- The Guardians (70-64) are -140 favorites vs the Royals (55-82)
- Guardians starting pitcher: Cody Morris (0-1), 9.00 ERA
- Royals starting pitcher: Donald Greinke (4-8), 4.14 ERA
- Watch the game on BSKC
The Cleveland Guardians (-140) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+115) on Wednesday, September 7, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Kansas City.
The Guardians are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Guardians vs Royals Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Guardians are 70-63 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 64-69 ATS.
Guardians vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | -1.5 +120 | O 8 -115 | -140 |
| Royals | +1.5 -145 | U 8 -105 | +115 |
Guardians vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 58.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Royals and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 28 games (+16.35 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 51 games (+11.90 Units / 23% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 53 games (+11.90 Units / 22% ROI)
- Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 51% ROI)
- Myles Straw has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 away games (+11.00 Units / 42% ROI)
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 24 games at home (+14.55 Units / 30% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 59 of his last 92 games (+13.25 Units / 10% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 24 games at home (+9.75 Units / 40% ROI)
- Nick Pratto has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 14 games at home (+8.95 Units / 64% ROI)
- Brady Singer has hit the Strikeouts Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+8.15 Units / 34% ROI)
Royals vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Drew Waters | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Hunter Dozier | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| MJ Melendez | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
Royals vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
| Drew Waters | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +120 |
| Hunter Dozier | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +130 |
| MJ Melendez | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +135 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
Royals vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -225 |
| Drew Waters | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
| Hunter Dozier | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| MJ Melendez | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Guardians Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 20 away games (+10.80 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 21 away games (+9.25 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 away games (+8.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 13 away games (+7.75 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 16 of their last 28 games (+7.10 Units / 22% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Royals: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 48 of their last 83 games (+17.10 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games at home (+6.85 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 22 of their last 44 games (+4.50 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+3.00 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 13 games at home (+1.80 Units / 14% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 69-64 against the Run Line (-0.95 Units / -0.57% ROI).
- 70-63 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.45 Units / 4.49% ROI
- 57-67 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.45 Units / -11.26% ROI
- 67-57 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.2 Units / 2.86% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 64-69 against the Run Line (-17.05 Units / -9.76% ROI).
- 55-79 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.35 Units / -7.99% ROI
- 67-63 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.05 Units / -1.4% ROI
- 63-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.45 Units / -7.7% ROI
Cody Morris: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Cody Morris has limited playing time.
Donald Greinke: Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 14% (42/311) against Zack Greinke this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Zack Greinke has a strikeout rate of just 15% (34 SO in 228 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total IP; League Avg: 33% — 0 Percentile.
Zack Greinke has thrown his changeup for a strike just 49% (152/312) of the time this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total IP; League Avg: 61% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 18% (127/707) against Zack Greinke since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 147 total IP; League Avg: 25% — third Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Guardians are 11-56 (.164) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .084.
The Guardians are 48-2 (.960) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .886.
The Guardians are 46-4 (.920) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .800.
The Guardians are 12-53 (.185) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .114.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Royals are just 4-34 (.105) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .335.
The Royals are just 2-65 (.030) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .114.
The Royals are just 32-39 (.451) at home this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .530.
The Royals are just 23-43 (.348) on the road this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .470.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .627 (1,297 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .716.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .982 (2,067 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.084.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .330 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .400.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have just 592 strikeouts in 3,016 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals hitters have just 264 strikeouts in 1,323 PA’s (20%) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals hitters have an OPS of just .984 (2,121 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.084.
Royals hitters are slugging just .394 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .447.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have won only 15% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .197 against Guardians pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .223.
Guardians pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 66% of opposing batters this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
The longest HR allowed by the Guardians pitchers this season traveled 446.0 feet — — 2nd shortest in MLB; League Avg: 461.1
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have walked 1,100 of 11,434 batters (10%) since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 16% with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Royals pitchers have walked 109 of 1,205 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Royals vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Joshua Staumont (Royals): Bicep, D15
- Taylor Clarke (Royals): Oblique, D15
- Angel Zerpa (Royals): Knee, D60
- Raúl Mondesi (Royals): Knee, D60
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Flexor, D60
- Tyler Zuber (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Edward Olivares (Royals): Quad, D60
- Vincent Pasquantino (Royals): Shoulder, D10
- Donald Greinke (Royals): Forearm, D15
- Aaron Civale (Guardians): Forearm, D15
- Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60
- Zach Plesac (Guardians): Hand, D15
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