• The Guardians are -125 favorites vs the Reds
• Guardians vs Reds Over / Under today: 9 Runs
• Guardians / Reds TV Channel: GDTV | RDTV

The Cleveland Guardians (-125) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+105) on July 28, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 pm in Cincinnati, OH.

This season, the Guardians are 54-53 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 57-46 ATS.

Guardians vs Reds Starting Pitchers Today:

• Guardians starting pitcher: Slade Cecconi 4-7, 4.64 ERA
• Reds starting pitcher: Chase Burns 12-1, 2.43 ERA

Guardians vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Guardians vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 56.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Guardians vs Reds and all games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:

• Patrick Bailey has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games (+16.60 Units / 184% ROI)
• Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+13.65 Units / 30% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez has hit the Walks Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+13.05 Units / 25% ROI)
• Brayan Rocchio has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+11.25 Units / 41% ROI)
• Kyle Manzardo has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+10.20 Units / 35% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Tyler Stephenson has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 25 games at home (+17.15 Units / 38% ROI)
• Eugenio Suarez has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 10 games (+15.30 Units / 153% ROI)
• TJ Friedl has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+11.20 Units / 43% ROI)
• Eugenio Suarez has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+11.00 Units / 24% ROI)
• TJ Friedl has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+9.15 Units / 29% ROI)

Guardians Best Bets Today:

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 30 away games (+10.75 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 30 games (+10.10 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 40 away games (+8.55 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 50 away games (+8.30 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 50 away games (+4.60 Units / 8% ROI)

Reds Best Bets Today:

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 25 games at home (+12.15 Units / 42% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 21 games at home (+9.75 Units / 37% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 20 games at home (+7.65 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 40 games (+6.50 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.70 Units / 72% ROI)

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 51-55 against the Run Line (-7.9 Units / -5.66% ROI).

• 54-53 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.75 Units / -1.38% ROI
• 50-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.15 Units / -10.41% ROI
• 57-50 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.35 Units / 1.13% ROI

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Reds are 57-46 against the Run Line (-1.9 Units / -1.29% ROI).

• 49-55 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.2 Units / -4.49% ROI
• 56-47 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.25 Units / 3.7% ROI
• 47-56 when betting on the total runs Under for -14 Units / -12.3% ROI

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Guardians are 18-4 (.818) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .699.

The Guardians are 11-1 (.917) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .792.

The Guardians are 18-4 (.818) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2025 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .699.

The Guardians are 11-1 (.917) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2025 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .792.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Reds are just 4-15 (.211) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Reds are 5-48 (.094) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .052.

The Reds are just 22-28 (.440) at home this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .522.

The Reds are just 5-29 (.147) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.

Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends

The Guardians have answered-back in just 25% of innings after an opponent scores this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

The Guardians have hit 513 balls in play with an exit velocity over 100 MPH this season — fewest in MLB.

The Guardians have won 82% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB.

The Guardians have won just 63% of road games in which they have scored three or more runs in an inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Reds Hitting Stats & Trends

The Reds have an xwOBA of just .307 this season — lowest in MLB.

The Reds have scored first in just 41% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

The Reds have a winning percentage of just 44% at home this season — 4th lowest in MLB.

The Reds have answered-back in just 22% of innings after an opponent scores in late innings this season — 4th lowest in MLB.

Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends

Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Guardians pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB.

Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — 4th best in MLB.

Guardians pitchers have allowed innings of 3+ runs in 4% of innings played this season — lowest in MLB.

Guardians pitchers have won 33% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB.

Reds Pitching Stats & Trends

Reds pitchers have walked 11% of batters this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB.

The Reds pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 66% of their games at home this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB.

The Reds pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 52% of their games on the road this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB.

Reds pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.5 MPH (2,570 batted balls) this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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