- The – (49-29) are favorites vs the – (49-29)
- Guardians starting pitcher: – (-), – ERA
- Tigers starting pitcher: Alexander Faedo (1-4), 4.84 ERA
- Watch the game on BSDET
The Cleveland Guardians () visit Comerica Park to take on the Detroit Tigers () on Monday, July 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Detroit.
The – are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at ().
The Guardians vs Tigers Over/Under is total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Guardians are 40-36 against the spread (ATS), while the Tigers are 35-42 ATS.
Guardians vs. Tigers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | O | ||
| Tigers | U |
Guardians vs Tigers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Tigers will win Monday‘s matchup with 65.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Tigers and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- Amed Rosario has hit the RBIs Under in 10 of his last 13 away games (+4.50 Units / 17% ROI)
Best Tigers Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Javier Baez has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+10.45 Units / 54% ROI)
- Javier Baez has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.20 Units / 27% ROI)
Tigers vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Javier Baez | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jonathan Schoop | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Miguel Cabrera | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Riley Greene | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Robbie Grossman | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
Tigers vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Javier Baez | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jonathan Schoop | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +135 |
| Miguel Cabrera | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Riley Greene | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Robbie Grossman | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +120 |
Tigers vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Javier Baez | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jonathan Schoop | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Miguel Cabrera | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Riley Greene | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
| Robbie Grossman | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
Tigers vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zach Plesac | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -145 |
| Hill | 3.5 -145 | 3.5 +100 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Guardians Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 57 games (+10.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 27 of their last 45 games (+10.45 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 16 away games (+6.30 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 45 games (+5.75 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 36 games (+5.60 Units / 14% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Tigers: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 74 games (+19.05 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 17 of their last 23 games (+11.80 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 24 games at home (+3.65 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 8 games (+0.20 Units / 2% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 40-36 against the Run Line (+1 Units / 1.04% ROI).
- 40-36 when betting on the Moneyline for +6 Units / 6.66% ROI
- 35-35 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.8 Units / -4.52% ROI
- 35-35 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.4 Units / -4.07% ROI
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 35-42 against the Run Line (-10.9 Units / -11.44% ROI).
- 30-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.9 Units / -13.03% ROI
- 26-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -24.2 Units / -28.55% ROI
- 46-26 when betting on the total runs Under for +17.9 Units / 21.03% ROI
–: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Shane Bieber has located his pitches away 66% of the time (243/370) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 48% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 36% (36/99) against Shane Bieber on fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Shane Bieber has thrown his curveball 42% of the time (577/1,379) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 119 total CB; League Avg: 18% — 96th Percentile.
Shane Bieber has a strikeout rate of 47% (58 SO in 124 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 90th Percentile.
Alexander Faedo: Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 31% (27/87) against Alex Faedo this season — 10th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 43% — ninth Percentile.
Alex Faedo has allowed a slugging percentage of .686 (24 Total Bases / 35 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .373 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .423 (11-for-26) against Alex Faedo on low fastballs this season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .281 — seventh Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 29% (46/156) against Alex Faedo this season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 24% — third Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Guardians are 8-31 (.205) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .080.
The Guardians are 24-2 (.923) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .716.
The Guardians are 7-28 (.200) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .106.
The Guardians are 8-5 (.615) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Tigers are just 2-34 (.056) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .205.
The Tigers are just 2-21 (.087) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .284.
The Tigers are just 12-23 (.343) on the road this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .487.
The Tigers are just 7-23 (.233) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .328.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .326 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.
The Guardians are batting just .223 against LHP this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Guardians hitters have put 40% of their swings in play this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .590 (1,252 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .699.
Tigers hitters are slugging just .335 this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .395.
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .268 (1,252 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .308.
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .592 (2,014 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .703.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Guardians pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Guardians have have still managed to win 39% of the time this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 15 of 128 batters (12%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (14 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.4 MPH (1,870 batted balls) this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.7.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
Tigers pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 90.0 MPH (1,908 batted balls) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.7.
The Tigers pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 63% of their games on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Tigers pitchers have walked 60 of 676 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Tigers pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Tigers vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Casey Mize (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Jacob Rogers (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Spencer Turnbull (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Austin Meadows (Tigers): Achilles , D10
- Matthew Manning (Tigers): Shoulder, D60
- José Cisnero (Tigers): Shoulder, D60
- Rony García (Tigers): Right Shoulder, D15
- Kyle Funkhouser (Tigers): Shoulder, D60
- Austin Hedges (Guardians): Concussion, D7
- Oscar Gonzalez (Guardians): Ribs, D10
- Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Carlos Vargas (Guardians): Elbow, D60
- Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D15
- Joshua-Douglas Naylor (Guardians): Back, Day-to-Day
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