- The Guardians (69-64) are -200 favorites vs the Royals (55-81)
- Guardians starting pitcher: Shane Bieber (8-8), 3.05 ERA
- Royals starting pitcher: Kristofer Bubic (2-10), 5.46 ERA
- Watch the game on BSKC
The Cleveland Guardians (-200) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+165) on Tuesday, September 6, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Kansas City.
The Guardians are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-115).
The Guardians vs Royals Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Guardians are 69-63 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 64-68 ATS.
Guardians vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | -1.5 -115 | O 7.5 -115 | -200 |
| Royals | +1.5 -105 | U 7.5 -105 | +165 |
Guardians vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 58.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Royals and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 27 games (+18.50 Units / 39% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 23 away games (+11.30 Units / 45% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Singles Over in 29 of his last 50 games (+10.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- Myles Straw has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+10.75 Units / 108% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Over in 28 of his last 52 games (+10.60 Units / 20% ROI)
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 23 games at home (+13.55 Units / 29% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 58 of his last 91 games (+12.25 Units / 9% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 23 games at home (+10.75 Units / 46% ROI)
- Nick Pratto has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 13 games at home (+9.95 Units / 77% ROI)
- Brady Singer has hit the Strikeouts Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+9.15 Units / 40% ROI)
Royals vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Drew Waters | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Hunter Dozier | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| MJ Melendez | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
Royals vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Drew Waters | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
| Hunter Dozier | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
| MJ Melendez | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +120 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +130 |
Royals vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Drew Waters | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| Hunter Dozier | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| MJ Melendez | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -450 |
Royals vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kris Bubic | 3.5 +125 | 3.5 -175 |
| Shane Bieber | 5.5 -165 | 5.5 +115 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Guardians Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 19 away games (+9.80 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 20 away games (+8.25 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 19 away games (+7.10 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 away games (+6.75 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 15 of their last 27 games (+6.10 Units / 20% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Royals: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 48 of their last 82 games (+18.10 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 12 games at home (+7.90 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.85 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+4.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 12 games at home (+2.80 Units / 23% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 68-64 against the Run Line (-1.95 Units / -1.17% ROI).
- 69-63 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.45 Units / 3.94% ROI
- 57-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.4 Units / -10.61% ROI
- 66-57 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.2 Units / 2.19% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 64-68 against the Run Line (-16.05 Units / -9.24% ROI).
- 55-78 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.35 Units / -7.34% ROI
- 67-62 when betting on the total runs Over for -1 Units / -0.69% ROI
- 62-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.45 Units / -8.44% ROI
Shane Bieber: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Shane Bieber has located his pitches away 58% of the time (373/638) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 33% (199/613) against Shane Bieber this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 88th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 30% (348/1,141) against Shane Bieber this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 89th Percentile.
Shane Bieber has allowed a slugging percentage of just .149 (33 Total Bases / 221 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .288 — 100th Percentile.
Kristofer Bubic: Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kris Bubic has allowed a slugging percentage of .897 (35 Total Bases / 39 ABs) on low fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total IP; League Avg: .423 — 0 Percentile.
Kris Bubic has allowed a slugging percentage of .654 (219 Total Bases / 335 ABs) versus the top of the order since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 147 total IP; League Avg: .438 — 0 Percentile.
Kris Bubic has allowed an OBP of .423 (390 PA’s) versus the top of the order since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 147 total IP; League Avg: .325 — second Percentile.
Kris Bubic has allowed a slugging percentage of .717 (33 Total Bases / 46 ABs) on fastballs away this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total IP; League Avg: .365 — 0 Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Guardians are 11-56 (.164) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .084.
The Guardians are 47-2 (.959) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .886.
The Guardians are 40-5 (.889) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .724.
The Guardians are 36-34 (.514) on the road this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .472.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Royals are just 4-34 (.105) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .334.
The Royals are just 21-65 (.244) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
The Royals are 9-4 (.692) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Royals are just 2-64 (.030) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .114.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 652 strikeouts in 3,746 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters have just 919 strikeouts in 5,018 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .984 (2,061 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.083.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .628 (1,272 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .716.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have just 592 strikeouts in 3,016 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals hitters are slugging just .370 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .441.
Royals hitters have an OPS of just .986 (2,116 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.083.
The Royals are batting .361 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .339.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .196 against Guardians pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .223.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .196 against Guardians pitchers with the shift since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .225.
The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 37% of their games on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .221 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have walked 508 of 5,270 batters (10%) this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 16% with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals pitchers have walked 1,099 of 11,397 batters (10%) since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Royals vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Joshua Staumont (Royals): Bicep, D15
- Taylor Clarke (Royals): Oblique, D15
- Angel Zerpa (Royals): Knee, D60
- Raúl Mondesi (Royals): Knee, D60
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Flexor, D60
- Tyler Zuber (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Edward Olivares (Royals): Quad, D60
- Vincent Pasquantino (Royals): Shoulder, D10
- Donald Greinke (Royals): Forearm, D15
- Aaron Civale (Guardians): Forearm, D15
- Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60
- Zach Plesac (Guardians): Hand, D15
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