• The Guardians are -125 favorites vs the Royals
• Guardians vs Royals Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
• Guardians / Royals TV Channel: GDTV | RYTV

The Cleveland Guardians (-125) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+105) on May 5, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40 pm in Kansas City, MO.

This season, the Guardians are 18-18 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 17-17 ATS.

Guardians vs Royals Starting Pitchers Today:

• Guardians starting pitcher: Gavin Williams 5-1, 2.66 ERA
• Royals starting pitcher: Stephen Kolek 0-0, 0.00 ERA

Guardians vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Guardians vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 54.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:

• David Fry has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 away games (+15.60 Units / 390% ROI)
• Angel Martinez has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+10.45 Units / 91% ROI)
• Chase DeLauter has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+9.75 Units / 56% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.30 Units / 33% ROI)
• Chase DeLauter has hit the Walks Over in 12 of his last 20 games (+9.10 Units / 45% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 20 games (+14.55 Units / 37% ROI)
• Salvador Perez has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.00 Units / 29% ROI)
• Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 25 games at home (+9.95 Units / 40% ROI)
• Maikel Garcia has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 100% ROI)
• Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+8.70 Units / 36% ROI)

Guardians Best Bets Today:

• The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 45 away games (+15.40 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 30 away games (+10.50 Units / 33% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 45 away games (+10.30 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 35 games (+5.35 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.00 Units / 46% ROI)

Royals Best Bets Today:

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Over in their last 8 games at home (+8.25 Units / 90% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 35 games (+7.30 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+6.85 Units / 45% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 40 games (+6.70 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.35 Units / 58% ROI)

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 18-18 against the Run Line (-0.75 Units / -1.65% ROI).

• 18-18 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.5 Units / 1.2% ROI
• 17-19 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.8 Units / -9.56% ROI
• 19-17 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.3 Units / 0.76% ROI

Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Royals are 17-17 against the Run Line (-3.6 Units / -7.47% ROI).

• 16-19 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.55 Units / -13.21% ROI
• 14-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -9 Units / -23.29% ROI
• 21-14 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.85 Units / 15.25% ROI

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Royals

The Guardians are 7-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .755.

The Guardians are 78-6 (.929) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2025 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .872.

The Guardians are 40-4 (.889) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2025 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .745.

The Guardians are just 0-17 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .057.

Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Royals are just 12-4 (.750) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .891.

The Royals are just 1-9 (.100) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.

The Royals are 41-11 (.788) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2025 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .699.

The Royals are 71-7 (.910) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2025 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .872.

Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends

Guardians hitters have struck out in just 18% of their PA’s against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB.

The Guardians are batting just .227 since the 2025 season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Guardians hitters have put just 29% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB.

Guardians hitters have struck out in 32% of their PA’s in righty-righty matchups since the 2025 season — highest in MLB.

Royals Hitting Stats & Trends

33% of Royals hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB.

Royals hitters have an OPS of 1.340 (252 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — best in MLB.

Royals hitters have struck out in just 18% of their PA’s against RHP since the 2025 season — 2nd best in MLB.

The Royals are batting just .296 in hitter’s counts since the 2025 season — lowest in MLB.

Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends

Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 34% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB.

Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Guardians pitchers this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB.

Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 2.56 (506.1 IP) against division opponents since the 2025 season — best in MLB.

Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% with runners in scoring position this season — 5th best in MLB.

Royals Pitching Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Royals pitchers this season — lowest in MLB.

Royals pitchers have walked 11% of batters this season — 5th highest in MLB.

Royals pitchers have 63 three-pitch strikeouts this season — 5th most in MLB.

Royals pitchers have picked-off 7 runners from first base this season — tied for most in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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