Guardians vs Royals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 6

min read
MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 06, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Guardians (69-64) are -200 favorites vs the Royals (55-81)
  • Guardians starting pitcher: Shane Bieber (8-8), 3.05 ERA
  • Royals starting pitcher: Kristofer Bubic (2-10), 5.46 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSKC

The Cleveland Guardians (-200) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+165) on Tuesday, September 6, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Kansas City.

The Guardians are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-115).

The Guardians vs Royals Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Guardians are 69-63 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 64-68 ATS.

Guardians vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Guardians-1.5 -115O 7.5 -115-200
Royals +1.5 -105U 7.5 -105+165

Guardians vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 58.7% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Royals and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Royals vs Guardians and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 27 games (+18.50 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 23 away games (+11.30 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Jose Ramirez has hit the Singles Over in 29 of his last 50 games (+10.85 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Myles Straw has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+10.75 Units / 108% ROI)
  • Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Over in 28 of his last 52 games (+10.60 Units / 20% ROI)

Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 23 games at home (+13.55 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 58 of his last 91 games (+12.25 Units / 9% ROI)
  • Salvador Perez has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 23 games at home (+10.75 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Nick Pratto has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 13 games at home (+9.95 Units / 77% ROI)
  • Brady Singer has hit the Strikeouts Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+9.15 Units / 40% ROI)

Royals vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bobby Witt Jr. 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Drew Waters 0.5 +900 0.5 -5000
Hunter Dozier 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000
MJ Melendez 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
Michael A. Taylor 0.5 +825 0.5 -5000

Royals vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bobby Witt Jr. 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Drew Waters 0.5 -155 0.5 +110
Hunter Dozier 0.5 -155 0.5 +110
MJ Melendez 0.5 -175 0.5 +120
Michael A. Taylor 0.5 -185 0.5 +130

Royals vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bobby Witt Jr. 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Drew Waters 0.5 +270 0.5 -450
Hunter Dozier 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
MJ Melendez 0.5 +240 0.5 -350
Michael A. Taylor 0.5 +280 0.5 -450

Royals vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Kris Bubic 3.5 +125 3.5 -175
Shane Bieber 5.5 -165 5.5 +115
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 19 away games (+9.80 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 20 away games (+8.25 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 19 away games (+7.10 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 away games (+6.75 Units / 50% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 15 of their last 27 games (+6.10 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 48 of their last 82 games (+18.10 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 12 games at home (+7.90 Units / 60% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.85 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+4.00 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 12 games at home (+2.80 Units / 23% ROI)

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 68-64 against the Run Line (-1.95 Units / -1.17% ROI).

  • 69-63 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.45 Units / 3.94% ROI
  • 57-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.4 Units / -10.61% ROI
  • 66-57 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.2 Units / 2.19% ROI

Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 64-68 against the Run Line (-16.05 Units / -9.24% ROI).

  • 55-78 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.35 Units / -7.34% ROI
  • 67-62 when betting on the total runs Over for -1 Units / -0.69% ROI
  • 62-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.45 Units / -8.44% ROI

Shane Bieber has located his pitches away 58% of the time (373/638) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 33% (199/613) against Shane Bieber this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 88th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 30% (348/1,141) against Shane Bieber this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 89th Percentile.

Shane Bieber has allowed a slugging percentage of just .149 (33 Total Bases / 221 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .288 — 100th Percentile.

Kristofer Bubic: Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Kris Bubic has allowed a slugging percentage of .897 (35 Total Bases / 39 ABs) on low fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total IP; League Avg: .423 — 0 Percentile.

Kris Bubic has allowed a slugging percentage of .654 (219 Total Bases / 335 ABs) versus the top of the order since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 147 total IP; League Avg: .438 — 0 Percentile.

Kris Bubic has allowed an OBP of .423 (390 PA’s) versus the top of the order since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 147 total IP; League Avg: .325 — second Percentile.

Kris Bubic has allowed a slugging percentage of .717 (33 Total Bases / 46 ABs) on fastballs away this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total IP; League Avg: .365 — 0 Percentile.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Royals

The Guardians are 11-56 (.164) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .084.

The Guardians are 47-2 (.959) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .886.

The Guardians are 40-5 (.889) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .724.

The Guardians are 36-34 (.514) on the road this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .472.

Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Royals are just 4-34 (.105) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .334.

The Royals are just 21-65 (.244) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.

The Royals are 9-4 (.692) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Royals are just 2-64 (.030) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .114.

Guardians hitters have just 652 strikeouts in 3,746 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters have just 919 strikeouts in 5,018 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .984 (2,061 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.083.

Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .628 (1,272 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .716.

Royals hitters have just 592 strikeouts in 3,016 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Royals hitters are slugging just .370 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .441.

Royals hitters have an OPS of just .986 (2,116 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.083.

The Royals are batting .361 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .339.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .196 against Guardians pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .223.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .196 against Guardians pitchers with the shift since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .225.

The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 37% of their games on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .221 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.

Royals pitchers have walked 508 of 5,270 batters (10%) this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 16% with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Royals pitchers have walked 1,099 of 11,397 batters (10%) since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Royals vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Joshua Staumont (Royals): Bicep, D15
  • Taylor Clarke (Royals): Oblique, D15
  • Angel Zerpa (Royals): Knee, D60
  • Raúl Mondesi (Royals): Knee, D60
  • Jacob Brentz (Royals): Flexor, D60
  • Tyler Zuber (Royals): Shoulder, D60
  • Edward Olivares (Royals): Quad, D60
  • Vincent Pasquantino (Royals): Shoulder, D10
  • Donald Greinke (Royals): Forearm, D15
  • Aaron Civale (Guardians): Forearm, D15
  • Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60
  • Zach Plesac (Guardians): Hand, D15

Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Royals vs Guardians and all MLB games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.