- The Guardians are -150 favorites vs the Royals
- Guardians starting pitcher: Shane Bieber
- Royals starting pitcher: Donald Greinke
- Watch the game on BSKC
The Cleveland Guardians (-150) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+125) on Thursday, June 29, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Kansas City.
The Guardians are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Guardians vs Royals Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Guardians are 39-40 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 30-50 ATS.
Guardians vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | -1.5 +105 | O 9 -120 | -150 |
| Royals | +1.5 -130 | U 9 +100 | +125 |
Guardians vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 73.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Royals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Will Brennan has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 away games (+12.90 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+12.05 Units / 45% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Over in 23 of his last 42 games (+11.35 Units / 27% ROI)
- Will Brennan has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 23 games (+10.85 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 47 games (+10.75 Units / 11% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+12.60 Units / 33% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+12.25 Units / 46% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 24 games at home (+11.70 Units / 48% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+10.70 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jordan Lyles has hit the Earned Runs Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.35 Units / 49% ROI)
Royals vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Maikel Garcia | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
Royals vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| Will Brennan | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
| Amed Rosario | 1.5 +140 | 1.5 -185 |
| Steven Kwan | 1.5 +140 | 1.5 -190 |
| Maikel Garcia | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
Royals vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Maikel Garcia | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Royals vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Shane Bieber | 5.5 -125 | 5.5 -105 |
| Zack Greinke | 2.5 -105 | 2.5 -125 |
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 63 games (+16.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 37 games (+9.15 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 28 games (+8.85 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 28 games (+5.80 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.45 Units / 32% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 15 games at home (+10.65 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 45 of their last 76 games (+10.40 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 59 games (+7.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.50 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 8 games (+0.90 Units / 11% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 38-41 against the Run Line (-3.1 Units / -3.1% ROI).
- 39-40 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.75 Units / -8.71% ROI
- 30-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.55 Units / -22.54% ROI
- 45-30 when betting on the total runs Under for +12.15 Units / 13.94% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 30-50 against the Run Line (-29.45 Units / -29.57% ROI).
- 22-58 when betting on the Moneyline for -28.6 Units / -34.19% ROI
- 36-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.35 Units / -11.79% ROI
- 42-36 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.9 Units / 2.15% ROI
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Shane Bieber has located his fastball away 65% of the time (328/503) this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Shane Bieber has located his fastball away 65% of the time (328/503) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 41% — 100th Percentile.
Shane Bieber has located his fastball away 65% of the time (328/503) this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Shane Bieber has located his pitches away 60% of the time (907/1,522) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zack Greinke has walked 11 of 338 batters (3%) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 18% (113/618) against Zack Greinke this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — fourth Percentile.
Zack Greinke has an average fastball velocity of just 89.6 MPH this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 93.7 — fifth Percentile.
Zack Greinke has allowed a slugging percentage of .804 (41 Total Bases / 51 ABs) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: .438 — third Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Guardians are 26-80 (.245) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .126.
The Guardians are 5-31 (.139) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Guardians are 26-63 (.292) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .202.
The Guardians are 10-23 (.303) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .142.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Royals are just 5-21 (.192) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .608.
The Royals are just 10-30 (.250) at home this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .525.
The Royals are just 7-65 (.097) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .356.
The Royals are just 6-11 (.353) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .686.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 1,203 strikeouts in 6,714 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 22% of swings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters have just 1,688 strikeouts in 9,138 PA’s (18%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .658 (2,424 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .722.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 26% at home this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
The Royals have won just 44% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.
The Royals are batting just .197 with two outs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .239.
The Royals have won just 38% of games in which they have scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 67%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 138 of 2,173 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Guardians pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 3.20 (870.1 IP) against division opponents since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.06.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have allowed a run 37% of the time after an opposing score since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
The Royals have won just 10% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% with runners in scoring position since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Royals have won just 20% of games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Royals vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Amir Garrett (Royals): Elbow, D15
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Elbow, D60
- Vincent Pasquantino (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Kristofer Bubic (Royals): Flexor, D60
- Michael Massey (Royals): Hand, D10
- Matthew Beaty (Royals): Concussion, D7
- Ryan Yarbrough (Royals): Head, D60
- Angel Zerpa (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Nicholas Lopez (Royals): Hand, Day-to-Day
- Joshua Staumont (Royals): Neck, D15
- Brad Keller (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Diego Hernandez (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Josh Taylor (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Elbow, D15
- Peyton Battenfield (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Cal Quantrill (Guardians): Shoulder, D15
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