Guardians vs Royals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 10

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 10, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Guardians (41-41) are -115 favorites vs the Royals (31-52)
  • Guardians starting pitcher: Zach Plesac (2-6), 3.79 ERA
  • Royals starting pitcher: Donald Greinke (2-5), 4.85 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSKC

The Cleveland Guardians (-115) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (-105) on Sunday, July 10, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Kansas City.

The Guardians are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).

The Guardians vs Royals Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Guardians are 41-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 35-48 ATS.

Guardians vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Guardians-1.5 +135O 9 -110-115
Royals +1.5 -160U 9 -110-105

Guardians vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Sunday‘s matchup with 61.7% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Royals and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Franmil Reyes has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+6.40 Units / 91% ROI)
  • Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+6.35 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Franmil Reyes has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 5 games (+5.90 Units / 118% ROI)
  • Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.90 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Amed Rosario has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 11 away games (+5.65 Units / 26% ROI)

Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Andrew Benintendi has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+9.10 Units / 27% ROI)
  • MJ Melendez has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 22 games at home (+8.15 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Andrew Benintendi has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+8.10 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Andrew Benintendi has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+7.75 Units / 56% ROI)
  • MJ Melendez has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+7.45 Units / 30% ROI)

Royals vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andrew Benintendi 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Bobby Witt Jr. 0.5 +350 0.5 -650
Hunter Dozier 0.5 +350 0.5 -650
MJ Melendez 0.5 +375 0.5 -700
Nicky Lopez 0.5 +1250 0.5

Royals vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andrew Benintendi 1.5 +170 1.5 -250
Bobby Witt Jr. 1.5 +190 1.5 -275
Hunter Dozier 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
MJ Melendez 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Nicky Lopez 0.5 -200 0.5 +145

Royals vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andrew Benintendi 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
Bobby Witt Jr. 0.5 +125 0.5 -185
Hunter Dozier 0.5 +135 0.5 -200
MJ Melendez 0.5 +150 0.5 -200
Nicky Lopez 0.5 +250 0.5 -375

Royals vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Zack Greinke 2.5 -185 2.5 +125
Zach Plesac 3.5 -105 3.5 -140
Zack Greinke 3.5 +140 3.5 -200
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 29 of their last 51 games (+8.25 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 51 games (+5.45 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 63 games (+5.20 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 22 away games (+4.50 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 42 games (+3.25 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 29 games (+7.80 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games at home (+6.35 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.85 Units / 65% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+3.75 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.95 Units / 14% ROI)

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 42-40 against the Run Line (-0.8 Units / -0.78% ROI).

  • 41-41 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.25 Units / 0.25% ROI
  • 38-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.2 Units / -4.63% ROI
  • 38-38 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.7 Units / -4.11% ROI

Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 35-48 against the Run Line (-25.4 Units / -22.59% ROI).

  • 31-52 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.75 Units / -18.85% ROI
  • 41-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.5 Units / -0.55% ROI
  • 38-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.35 Units / -7.98% ROI

Zach Plesac has struck out just 12% (20/172) of left-handed batters he faced this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — second Percentile.

Zach Plesac has allowed an OPS of 1.013 (60 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .671 — first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .200 (9-for-45) against Zach Plesac on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .330 — 100th Percentile.

Zach Plesac has allowed a slugging percentage of .596 (31 Total Bases / 52 ABs) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .368 — first Percentile.

Donald Greinke: Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Zack Greinke has struck out just 8% (10/121) of left-handed batters he faced this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: 22% — first Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 70% (115/165) against Zack Greinke’s changeup since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 51% — 100th Percentile.

Zack Greinke has a strikeout rate of just 12% (34 SO in 293 PAs) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 0 Percentile.

Zack Greinke has thrown his changeup for a strike just 53% (432/821) of the time since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 62% — third Percentile.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Royals

The Guardians are 8-35 (.186) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .083.

The Guardians are 8-5 (.615) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Guardians are 25-3 (.893) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .712.

The Guardians are 25-1 (.962) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .916.

Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Royals are just 0-25 (.000) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .332.

The Royals are just 24-6 (.800) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .888.

The Royals are just 23-3 (.885) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .916.

The Royals are just 31-43 (.419) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.

Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Guardians hitters have just 384 strikeouts in 2,206 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .608 (889 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .715.

Guardians hitters are slugging just .320 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .397.

Royals hitters have just 479 strikeouts in 2,537 PA’s (19%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Royals have won just 36% of home games in which they have scored three or more runs in an inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 77%.

Royals hitters have just 151 strikeouts in 844 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Royals hitters have just 580 strikeouts in 2,998 PA’s (19%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 38% of their games on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 42% against Guardians pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Guardians pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 38% of their games this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Guardians pitchers over the last 14 days (15 games) — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% versus the heart of the order this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Royals pitchers have walked 923 of 9,368 batters (10%) since the start of last season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Royals pitchers have walked 35 of 285 batters (12%) over the past seven days (7 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Royals vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Joshua Staumont (Royals): Neck, D15
  • Salvador Perez (Royals): Thumb, D10
  • Jonathan Heasley (Royals): Shoudler, D15
  • Daniel A. Lynch (Royals): Blister, D15
  • Whitley Merrifield (Royals): Toe, Day-to-Day
  • Raúl Mondesi (Royals): Knee, D60
  • Jacob Brentz (Royals): Flexor, D60
  • Tyler Zuber (Royals): Shoulder, D60
  • Oscar Gonzalez (Guardians): Ribs, D10
  • Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
  • Carlos Vargas (Guardians): Elbow, D60
  • Joshua-Douglas Naylor (Guardians): Back, Day-to-Day
  • Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.