- The Twins are -160 favorites vs the Guardians
- Guardians starting pitcher: Gavin Williams
- Twins starting pitcher: Pablo López
- Watch the game on BSN
The Cleveland Guardians (+135) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-160) on Tuesday, August 29, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Guardians vs Twins Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Guardians are 62-70 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 64-68 ATS.
Guardians vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +1.5 -155 | O 7.5 -105 | +135 |
| Twins | -1.5 +125 | U 7.5 -115 | -160 |
Guardians vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 73.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 33 games (+8.75 Units / 19% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Under in 36 of his last 50 games (+7.85 Units / 8% ROI)
- Kole Calhoun has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 12 away games (+7.05 Units / 58% ROI)
- Bo Naylor has hit the Singles Under in his last 7 away games (+7.00 Units / 51% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 28 of his last 48 games (+7.00 Units / 13% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Carlos Correa has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 23 games at home (+17.50 Units / 41% ROI)
- Matt Wallner has hit the Singles Under in 23 of his last 26 games (+16.60 Units / 32% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 23 games at home (+12.65 Units / 36% ROI)
- Kyle Farmer has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 25 games at home (+11.35 Units / 45% ROI)
- Edouard Julien has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 games at home (+10.00 Units / 25% ROI)
Twins vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -700 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +1100 | 0.5 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +1250 | 0.5 |
Twins vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Steven Kwan | 1.5 +155 | 1.5 -210 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -110 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
Twins vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -450 |
Twins vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gavin Williams | 6.5 -120 | 6.5 -105 |
| Pablo Lopez | 5.5 -160 | 5.5 +125 |
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 50 of their last 90 games (+9.95 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 24 away games (+4.45 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 23 away games (+4.05 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 20 away games (+3.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 away games (+3.00 Units / 42% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 27 games at home (+9.20 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 33 games at home (+8.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 27 games at home (+7.90 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games (+7.80 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.70 Units / 46% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 66-66 against the Run Line (-2.3 Units / -1.38% ROI).
- 62-70 when betting on the Moneyline for -19.2 Units / -11.63% ROI
- 53-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -29 Units / -20.01% ROI
- 74-53 when betting on the total runs Under for +16.35 Units / 11.38% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 64-68 against the Run Line (-4.95 Units / -3.07% ROI).
- 69-63 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.65 Units / -6.31% ROI
- 65-61 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.6 Units / -1.78% ROI
- 61-65 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.3 Units / -6.51% ROI
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 35% (34/96) against Gavin Williams on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 8th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 52 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 95th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 38% (16/42) against Gavin Williams on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 52 total IP; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Opposing hitters have no hits in their last 29 ABs ending on a two-strike breaking pitch from Gavin Williams. — Jason Adam has the longest active streak at 40.
34% of Gavin Williams’ strikeouts have come on 97+ MPH fastballs this season — 9th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 52 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 95th Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 37% (161/435) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 116 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has allowed a slugging percentage of just .197 (13 Total Bases / 66 ABs) on fastballs away this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .373 — 100th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has a strikeout rate of 35% (46 SO in 131 PAs) with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has a first-pitch strike rate of 70% (451/648) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 98th Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Guardians are 30-103 (.226) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .130.
The Guardians are just 23-38 (.377) after a win this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .514.
The Guardians are just 8-34 (.190) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.
The Guardians are 20-111 (.153) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .093.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Twins are just 11-24 (.314) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 56-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .948.
The Twins are 12-42 (.222) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .145.
The Twins are 27-9 (.750) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .613.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 2,059 strikeouts in 11,109 PA’s (18%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 22% of swings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters have just 1,440 strikeouts in 7,999 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have just 937 strikeouts in 4,946 PA’s (19%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have 1,362 strikeouts in 5,025 PA’s (27%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins hitters have 1,038 strikeouts in 3,735 PA’s (28%) against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Twins are batting just .230 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
The Twins are batting just .229 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 3.41 (607.0 IP) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.22.
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 3.25 (1047.2 IP) against division opponents since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.10.
The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 40% of their games on the road since last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Guardians pitchers have allowed a run just 27% of the time after an opposing score since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 368 of 4,916 batters (7%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins pitchers have walked 78 of 1,185 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Twins have won just 12% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Twins pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 68% of opposing batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Twins vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Minnesota Twins – No Injuries Reported
- Cleveland Guardians – No Injuries Reported
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