jake Fraley (Reds): Toe, D10
- Edward Lively (Reds): Pectoral, D15
- Jonathan India (Reds): Heel, D10
- Shane Bieber (Guardians): Elbow, D60
- Cal Quantrill (Guardians): Shoulder, D15
- Tyler Freeman (Guardians): Shoulder, D10
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Elbow, D60
- David Fry (Guardians): Hamstring, D10
- Joshua-Douglas Naylor (Guardians): Side, D10
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