Guardians vs Tigers Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 9

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Detroit Tigers' Parker Meadows reacts after hitting a double against the Oakland Athletics during the third inning of a baseball game Sunday, Sept. 24, 2023, in Oakland, Calif.
(AP Photo/Godofredo A. Vásquez)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 09, 2024, 11:01 AM
  • The Guardians are -145 favorites vs the Tigers
  • Guardians vs Tigers Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
  • Guardians / Tigers TV Channel: BSGL | BSDT

The Cleveland Guardians (-145) visit Comerica Park to take on the Detroit Tigers (+120) on Tuesday, July 9, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Detroit, MI.

This season, the Guardians are 56-33 against the spread (ATS), while the Tigers are 42-49 ATS.

Guardians vs Tigers Starting Pitchers Today:

  • Guardians starting pitcher: Ben Lively 8-4, 3.16 ERA
  • Tigers starting pitcher: Kenta Maeda 2-5, 6.83 ERA

Guardians vs. Tigers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Guardians-1.5 +110O 8.5 +100-145
Tigers +1.5 -135U 8.5 -120+120

Guardians vs Tigers Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 62.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Steven Kwan has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 16 games (+37.00 Units / 231% ROI)
  • Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Over in 32 of his last 44 games (+19.65 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Over in 26 of his last 43 games (+15.45 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 18 games (+13.30 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 18 games (+11.40 Units / 55% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Tigers Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Matt Vierling has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 15 games at home (+26.20 Units / 175% ROI)
  • Matt Vierling has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+14.45 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Riley Greene has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+13.15 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Gio Urshela has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 18 games (+12.60 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Matt Vierling has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+11.95 Units / 56% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 56 of their last 89 games (+16.37 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 54 of their last 89 games (+15.60 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 45 of their last 75 games (+14.10 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 47 of their last 89 games (+10.30 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 52 of their last 89 games (+9.70 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 36 games (+8.05 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 74 games (+7.60 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 29 games at home (+6.75 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Under in 36 of their last 62 games (+6.55 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+5.25 Units / 82% ROI)

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 47-42 against the Run Line (+10.3 Units / 9.63% ROI).

  • 56-33 when betting on the Moneyline for +16.37 Units / 13.92% ROI
  • 44-39 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.9 Units / 0.91% ROI
  • 39-44 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.15 Units / -9.41% ROI

Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Tigers are 42-49 against the Run Line (-12.95 Units / -10.55% ROI).

  • 43-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.9 Units / -7.51% ROI
  • 46-38 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.7 Units / 3.81% ROI
  • 38-46 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.6 Units / -13.05% ROI

Tigers vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jose Ramirez (CLE) 0.5 +400 0.5 -550
Josh Naylor (CLE) 0.5 +475 0.5 -700
Matt Vierling (DET) 0.5 +550 0.5 -800
David Fry (CLE) 0.5 +550 0.5 -800
Riley Greene (DET) 0.5 +625 0.5 -1000

Tigers vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andres Gimenez (CLE) 0.5 -250 0.5 +185
Mark Canha (DET) 0.5 -250 0.5 +185
Riley Greene (DET) 0.5 -225 0.5 +165
Brayan Rocchio (CLE) 0.5 -225 0.5 +165
Carson Kelly (DET) 0.5 -225 0.5 +165

Tigers vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jose Ramirez (CLE) 0.5 +120 0.5 -155
Josh Naylor (CLE) 0.5 +125 0.5 -160
David Fry (CLE) 0.5 +145 0.5 -190
Riley Greene (DET) 0.5 +165 0.5 -225
Matt Vierling (DET) 0.5 +165 0.5 -225

Tigers vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ben Lively (CLE) 3.5 -165 3.5 +130
Kenta Maeda (DET) 3.5 +115 3.5 -150

Opponents have a groundball rate of 60% (21/35) against Ben Lively over the last 14 days — highest among AL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 40% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 60% (21/35) against Ben Lively — tied for 4th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 42% — 97th Percentile.

Ben Lively has allowed a slugging percentage of .606 (83 Total Bases / 137 ABs) on inside fastballs since the 2022 season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 164 total IP; League Avg: .430 — second Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .192 against Ben Lively vs left-handed batters this season — sixth best among starting pitchers with at least 35 total IP– 93rd Percentile. Left handed batters hit .296 (55-for-186) against him last season — 10th worst among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP– 10th Percentile.

Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

10 of Kenta Maeda’s 20 breaking pitch strikeouts (50%) have been backdoor this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 35 total IP; League Avg: 14% — 100th Percentile.

Division opponents are hitting .374 (34-for-91) against Kenta Maeda this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 35 total IP; League Avg: .247 — 0 Percentile.

Kenta Maeda has allowed an OPS of 1.010 (146 PA’s) with runners in scoring position since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 100 total IP; League Avg: .739 — second Percentile.

Kenta Maeda has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 51% (107/209) of opposing batters this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 35 total IP; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers

The Guardians are 17-12 (.586) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .299.

The Guardians are 9-13 (.409) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.

The Guardians are 25-148 (.145) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .095.

The Guardians are 47-1 (.979) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .896.

Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Tigers are just 40-53 (.430) after a home win since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.

The Tigers are 13-1 (.929) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .799.

The Tigers are 30-4 (.882) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .802.

The Tigers are 9-34 (.209) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .143.

Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.

Guardians hitters have just 2,021 strikeouts in 11,084 PA’s (18%) against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

The Guardians have a winning percentage of 73% at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

The Guardians are batting just .281 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .333.

The Tigers are batting just .308 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.

The Tigers are batting just .275 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .333.

The Tigers have answered-back in just 20% of innings after an opponent scores in late innings since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.

Tigers hitters are slugging just .505 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .573.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .195 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .258.

Guardians pitchers have won 49% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Guardians pitchers have won 56% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

The Guardians have allowed 0.76 runs per game (68/89) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.

Tigers pitchers have walked 312 of 3,678 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Tigers pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

The Tigers have won just 21% of home games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Tigers pitchers have won only 14% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.

Tigers vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Austin Meadows (Detroit Tigers): Personal, Out
  • Matthew Boyd (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Out
  • Sawyer Gipson-Long (Detroit Tigers): Groin, 15-Day IL
  • Brendan White (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Day-To-Day
  • Freddy Pacheco (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Out
  • Garrett Hill (Detroit Tigers): Lat, Out
  • Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
  • Gavin Williams (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 15-Day IL
  • Ben Lively (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
  • Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Ankle, 15-Day IL
  • Xzavion Curry (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
  • Joey Cantillo (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
  • Angel Martinez (Cleveland Guardians): Foot, 10-Day IL
  • Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Finger, 15-Day IL
  • Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • George Valera (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
  • James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.