- The – (77-33) are favorites vs the – (77-33)
- Guardians starting pitcher: Zach Plesac (2-10), 4.48 ERA
- Tigers starting pitcher: Garrett Hill (2-3), 5.11 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Cleveland Guardians () visit Comerica Park to take on the Detroit Tigers () on Thursday, August 11, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Detroit.
The – are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at ().
The Guardians vs Tigers Over/Under is total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Guardians are 58-52 against the spread (ATS), while the Tigers are 50-62 ATS.
Guardians vs. Tigers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | O | ||
| Tigers | U |
Guardians vs Tigers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Thursday‘s matchup with 55.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Tigers and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 30 games (+13.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 30 games (+12.05 Units / 24% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 29 games (+10.30 Units / 16% ROI)
- Myles Straw has hit the Total Bases Under in 28 of his last 43 away games (+9.65 Units / 14% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 27 away games (+9.20 Units / 22% ROI)
Best Tigers Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Miguel Cabrera has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 18 games at home (+10.65 Units / 44% ROI)
- Austin Meadows has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 58% ROI)
- Austin Meadows has hit the RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- Jonathan Schoop has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+8.75 Units / 40% ROI)
- Harold Castro has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+8.35 Units / 24% ROI)
Tigers vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Harold Castro | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Javier Baez | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Jonathan Schoop | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Carpenter | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Riley Greene | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
Tigers vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Harold Castro | 1.5 +170 | 1.5 -250 |
| Javier Baez | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jonathan Schoop | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Carpenter | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Riley Greene | 1.5 +195 | 1.5 -275 |
Tigers vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Harold Castro | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -200 |
| Javier Baez | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jonathan Schoop | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Carpenter | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Riley Greene | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
Tigers vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Garrett Hill | 2.5 -160 | 2.5 +110 |
| Zach Plesac | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -150 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Guardians Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 51 of their last 91 games (+13.65 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 41 of their last 70 games (+11.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 31 of their last 57 away games (+7.80 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 8 away games (+7.50 Units / 75% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 50 of their last 91 games (+6.05 Units / 5% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Tigers: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Under in 62 of their last 109 games (+21.75 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games (+7.60 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 39 games at home (+5.50 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 12 games (+2.40 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 12 games (+2.00 Units / 16% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 58-52 against the Run Line (+0.9 Units / 0.65% ROI).
- 58-52 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.7 Units / 6.52% ROI
- 52-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.05 Units / -2.51% ROI
- 50-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.1 Units / -5.86% ROI
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 50-62 against the Run Line (-20.65 Units / -14.7% ROI).
- 43-69 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.45 Units / -10.49% ROI
- 39-63 when betting on the total runs Over for -29.7 Units / -24.08% ROI
- 63-39 when betting on the total runs Under for +20.6 Units / 16.65% ROI
Zach Plesac: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .373 (28-for-75) against Zach Plesac with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: .244 — 0 Percentile.
Zach Plesac has located his pitches away 67% of the time (611/914) against right-handed batters this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 97th Percentile.
Zach Plesac has allowed a slugging percentage of .539 (76 Total Bases / 141 ABs) on elevated fastballs since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 135 total IP; League Avg: .380 — second Percentile.
Zach Plesac has a strikeout rate of just 9% (7 SO in 81 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.
Garrett Hill: Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Garrett Hill had a strike rate of just 58% (54/93) — 2nd lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 66% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 39% (15/39) against Garrett Hill this month (1 games) — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 53% (19/36) against Garrett Hill — 10th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 39% — sixth Percentile.
Garrett Hill has struck out 33% (5/15) of left-handed batters he faced this month (1 games) — tied for 9th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 21% — 90th Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Guardians are 35-5 (.875) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Guardians are 39-2 (.951) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .912.
The Guardians are 9-45 (.167) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .088.
The Guardians are 40-1 (.976) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .886.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Tigers are just 4-50 (.074) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .204.
The Tigers are just 18-37 (.327) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .471.
The Tigers are 5-0 (1.000) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .796.
The Tigers are just 43-61 (.413) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .326 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .398.
Guardians hitters have just 769 strikeouts in 4,150 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters have just 543 strikeouts in 3,055 PA’s (18%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .289 (7,214 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .271 (2,983 PA’s) against RHP this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .311.
Tigers hitters are slugging just .313 against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .396.
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .584 (2,983 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .707.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .221 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .196 against Guardians pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .223.
Guardians pitchers have won only 15% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Guardians have won just 17% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
Tigers pitchers have won only 4% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Tigers pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 64% of their games on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Tigers pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Tigers pitchers have won only 12% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Tigers vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Casey Mize (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Jacob Rogers (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Rony García (Tigers): Bicep, D15
- Tarik Skubal (Tigers): Arm, D15
- Spencer Turnbull (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Austin Meadows (Tigers): Achilles , D10
- Beau Brieske (Tigers): Forearm, D60
- Michael Pineda (Tigers): Triceps, D15
- Kyle Funkhouser (Tigers): Shoulder, D60
- Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60
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