- The Royals are -110 favorites vs the Guardians
- Guardians starting pitcher: Xzavion Curry, 5.40 ERA
- Royals starting pitcher: Daniel A. Lynch, 3.85 ERA
The Cleveland Guardians (-110) visit Surprise Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (-110) on Sunday, March 12, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Surprise.
The Royals are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Guardians vs Royals Over/Under is 11 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Guardians are 4-6 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 10-2 ATS.
Guardians vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +1.5 -190 | O 11 -110 | -110 |
| Royals | -1.5 +155 | U 11 -110 | -110 |
Guardians vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Royals will win Sunday‘s Spring Training matchup with 52.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Royals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some :
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Sebastian Rivero has hit the Singles Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- Maikel Garcia has hit the Singles Under in 4 of his last 6 games (+0.85 Units / 9% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 89 of their last 150 games (+26.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 38 away games (+17.75 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 41 away games (+15.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 37 of their last 61 away games (+11.05 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 63 games (+9.45 Units / 14% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 40 games at home (+18.50 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 60 of their last 108 games (+15.50 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Over in 27 of their last 40 games at home (+13.45 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 43 games at home (+12.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games at home (+10.50 Units / 45% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 4-6 against the Run Line (-2.95 Units / -23.6% ROI).
- 4-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.6 Units / -20.08% ROI
- 3-5 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.5 Units / -22.83% ROI
- 5-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.65 Units / 14.93% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 10-2 against the Run Line (+9.15 Units / 56.31% ROI).
- 11-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.5 Units / 76.09% ROI
- 8-3 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.75 Units / 35.71% ROI
- 3-8 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.6 Units / -42.59% ROI
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Xzavion Curry has limited playing time.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Daniel Lynch has allowed an OBP of .369 (252 PA’s) versus the bottom of the order since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .276 — 0 Percentile.
The average home run distance against Daniel Lynch since the start of the 2021 season is 412.4 feet — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 398.9
Daniel Lynch has allowed an OPS of .658 (488 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .498 — second Percentile.
Daniel Lynch has allowed an OBP of .360 (908 PA’s) since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .303 — second Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Guardians are 16-57 (.219) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Guardians are 12-60 (.167) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Guardians are 52-7 (.881) when totaling 10 or more hits last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
The Guardians are 63-3 (.955) when leading entering the 7th inning last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .881.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Royals are just 4-41 (.089) when their opponents score in the first inning last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Royals are just 3-77 (.038) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Royals are just 26-55 (.321) on the road last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .468.
The Royals are 10-5 (.667) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters struck out just 795 times in 4,584 PA’s (17%) against RHP last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters missed on just 21% of swings last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters slugged just .343 against LHP last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Guardians hitters had 93 extra-base hits out of 341 total hits (just 27%) against LHP last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have just 642 strikeouts in 3,264 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 32% on the road last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Royals hitters slugged just .368 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .445.
Royals hitters have an OPS of just .991 (2,308 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.083.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers walked 88 of 1,460 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Guardians pitchers walked 435 of 5,989 batters (7%) last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .225 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 19% last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals pitchers have walked 1,180 of 12,376 batters (10%) since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The average home run distance against the Royals pitchers since the start of the 2021 season is 405.4 feet — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 399.3
Royals pitchers threw at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 60% of opposing batters last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Royals vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kansas City Royals – No Injuries Reported
- Cleveland Guardians – No Injuries Reported
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