Guardians vs Tigers Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 4

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(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 04, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The (49-29) are favorites vs the (49-29)
  • Guardians starting pitcher: (-), ERA
  • Tigers starting pitcher: Alexander Faedo (1-4), 4.84 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSDET

The Cleveland Guardians () visit Comerica Park to take on the Detroit Tigers () on Monday, July 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Detroit.

The are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at ().

The Guardians vs Tigers Over/Under is total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Guardians are 40-36 against the spread (ATS), while the Tigers are 35-42 ATS.

Guardians vs. Tigers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Guardians O
Tigers U

Guardians vs Tigers Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Tigers will win Monday‘s matchup with 65.4% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Tigers and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Tigers vs Guardians and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Andres Gimenez has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Amed Rosario has hit the RBIs Under in 10 of his last 13 away games (+4.50 Units / 17% ROI)

Best Tigers Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Javier Baez has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+10.45 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Javier Baez has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.20 Units / 27% ROI)

Tigers vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Javier Baez 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Jonathan Schoop 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
Miguel Cabrera 0.5 +450 0.5 -1000
Riley Greene 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Robbie Grossman 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100

Tigers vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Javier Baez 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Jonathan Schoop 0.5 -190 0.5 +135
Miguel Cabrera 0.5 -225 0.5 +160
Riley Greene 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Robbie Grossman 0.5 -165 0.5 +120

Tigers vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Javier Baez 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Jonathan Schoop 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Miguel Cabrera 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Riley Greene 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
Robbie Grossman 0.5 +210 0.5 -350

Tigers vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Zach Plesac 4.5 +100 4.5 -145
Hill 3.5 -145 3.5 +100
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 57 games (+10.95 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 27 of their last 45 games (+10.45 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 16 away games (+6.30 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 45 games (+5.75 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 36 games (+5.60 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 74 games (+19.05 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 17 of their last 23 games (+11.80 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 24 games at home (+3.65 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 8 games (+0.20 Units / 2% ROI)

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 40-36 against the Run Line (+1 Units / 1.04% ROI).

  • 40-36 when betting on the Moneyline for +6 Units / 6.66% ROI
  • 35-35 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.8 Units / -4.52% ROI
  • 35-35 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.4 Units / -4.07% ROI

Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 35-42 against the Run Line (-10.9 Units / -11.44% ROI).

  • 30-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.9 Units / -13.03% ROI
  • 26-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -24.2 Units / -28.55% ROI
  • 46-26 when betting on the total runs Under for +17.9 Units / 21.03% ROI

Shane Bieber has located his pitches away 66% of the time (243/370) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 48% — 98th Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 36% (36/99) against Shane Bieber on fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.

Shane Bieber has thrown his curveball 42% of the time (577/1,379) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 119 total CB; League Avg: 18% — 96th Percentile.

Shane Bieber has a strikeout rate of 47% (58 SO in 124 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 90th Percentile.

Alexander Faedo: Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 31% (27/87) against Alex Faedo this season — 10th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 43% — ninth Percentile.

Alex Faedo has allowed a slugging percentage of .686 (24 Total Bases / 35 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .373 — second Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .423 (11-for-26) against Alex Faedo on low fastballs this season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .281 — seventh Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 29% (46/156) against Alex Faedo this season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 24% — third Percentile.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers

The Guardians are 8-31 (.205) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .080.

The Guardians are 24-2 (.923) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .716.

The Guardians are 7-28 (.200) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .106.

The Guardians are 8-5 (.615) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Tigers are just 2-34 (.056) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .205.

The Tigers are just 2-21 (.087) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .284.

The Tigers are just 12-23 (.343) on the road this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .487.

The Tigers are just 7-23 (.233) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .328.

Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Guardians hitters are slugging just .326 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.

The Guardians are batting just .223 against LHP this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.

Guardians hitters have put 40% of their swings in play this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .590 (1,252 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .699.

Tigers hitters are slugging just .335 this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .395.

Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .268 (1,252 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .308.

Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .592 (2,014 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .703.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Guardians pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Guardians have have still managed to win 39% of the time this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Guardians pitchers have walked 15 of 128 batters (12%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (14 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Guardians pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.4 MPH (1,870 batted balls) this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.7.

Tigers pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 90.0 MPH (1,908 batted balls) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.7.

The Tigers pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 63% of their games on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Tigers pitchers have walked 60 of 676 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Tigers pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Tigers vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Casey Mize (Tigers): Elbow, D60
  • Jacob Rogers (Tigers): Elbow, D60
  • Spencer Turnbull (Tigers): Elbow, D60
  • Austin Meadows (Tigers): Achilles , D10
  • Matthew Manning (Tigers): Shoulder, D60
  • José Cisnero (Tigers): Shoulder, D60
  • Rony García (Tigers): Right Shoulder, D15
  • Kyle Funkhouser (Tigers): Shoulder, D60
  • Austin Hedges (Guardians): Concussion, D7
  • Oscar Gonzalez (Guardians): Ribs, D10
  • Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
  • Carlos Vargas (Guardians): Elbow, D60
  • Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D15
  • Joshua-Douglas Naylor (Guardians): Back, Day-to-Day

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.