Guardians vs Royals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 7

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 07, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Guardians (70-64) are -140 favorites vs the Royals (55-82)
  • Guardians starting pitcher: Cody Morris (0-1), 9.00 ERA
  • Royals starting pitcher: Donald Greinke (4-8), 4.14 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSKC

The Cleveland Guardians (-140) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+115) on Wednesday, September 7, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Kansas City.

The Guardians are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).

The Guardians vs Royals Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Guardians are 70-63 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 64-69 ATS.

Guardians vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Guardians-1.5 +120O 8 -115-140
Royals +1.5 -145U 8 -105+115

Guardians vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 58.7% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Royals and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Royals vs Guardians and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 28 games (+16.35 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Jose Ramirez has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 51 games (+11.90 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 53 games (+11.90 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Myles Straw has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 away games (+11.00 Units / 42% ROI)

Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 24 games at home (+14.55 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 59 of his last 92 games (+13.25 Units / 10% ROI)
  • Salvador Perez has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 24 games at home (+9.75 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Nick Pratto has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 14 games at home (+8.95 Units / 64% ROI)
  • Brady Singer has hit the Strikeouts Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+8.15 Units / 34% ROI)

Royals vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bobby Witt Jr. 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Drew Waters 0.5 +750 0.5 -3000
Hunter Dozier 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
MJ Melendez 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Michael A. Taylor 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600

Royals vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bobby Witt Jr. 1.5 +175 1.5 -250
Drew Waters 0.5 -175 0.5 +120
Hunter Dozier 0.5 -185 0.5 +130
MJ Melendez 0.5 -190 0.5 +135
Michael A. Taylor 0.5 -225 0.5 +155

Royals vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bobby Witt Jr. 0.5 +150 0.5 -225
Drew Waters 0.5 +225 0.5 -350
Hunter Dozier 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
MJ Melendez 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Michael A. Taylor 0.5 +210 0.5 -300
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 20 away games (+10.80 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 21 away games (+9.25 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 away games (+8.10 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 13 away games (+7.75 Units / 53% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 16 of their last 28 games (+7.10 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 48 of their last 83 games (+17.10 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games at home (+6.85 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 22 of their last 44 games (+4.50 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+3.00 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 13 games at home (+1.80 Units / 14% ROI)

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 69-64 against the Run Line (-0.95 Units / -0.57% ROI).

  • 70-63 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.45 Units / 4.49% ROI
  • 57-67 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.45 Units / -11.26% ROI
  • 67-57 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.2 Units / 2.86% ROI

Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 64-69 against the Run Line (-17.05 Units / -9.76% ROI).

  • 55-79 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.35 Units / -7.99% ROI
  • 67-63 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.05 Units / -1.4% ROI
  • 63-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.45 Units / -7.7% ROI

Cody Morris has limited playing time.

Donald Greinke: Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 14% (42/311) against Zack Greinke this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.

Zack Greinke has a strikeout rate of just 15% (34 SO in 228 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total IP; League Avg: 33% — 0 Percentile.

Zack Greinke has thrown his changeup for a strike just 49% (152/312) of the time this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total IP; League Avg: 61% — second Percentile.

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 18% (127/707) against Zack Greinke since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 147 total IP; League Avg: 25% — third Percentile.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Royals

The Guardians are 11-56 (.164) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .084.

The Guardians are 48-2 (.960) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .886.

The Guardians are 46-4 (.920) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .800.

The Guardians are 12-53 (.185) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .114.

Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Royals are just 4-34 (.105) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .335.

The Royals are just 2-65 (.030) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .114.

The Royals are just 32-39 (.451) at home this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .530.

The Royals are just 23-43 (.348) on the road this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .470.

Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .627 (1,297 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .716.

Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .982 (2,067 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.084.

Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Guardians hitters are slugging just .330 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .400.

Royals hitters have just 592 strikeouts in 3,016 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Royals hitters have just 264 strikeouts in 1,323 PA’s (20%) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Royals hitters have an OPS of just .984 (2,121 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.084.

Royals hitters are slugging just .394 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .447.

Guardians pitchers have won only 15% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .197 against Guardians pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .223.

Guardians pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 66% of opposing batters this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.

The longest HR allowed by the Guardians pitchers this season traveled 446.0 feet — — 2nd shortest in MLB; League Avg: 461.1

Royals pitchers have walked 1,100 of 11,434 batters (10%) since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 16% with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Royals pitchers have walked 109 of 1,205 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Royals vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Joshua Staumont (Royals): Bicep, D15
  • Taylor Clarke (Royals): Oblique, D15
  • Angel Zerpa (Royals): Knee, D60
  • Raúl Mondesi (Royals): Knee, D60
  • Jacob Brentz (Royals): Flexor, D60
  • Tyler Zuber (Royals): Shoulder, D60
  • Edward Olivares (Royals): Quad, D60
  • Vincent Pasquantino (Royals): Shoulder, D10
  • Donald Greinke (Royals): Forearm, D15
  • Aaron Civale (Guardians): Forearm, D15
  • Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60
  • Zach Plesac (Guardians): Hand, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.