- The Guardians are -160 favorites vs the Royals
- Guardians starting pitcher: Logan Allen
- Royals starting pitcher: Steven Cruz
- Watch the game on BSKC
The Cleveland Guardians (-160) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+135) on Tuesday, September 19, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Kansas City.
The Guardians are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Guardians vs Royals Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Guardians are 72-79 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 65-86 ATS.
Guardians vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | -1.5 -105 | O 9.5 -110 | -160 |
| Royals | +1.5 -115 | U 9.5 -110 | +135 |
Guardians vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 71.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Royals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Cal Quantrill has hit the Strikeouts Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+12.45 Units / 47% ROI)
- Gabriel Arias has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 15 away games (+12.40 Units / 49% ROI)
- Myles Straw has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Tyler Freeman has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 away games (+9.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- Will Brennan has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+9.65 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jordan Lyles has hit the Earned Runs Over in 23 of his last 28 games (+16.10 Units / 41% ROI)
- Nelson Velazquez has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 23 games at home (+12.50 Units / 54% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 50 games (+10.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- Michael Massey has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+10.35 Units / 94% ROI)
- Nelson Velazquez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 23 games at home (+10.10 Units / 40% ROI)
Royals vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Logan Porter | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Dairon Blanco | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Matt Duffy | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
Royals vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 1.5 +165 | 1.5 -225 |
| Logan Porter | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Dairon Blanco | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Matt Duffy | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Steven Kwan | 1.5 +135 | 1.5 -175 |
Royals vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Logan Porter | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Dairon Blanco | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Matt Duffy | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Royals vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Allen | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -120 |
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 79 of their last 135 games (+21.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 61 of their last 109 games (+11.65 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 23 games (+4.34 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 34 away games (+3.89 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 23 games (+2.45 Units / 10% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 34 games at home (+10.23 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 25 games at home (+9.30 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 34 games at home (+9.10 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 36 games at home (+8.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 34 games at home (+8.30 Units / 22% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 77-74 against the Run Line (-0.6 Units / -0.31% ROI).
- 72-79 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.05 Units / -9.1% ROI
- 62-85 when betting on the total runs Over for -32.05 Units / -19.24% ROI
- 85-62 when betting on the total runs Under for +17.25 Units / 10.39% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 65-86 against the Run Line (-33.85 Units / -18.62% ROI).
- 49-102 when betting on the Moneyline for -34.8 Units / -22.13% ROI
- 73-72 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.25 Units / -4.33% ROI
- 72-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.3 Units / -5.03% ROI
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 24% (18/75) against Logan Allen on sliders this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 59 total IP; League Avg: 37% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .138 (4 GB hits out of 29 GBs) against Logan Allen with runners in scoring position this season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 59 total IP; League Avg: .250 — 97th Percentile.
68% of Logan Allen’s called strikeouts are low against right-handed batters this season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 59 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 93rd Percentile.
Logan Allen has allowed a slugging percentage of just .279 (60 Total Bases / 215 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — 8th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 59 total IP; League Avg: .389 — 93rd Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed batters are hitting just .118 (2-for-17) against Steven Cruz over the last 30 days (6 games) — tied for 12th best among in MLB; League Avg: .236 — 90th Percentile.
Steven Cruz has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 54% (14/26) of opposing batters over the last 30 days (6 games) — tied for 10th lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 10th Percentile.
Steven Cruz has allowed a slugging percentage of .625 (10 Total Bases / 16 ABs) at home over the last 30 days (4 games) — tied for 14th highest among in MLB; League Avg: .395 — 14th Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Guardians are 34-107 (.241) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .130.
The Guardians are 23-114 (.168) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .093.
The Guardians are just 5-15 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Guardians are 7-64 (.099) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .053.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Royals are just 9-83 (.098) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .364.
The Royals are just 1-8 (.111) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Royals are just 5-42 (.106) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .391.
The Royals are just 17-12 (.586) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .794.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .655 (3,333 PA’s) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .727.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .664 (1,754 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .742.
Guardians hitters have just 1,062 strikeouts in 5,687 PA’s (19%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have just 2,184 strikeouts in 11,850 PA’s (18%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Royals are just 17-33 (.333) against the run line (-36.4% ROI) after a road win since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .504.
The Royals are just 9-83 (.098) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .364.
The Royals are just 1-8 (.111) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Royals hitters have drawn 280 walks in 4,129 PA’s (7%) against RHP this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have allowed 163 home runs this season — 5th fewest in MLB.
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 3.40 (1101.2 IP) against division opponents since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.12.
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 3.59 (690.0 IP) at home this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.24.
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 3.91 (1349.0 IP) this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.34.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Royals pitchers since last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Royals pitchers have picked-off 16 runners from first base this season — best in MLB.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% with runners in scoring position since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Daniel A. Lynch (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Vincent Pasquantino (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Kristofer Bubic (Royals): Flexor, D60
- John McMillon (Royals): Forearm, D15
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Elbow, D60
- Salvador Perez (Royals): Concussion, D7
- Freddy Fermin (Royals): Finger, D60
- Joshua Staumont (Royals): Neck, D60
- Austin Cox (Royals): Knee, D60
- Josh Taylor (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Michael Kelly (Guardians): Back, D15
- Shane Bieber (Guardians): Elbow, D60
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Elbow, D60
- Tanner Bibee (Guardians): Hip, D15
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