- The Twins are -135 favorites vs the Guardians
- Guardians starting pitcher: Tanner Bibee
- Twins starting pitcher: Pablo López
- Watch the game on BSN
The Cleveland Guardians (+110) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-135) on Thursday, June 1, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Guardians vs Twins Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Guardians are 25-30 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 29-27 ATS.
Guardians vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +1.5 -185 | O 8 +100 | +110 |
| Twins | -1.5 +150 | U 8 -120 | -135 |
Guardians vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 65.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Guardians vs Twins and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 36 games (+27.25 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 38 of his last 50 games (+16.00 Units / 15% ROI)
- Amed Rosario has hit the Total Bases Under in 24 of his last 32 games (+12.35 Units / 22% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 26 games (+11.35 Units / 24% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+11.00 Units / 39% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Willi Castro has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 17 games (+10.90 Units / 37% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 games (+10.85 Units / 36% ROI)
- Kyle Farmer has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 16 games (+10.70 Units / 67% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+10.30 Units / 52% ROI)
- Sonny Gray has hit the Earned Runs Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+9.75 Units / 67% ROI)
Twins vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
Twins vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -105 |
Twins vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
Twins vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tanner Bibee | 6.5 +135 | 6.5 -185 |
| Pablo Lopez | 4.5 -165 | 4.5 +125 |
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 39 games (+18.20 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 48 games (+14.15 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 7 away games (+4.80 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.80 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.40 Units / 38% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games at home (+6.25 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 20 games at home (+3.90 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 24 games at home (+3.70 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 24 games (+3.25 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 25 games (+3.25 Units / 10% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 24-31 against the Run Line (-8.8 Units / -12.63% ROI).
- 25-30 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.1 Units / -17.24% ROI
- 18-34 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.15 Units / -31.81% ROI
- 34-18 when betting on the total runs Under for +14.35 Units / 23.58% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 29-27 against the Run Line (+1.65 Units / 2.41% ROI).
- 29-27 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.95 Units / -6.3% ROI
- 24-29 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.15 Units / -13.1% ROI
- 29-24 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.85 Units / 4.65% ROI
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tanner Bibee has allowed an OBP of just .056 (18 PA’s) versus the top of the order over the last 14 days (2 games) — best in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: .298 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 31% (28/91) against Tanner Bibee this season — 12th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 21 total IP; League Avg: 42% — seventh Percentile.
Tanner Bibee has walked 5 of 30 left-handed batters (17%) — tied for 7th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 10% — 10th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .100 (2-for-20) against Tanner Bibee — tied for 7th best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .226 — 93rd Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .143 (6-for-42) against Pablo Lopez’s elevated fastball this season — tied for 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .219 — 94th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has thrown his curveball 30% of the time (207/690) in non-two strike counts this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has a first-pitch strike rate of 71% (191/267) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has a strikeout rate of 30% (81 SO in 270 PAs) this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 93rd Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Guardians are 23-75 (.235) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .123.
The Guardians are 17-80 (.175) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .088.
The Guardians are just 3-8 (.273) after a home win this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Guardians are 23-54 (.299) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .200.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Twins are just 5-21 (.192) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 16-30 (.348) after a road win since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .488.
The Twins are 14-1 (.933) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .611.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 1,076 strikeouts in 6,017 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .348 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .405.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .361 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .423.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting just .141 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .171.
Twins hitters have been successful in 160% of their bunt for hit attempts since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
The Twins are batting just .218 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Twins hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 30 of 495 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 118 of 1,955 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Guardians pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
The Twins have won just 12% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Twins pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Twins vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Tricep, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Gilberto Celestino (Twins): Thumb, D60
- Trevor Larnach (Twins): Pneumonia, D10
- Nicholas Gordon (Twins): Shin, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Forearm, D15
- Emilio Pagán (Twins): Hip, Day-to-Day
- Caleb Thielbar (Twins): Oblique Strain, D15
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
- Aaron Civale (Guardians): Oblique, D15
- Peyton Battenfield (Guardians): Shoulder, D15
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
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