- The Guardians are -135 favorites vs the Royals
- Guardians starting pitcher: Logan Allen
- Royals starting pitcher: Austin Cox
- Watch the game on BSKC
The Cleveland Guardians (-135) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+115) on Wednesday, June 28, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Kansas City.
The Guardians are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Guardians vs Royals Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Guardians are 38-40 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 30-49 ATS.
Guardians vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | -1.5 +110 | O 9.5 -110 | -135 |
| Royals | +1.5 -130 | U 9.5 -110 | +115 |
Guardians vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 58.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Royals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Will Brennan has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 18 away games (+13.90 Units / 42% ROI)
- Will Brennan has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 22 games (+11.85 Units / 42% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Over in 30 of his last 50 games (+11.10 Units / 21% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Over in 22 of his last 41 games (+10.35 Units / 25% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 28 games (+9.85 Units / 28% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+12.60 Units / 33% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+12.25 Units / 46% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+10.70 Units / 23% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 23 games at home (+10.65 Units / 46% ROI)
- Nick Pratto has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 24 games (+10.50 Units / 28% ROI)
Royals vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Dairon Blanco | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Freddy Fermin | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
Royals vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Will Brennan | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
| Dairon Blanco | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Freddy Fermin | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Steven Kwan | 1.5 +135 | 1.5 -175 |
Royals vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Dairon Blanco | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Freddy Fermin | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 62 games (+17.15 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 36 games (+8.05 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 18 of their last 27 games (+7.85 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 33 games (+6.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 27 games (+4.80 Units / 15% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 14 games at home (+9.65 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 44 of their last 75 games (+9.40 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 58 games (+8.25 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.80 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 7 games (+1.90 Units / 27% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 37-41 against the Run Line (-4.2 Units / -4.24% ROI).
- 38-40 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.75 Units / -9.84% ROI
- 29-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.55 Units / -23.98% ROI
- 45-29 when betting on the total runs Under for +13.3 Units / 15.47% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 30-49 against the Run Line (-28.15 Units / -28.64% ROI).
- 22-57 when betting on the Moneyline for -27.6 Units / -33.39% ROI
- 35-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.35 Units / -13.09% ROI
- 42-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.05 Units / 3.5% ROI
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Logan Allen has allowed a slugging percentage of just .296 (32 Total Bases / 108 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — tied for 12th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 30 total IP; League Avg: .381 — 91st Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .053 (1 GB hit out of 19 GBs) against Logan Allen with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 30 total IP; League Avg: .247 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .410 (43-for-105) against Logan Allen in non-two strike counts this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 30 total IP; League Avg: .337 — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 66% (23/35) against Logan Allen’s changeup this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 30 total IP; League Avg: 51% — 95th Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Austin Cox has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 12.1 innings pitched — Elvis Peguero has the longest active streak at 19.2.
Austin Cox has allowed a slugging percentage of just .074 (2 Total Bases / 27 ABs) — 13th best among among 236 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .365 — 94th Percentile.
Austin Cox has pitched 12.1 straight innings without allowing an earned run — Scott McGough has the longest active streak at 22.1.
Opponents are hitting just .074 (2-for-27) against Austin Cox over the last 14 days (4 games) — 5th best in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: .233 — 95th Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Guardians are 26-80 (.245) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .126.
The Guardians are 5-31 (.139) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Guardians are 18-86 (.173) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .092.
The Guardians are 26-63 (.292) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .201.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Royals are just 5-21 (.192) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .605.
The Royals are just 10-29 (.256) at home this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .527.
The Royals are just 11-32 (.256) after a road win since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .489.
The Royals are just 21-51 (.292) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 1,192 strikeouts in 6,651 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have just 1,674 strikeouts in 9,053 PA’s (18%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .372 against RHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Guardians hitters struck out just 795 times in 4,584 PA’s (17%) against RHP in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 26% at home this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
The Royals have won just 32% of games in which they have scored first on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 63%.
The Royals are batting just .199 with two outs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .239.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 28% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 138 of 2,155 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 55 of 461 batters (12%) over the last 14 days (12 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Royals have won just 10% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Royals pitchers have walked 869 of 9,204 batters (9%) since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Royals have won just 20% of games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Royals pitchers have allowed a run 37% of the time after an opposing score since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Royals vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Amir Garrett (Royals): Elbow, D15
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Elbow, D60
- Vincent Pasquantino (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Kristofer Bubic (Royals): Flexor, D60
- Michael Massey (Royals): Hand, D10
- Matthew Beaty (Royals): Concussion Protocol, D7
- Ryan Yarbrough (Royals): Head, D60
- Angel Zerpa (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Joshua Staumont (Royals): Neck, D15
- Brad Keller (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Diego Hernandez (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Josh Taylor (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Elbow, D15
- Peyton Battenfield (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Cal Quantrill (Guardians): Shoulder, D15
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