Guardians vs Royals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 8

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(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 08, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Royals (30-51) are -125 favorites vs the Guardians (40-40)
  • Guardians starting pitcher: Aaron Civale (2-5), 7.04 ERA
  • Royals starting pitcher: Brady Singer (3-3), 4.29 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSKC

The Cleveland Guardians (+105) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (-125) on Friday, July 8, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Kansas City.

The Royals are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).

The Guardians vs Royals Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Guardians are 40-40 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 35-46 ATS.

Guardians vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Guardians+1.5 -190O 8.5 +100+105
Royals -1.5 +155U 8.5 -120-125

Guardians vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Friday‘s matchup with 63.2% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Royals and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Under in his last 7 away games (+7.00 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Amed Rosario has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+6.55 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 66% ROI)
  • Amed Rosario has hit the Singles Under in 7 of his last 10 away games (+6.00 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Owen Miller has hit the Runs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 49% ROI)

Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Andrew Benintendi has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+12.90 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Andrew Benintendi has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+8.50 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Andrew Benintendi has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+7.25 Units / 65% ROI)
  • Whit Merrifield has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+7.00 Units / 68% ROI)
  • MJ Melendez has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+6.15 Units / 17% ROI)

Royals vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bobby Witt Jr. 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
MJ Melendez 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Michael A. Taylor 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Amed Rosario 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000
Andres Gimenez 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600

Royals vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andrew Benintendi 1.5 +170 1.5 -250
Bobby Witt Jr. 1.5 +185 1.5 -275
Hunter Dozier 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Michael A. Taylor 0.5 -165 0.5 +120
Vinnie Pasquantino 0.5 -225 0.5 +150

Royals vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andrew Benintendi 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Hunter Dozier 0.5 +135 0.5 -190
Michael A. Taylor 0.5 +190 0.5 -275
Vinnie Pasquantino 0.5 +160 0.5 -225
Whit Merrifield 0.5 +190 0.5 -275

Royals vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brady Singer 3.5 -155 3.5 +110
Aaron Civale 3.5 -150 3.5 +105
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 28 of their last 49 games (+8.25 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 49 games (+5.45 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 61 games (+5.20 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 20 away games (+2.30 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 40 games (+1.25 Units / 3% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 27 games (+10.00 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games at home (+6.55 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+6.10 Units / 75% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in their last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 90% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.35 Units / 39% ROI)

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 40-40 against the Run Line (-3 Units / -3.01% ROI).

  • 40-40 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.25 Units / 0.26% ROI
  • 37-37 when betting on the total runs Over for -4 Units / -4.52% ROI
  • 37-37 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.7 Units / -4.21% ROI

Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 35-46 against the Run Line (-23 Units / -20.9% ROI).

  • 30-51 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.75 Units / -19.35% ROI
  • 40-37 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.3 Units / -0.34% ROI
  • 37-40 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.35 Units / -8.15% ROI

Aaron Civale has allowed a slugging percentage of .700 (70 Total Bases / 100 ABs) on elevated fastballs since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: .384 — 0 Percentile.

Aaron Civale has an ERA of 6.85 (46.0 IP)this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 3.81 — second Percentile.

Aaron Civale has a strike rate of just 60% (517/861) in two strike counts since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: 65% — third Percentile.

Aaron Civale has located his fastball up for a strike just 51% (251/495) of the time since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: 60% — third Percentile.

Brady Singer: Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Brady Singer has allowed an OPS of .670 (440 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: .508 — second Percentile.

Brady Singer has allowed a slugging percentage of .388 (156 Total Bases / 402 ABs) with two-strikes since the start of last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: .271 — third Percentile.

Opponents have a swing rate of just 23% (190/830) against Brady Singer on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: 31% — second Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 55% (158/286) against Brady Singer since the start of last season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 95th Percentile.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Royals

The Guardians are 25-1 (.962) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .891.

The Guardians are 8-35 (.186) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .081.

The Guardians are 7-32 (.179) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .109.

The Guardians are 24-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .919.

Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Royals are just 0-24 (.000) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .331.

The Royals are just 24-6 (.800) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .891.

The Royals are 5-3 (.625) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Royals are just 4-38 (.095) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .202.

Guardians hitters are slugging just .321 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .398.

Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .609 (884 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .715.

Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Guardians hitters have just 368 strikeouts in 2,120 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Royals hitters have just 478 strikeouts in 2,534 PA’s (19%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Royals hitters are slugging just .338 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .445.

Royals hitters have just 579 strikeouts in 2,995 PA’s (19%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Royals hitters have an OBP of just .304 (1,121 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .326.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Guardians pitchers this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Guardians pitchers have walked 8 of 59 batters (14%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (7 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Guardians pitchers have won only 13% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .218 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.

Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% versus the heart of the order this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Royals pitchers have walked 917 of 9,277 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Royals pitchers have walked 326 of 3,150 batters (10%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Royals have allowed 1.78 runs per game (144/81) in late innings this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.

Royals vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Joshua Staumont (Royals): Neck, D15
  • Salvador Perez (Royals): Thumb, D10
  • Daniel A. Lynch (Royals): Blister, D15
  • Raúl Mondesi (Royals): Knee, D60
  • Jacob Brentz (Royals): Flexor, D60
  • Tyler Zuber (Royals): Shoulder, D60
  • Joshua-Douglas Naylor (Guardians): Back, Day-to-Day
  • Austin Hedges (Guardians): Concussion, D7
  • Oscar Gonzalez (Guardians): Ribs, D10
  • Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
  • Carlos Vargas (Guardians): Elbow, D60
  • Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.