- The Guardians are -130 favorites vs the Royals
- Guardians starting pitcher: Cal Quantrill
- Royals starting pitcher: Brady Singer
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Cleveland Guardians (-130) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+105) on Monday, September 18, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Kansas City.
The Guardians are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Guardians vs Royals Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Guardians are 72-78 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 64-86 ATS.
Guardians vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | -1.5 +125 | O 9.5 -105 | -130 |
| Royals | +1.5 -155 | U 9.5 -115 | +105 |
Guardians vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 57.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Royals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Cal Quantrill has hit the Strikeouts Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.45 Units / 45% ROI)
- Gabriel Arias has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 14 away games (+11.40 Units / 47% ROI)
- Tanner Bibee has hit the Earned Runs Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+10.50 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+9.95 Units / 34% ROI)
- Tyler Freeman has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 away games (+9.75 Units / 28% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jordan Lyles has hit the Earned Runs Over in 23 of his last 28 games (+16.10 Units / 41% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 49 games (+11.95 Units / 23% ROI)
- Nelson Velazquez has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 22 games at home (+11.45 Units / 52% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 32 of his last 49 games (+10.85 Units / 16% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 23 games at home (+9.90 Units / 43% ROI)
Royals vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Logan Porter | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
Royals vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 +100 |
| Will Brennan | 1.5 +165 | 1.5 -225 |
| Logan Porter | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Steven Kwan | 1.5 +125 | 1.5 -160 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 1.5 +130 | 1.5 -175 |
Royals vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Logan Porter | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -155 |
Royals vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brady Singer | 3.5 -110 | 3.5 -120 |
| Cal Quantrill | 3.5 -135 | 3.5 +105 |
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 79 of their last 134 games (+22.10 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 61 of their last 108 games (+12.65 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 33 away games (+4.89 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 23 games (+4.34 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 22 games (+3.75 Units / 16% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 33 games at home (+11.33 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 33 games at home (+10.10 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 24 games at home (+8.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 35 games at home (+7.50 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 33 games at home (+7.30 Units / 20% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 77-73 against the Run Line (+0.4 Units / 0.21% ROI).
- 72-78 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.75 Units / -8.46% ROI
- 61-85 when betting on the total runs Over for -33.05 Units / -19.98% ROI
- 85-61 when betting on the total runs Under for +18.25 Units / 11.06% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 64-86 against the Run Line (-34.85 Units / -19.32% ROI).
- 48-102 when betting on the Moneyline for -35.9 Units / -22.98% ROI
- 72-72 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.25 Units / -4.96% ROI
- 72-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.3 Units / -4.45% ROI
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Cal Quantrill has struck out just 7% (15/205) of right-handed batters he faced this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 0 Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 14% (161/1,134) against Cal Quantrill since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 123 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .218 (12-for-55) against Cal Quantrill on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: .354 — 99th Percentile.
36 of Cal Quantrill’s 120 breaking pitch strikeouts (30%) have been backdoor since the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 188 total IP; League Avg: 13% — 98th Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed batters are hitting .321 (84-for-262) against Brady Singer this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .242 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .372 (29-for-78) against Brady Singer on low fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .260 — second Percentile.
Brady Singer has allowed a slugging percentage of .615 (48 Total Bases / 78 ABs) on low fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .401 — second Percentile.
Brady Singer has allowed an OPS of .800 (677 PA’s) this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .704 — ninth Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Guardians are 34-107 (.241) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .130.
The Guardians are just 5-15 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Guardians are 18-50 (.265) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .142.
The Guardians are 23-114 (.168) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .093.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Royals are just 9-83 (.098) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .363.
The Royals are just 32-29 (.525) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .734.
The Royals are just 5-42 (.106) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .390.
The Royals are just 39-66 (.371) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .573.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – away
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Royals are batting just .211 with two outs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .238.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .283 (2,745 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
The Royals are just 9-83 (.098) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .363.
The Royals are just 32-29 (.525) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .734.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 110 MPH 98 times since last season — 3rd fewest in MLB.
Guardians pitchers have allowed 162 home runs this season — 5th fewest in MLB.
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 3.38 (1093.2 IP) against division opponents since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.12.
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 3.62 (681.0 IP) at home this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.24.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Royals pitchers since last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% with runners in scoring position since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .285 against Royals pitchers with runners on base since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Royals vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Daniel A. Lynch (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Vincent Pasquantino (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Kristofer Bubic (Royals): Flexor, D60
- John McMillon (Royals): Forearm, D15
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Elbow, D60
- Salvador Perez (Royals): Concussion, D7
- Freddy Fermin (Royals): Finger, D60
- Joshua Staumont (Royals): Neck, D60
- Austin Cox (Royals): Knee, D60
- Josh Taylor (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Michael Kelly (Guardians): Back, D15
- Shane Bieber (Guardians): Elbow, D60
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Elbow, D60
- Tanner Bibee (Guardians): Hip, D15
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