- The Reds are -175 favorites vs the Guardians
- Guardians starting pitcher: Noah Syndergaard
- Reds starting pitcher: Andrew Abbott
- Watch the game on BSOH
The Cleveland Guardians (+145) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-175) on Wednesday, August 16, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.
The Reds are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Guardians vs Reds Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Guardians are 58-62 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 74-47 ATS.
Guardians vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +1.5 -130 | O 9.5 -115 | +145 |
| Reds | -1.5 +105 | U 9.5 -105 | -175 |
Guardians vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 73.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Under in 32 of his last 43 games (+12.35 Units / 15% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 24 away games (+11.25 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 21 games (+9.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Total Bases Under in 29 of his last 42 games (+9.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 31 games (+8.50 Units / 22% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 21 games at home (+18.65 Units / 48% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 21 games at home (+15.05 Units / 57% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 21 games at home (+11.55 Units / 38% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+10.25 Units / 26% ROI)
- Kevin Newman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 13 games at home (+9.85 Units / 64% ROI)
Reds vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -500 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Spencer Steer | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
Reds vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 1.5 +200 | 1.5 -275 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Steven Kwan | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
| Spencer Steer | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
Reds vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Spencer Steer | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
Reds vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Noah Syndergaard | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -105 |
| Andrew Abbott | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -110 |
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 46 of their last 78 games (+15.70 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.93 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+3.48 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 18 away games (+3.15 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.80 Units / 35% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 59 of their last 90 games (+24.64 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 74 of their last 120 games (+22.90 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 40 of their last 90 games (+14.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 36 of their last 61 games at home (+10.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games at home (+6.95 Units / 33% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 62-58 against the Run Line (+3.45 Units / 2.28% ROI).
- 58-62 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.3 Units / -10.74% ROI
- 48-67 when betting on the total runs Over for -26.2 Units / -19.92% ROI
- 67-48 when betting on the total runs Under for +14.8 Units / 11.33% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 74-47 against the Run Line (+21.9 Units / 13.83% ROI).
- 62-59 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.45 Units / 9.48% ROI
- 61-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.55 Units / -1.95% ROI
- 58-61 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.7 Units / -6.65% ROI
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Noah Syndergaard has allowed 58 stolen bases since last season — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Noah Syndergaard has allowed 28 stolen bases this season — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Noah Syndergaard has allowed a slugging percentage of .639 (53 Total Bases / 83 ABs) versus the bottom of the order this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 47 total IP; League Avg: .383 — 0 Percentile.
Noah Syndergaard has had second base stolen on him 47 times since last season — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 26% (42/163) against Andrew Abbott this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 47 total IP; League Avg: 43% — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .143 (10-for-70) against Andrew Abbott’s elevated fastball this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 47 total IP; League Avg: .228 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 27% (53/197) against Andrew Abbott this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 47 total IP; League Avg: 42% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 26% (26/100) against Andrew Abbott on non-fastballs this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 47 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 0 Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Guardians are 27-95 (.221) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .129.
The Guardians are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Guardians are just 7-18 (.280) after a win as underdogs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .439.
The Guardians are 5-50 (.091) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .051.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Reds are 22-39 (.361) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .218.
The Reds are just 40-31 (.563) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .699.
The Reds are just 12-19 (.387) after a loss as favorites since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .585.
The Reds are just 36-47 (.434) after a home loss since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .518.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 1,389 strikeouts in 7,778 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have just 594 strikeouts in 3,194 PA’s (19%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters have an OBP of .334 (2,371 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Reds hitters have 21 strikeouts in 53 PA’s (40%) against LHP over the past seven days (5 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Reds batted just .298 on the first pitch of at-bats in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Reds hitters have 133 strikeouts in 447 PA’s (30%) over the last 14 days (12 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 170 of 2,536 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 3.33 (544.0 IP) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.18.
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 3.60 (2527.0 IP) since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.12.
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 3.18 (1003.2 IP) against division opponents since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.09.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have won 51% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Reds pitchers have walked 1,058 of 10,926 batters (10%) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Reds pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .291 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Reds vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Curtis Casali (Reds): Foot, D10
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Calf, D60
- Christian Greene (Reds): Hip, D60
- Reiver Sanmartin (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Jake Fraley (Reds): Toe, D10
- Edward Lively (Reds): Pectoral, D15
- Jonathan India (Reds): Heel, D10
- Shane Bieber (Guardians): Elbow, D60
- Cal Quantrill (Guardians): Shoulder, D15
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Elbow, D60
- David Fry (Guardians): Hamstring, D10
- Joshua-Douglas Naylor (Guardians): Side, D10
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