- The – (51-29) are favorites vs the – (51-29)
- Guardians starting pitcher: Shane Bieber (3-4), 3.16 ERA
- Tigers starting pitcher: Michael Pineda (1-3), 3.62 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Cleveland Guardians () visit Comerica Park to take on the Detroit Tigers () on Wednesday, July 6, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Detroit.
The – are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at ().
The Guardians vs Tigers Over/Under is total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Guardians are 40-39 against the spread (ATS), while the Tigers are 38-42 ATS.
Guardians vs. Tigers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | O | ||
| Tigers | U |
Guardians vs Tigers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 53.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Tigers and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 48% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 63% ROI)
- Amed Rosario has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.55 Units / 36% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 66% ROI)
- Owen Miller has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 49% ROI)
Best Tigers Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Riley Greene has hit the Hits Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.35 Units / 31% ROI)
- Riley Greene has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+4.10 Units / 18% ROI)
- Riley Greene has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 16 games (+4.05 Units / 23% ROI)
- Victor Reyes has hit the Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games at home (+1.75 Units / 35% ROI)
- Riley Greene has hit the Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+0.80 Units / 14% ROI)
Tigers vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Javier Baez | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jonathan Schoop | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Miguel Cabrera | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Riley Greene | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Robbie Grossman | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
Tigers vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Javier Baez | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +130 |
| Jonathan Schoop | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +135 |
| Miguel Cabrera | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Riley Greene | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Robbie Grossman | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +105 |
Tigers vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Javier Baez | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jonathan Schoop | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Miguel Cabrera | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
| Riley Greene | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -375 |
| Robbie Grossman | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
Tigers vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Pineda | 2.5 -160 | 2.5 +115 |
| Shane Bieber | 6.5 -140 | 6.5 -105 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Guardians Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 28 of their last 48 games (+9.25 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 60 games (+6.80 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 48 games (+6.70 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 19 away games (+3.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 39 games (+2.40 Units / 6% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Tigers: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 77 games (+20.00 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 19 of their last 26 games (+12.70 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 27 games at home (+7.20 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.20 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 48 games (+2.45 Units / 4% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 40-39 against the Run Line (-2 Units / -2.03% ROI).
- 40-39 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.85 Units / 1.96% ROI
- 36-37 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.05 Units / -5.78% ROI
- 37-36 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.45 Units / -2.83% ROI
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 38-42 against the Run Line (-7.9 Units / -7.95% ROI).
- 33-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.35 Units / -8.48% ROI
- 27-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -25.45 Units / -28.87% ROI
- 48-27 when betting on the total runs Under for +18.85 Units / 21.35% ROI
Shane Bieber: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 30% (73/242) against Shane Bieber this season — 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 85th Percentile.
Shane Bieber has located his pitches away 66% of the time (243/370) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 48% — 98th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 31% (48/153) against Shane Bieber this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — third Percentile.
Shane Bieber has a strikeout rate of 47% (58 SO in 124 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — 91st Percentile.
Michael Pineda: Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael Pineda has walked 25 of 567 batters (4%) since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 98th Percentile.
Michael Pineda has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 93.6 MPH on pitches in the strike zone since the start of last season (346 balls in play) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: 90.8
Michael Pineda has located his breaking pitches down 85% of the time (497/582) since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: 63% — 99th Percentile.
Michael Pineda has an average spin rate of 1960.2 RPM on sliders since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: 2400.2 — first Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Guardians are 24-3 (.889) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .716.
The Guardians are 8-34 (.190) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .080.
The Guardians are 7-31 (.184) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .105.
The Guardians are 8-5 (.615) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Tigers are just 2-34 (.056) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .203.
The Tigers are just 3-18 (.143) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .287.
The Tigers are just 3-21 (.125) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .284.
The Tigers are just 12-23 (.343) on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .482.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters have just 363 strikeouts in 2,087 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .322 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .398.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .612 (880 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .716.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
Tigers hitters have 397 strikeouts in 1,361 PA’s (29%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .277 (2,099 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Tigers hitters are slugging just .339 this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .396.
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .590 (1,252 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .698.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Guardians pitchers this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Guardians have won just 12% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.4 MPH (1,925 batted balls) this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.7.
The Guardians pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.3 MPH since the start of last season (5,864 balls in play) — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.7
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
Tigers pitchers have won only 0% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Tigers pitchers have walked 63 of 703 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Tigers pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 63% of their games on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Tigers pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Tigers vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Casey Mize (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Jacob Rogers (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Alexander Faedo (Tigers): Hip, Day-to-Day
- Spencer Turnbull (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Austin Meadows (Tigers): Achilles , D10
- Wily Peralta (Tigers): Hamstring, D15
- Matthew Manning (Tigers): Shoulder, D60
- José Cisnero (Tigers): Shoulder, D60
- Rony García (Tigers): Right Shoulder, D15
- Kyle Funkhouser (Tigers): Shoulder, D60
- Joshua-Douglas Naylor (Guardians): Back, Day-to-Day
- Austin Hedges (Guardians): Concussion, D7
- Oscar Gonzalez (Guardians): Ribs, D10
- Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Carlos Vargas (Guardians): Elbow, D60
- Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D15
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