- The Guardians are -105 favorites vs the Royals
- Guardians vs Royals Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Guardians / Royals TV Channel: ATV
The Cleveland Guardians (-105) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (-115) on Friday, July 25, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Kansas City, MO, MO.
This season, the Guardians are 51-51 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 53-50 ATS.
Guardians vs Royals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Guardians starting pitcher: Gavin Williams 6-4, 3.57 ERA
- Royals starting pitcher: Michael Wacha 4-9, 3.63 ERA
Guardians vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | -1.5 +165 | O 8.5 -120 | -105 |
| Royals | +1.5 -200 | U 8.5 +100 | -115 |
Guardians vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Royals will win Friday‘s MLB game with 51.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Angel Martinez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 away games (+21.40 Units / 357% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.50 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.35 Units / 55% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 away games (+9.15 Units / 29% ROI)
- Gavin Williams has hit the Walks Allowed Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+9.05 Units / 43% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jac Caglianone has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+16.65 Units / 67% ROI)
- John Rave has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+16.50 Units / 330% ROI)
- Jac Caglianone has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+15.55 Units / 44% ROI)
- Jac Caglianone has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+14.05 Units / 41% ROI)
- Jac Caglianone has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+13.75 Units / 42% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 31 away games (+13.35 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 28 away games (+12.05 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 57 of their last 99 games (+9.94 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 14 games (+8.30 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.30 Units / 30% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 70 of their last 103 games (+34.75 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 34 of their last 49 games at home (+18.95 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 58 of their last 95 games (+18.30 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+5.05 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 36 of their last 79 games (+4.00 Units / 4% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 54-47 against the Run Line (+1.6 Units / 1.16% ROI).
- 51-51 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.35 Units / 0.3% ROI
- 45-53 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.05 Units / -10.86% ROI
- 53-45 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.65 Units / 3.22% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 53-50 against the Run Line (-9.05 Units / -6.22% ROI).
- 50-53 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.1 Units / -2.51% ROI
- 41-61 when betting on the total runs Over for -25.17 Units / -22.42% ROI
- 61-41 when betting on the total runs Under for +15.8 Units / 13.82% ROI
Royals vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Kyle Manzardo (CLE) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Bo Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Royals vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Angel Martínez (CLE) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Maikel Garcia (KC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jonathan India (KC) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Royals vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Kyle Manzardo (CLE) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -220 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
Royals vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gavin Williams (CLE) | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 +105 |
| Michael Wacha (KC) | 4.5 +130 | 4.5 -165 |
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Gavin Williams has walked 14% of batters when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Gavin Williams has walked 15% of opponent 7-8-9 hitters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — first Percentile.
Gavin Williams has allowed a batting average of .286 vs right-handed batters (tied for sixth worst)– 10th Percentile and just .151 vs left-handed batters this season (best among qualified SPs)– 100th Percentile.
Gavin Williams has walked 13% of batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael Wacha has thrown his breaking pitches for a strike just 51% (405/796) of the time since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 105 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.
Michael Wacha has allowed a slugging percentage of just .232 (47 Total Bases / 203 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .354 — 98th Percentile.
Michael Wacha has recorded 17 of his 39 strikeouts (44%) vs left-handed batters with his changeup this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .163 (33-for-203) against Michael Wacha’s non-fastballs this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .215 — 96th Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Guardians are 22-0 (.957) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .745.
The Guardians are 112-5 (.957) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .865.
The Guardians are 23-12 (.657) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses this season They play the Royals (Ranks 29th runs scored) today.
The Guardians are 42-2 (.955) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .908.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Royals were just 4-50 (.074) when they allowed 5 or more runs in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .196.
The Royals are 16-2 (.889) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .713.
The Royals are 18-2 (.900) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .797.
The Royals are 45-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .957.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .554 (465 PA’s) in righty-righty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .706.
The Guardians are batting just .296 in hitter’s counts since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .337.
Guardians hitters have chased 41% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
The Guardians are batting just .206 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have drawn walks in 6% of their PA’s against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Royals hitters have drawn walks in 6% of their PA’s this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Royals hitters have an OPS of just .879 (701 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.067.
Royals hitters have struck out in just 19% of their PA’s this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .207 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Guardians pitchers have walked 10% of batters this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .223 against Guardians pitchers in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 26% against the Guardians pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
The longest HR allowed by the Royals pitchers in the 2024 season traveled 519.4 feet — — longest in MLB; League Avg: 470.4
Royals pitchers have an ERA of 3.50 (915.0 IP) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.09.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Royals pitchers over the last 14 days — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Royals have allowed 3.77 runs per game (200/53) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.44.
More MLB Reading:
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