- The Twins are -135 favorites vs the Guardians
- Guardians starting pitcher: Aaron Civale
- Twins starting pitcher: John Ober
- Watch the game on Apple TV+
The Cleveland Guardians (+110) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-135) on Friday, June 2, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Guardians vs Twins Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Guardians are 25-31 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 29-28 ATS.
Guardians vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +1.5 -185 | O 8 -105 | +110 |
| Twins | -1.5 +150 | U 8 -115 | -135 |
Guardians vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 64.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 37 games (+24.80 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 38 of his last 50 games (+16.00 Units / 14% ROI)
- Amed Rosario has hit the Total Bases Under in 25 of his last 33 games (+13.35 Units / 23% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 27 games (+12.35 Units / 25% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 21 away games (+11.80 Units / 25% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kyle Farmer has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 16 games (+10.70 Units / 67% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+10.05 Units / 47% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 16 games at home (+10.00 Units / 32% ROI)
- Sonny Gray has hit the Earned Runs Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+9.75 Units / 67% ROI)
- Kyle Farmer has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+9.40 Units / 44% ROI)
Twins vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -500 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -550 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
Twins vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Amed Rosario | 1.5 +165 | 1.5 -225 |
Twins vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Twins vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Civale | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 +105 |
| Bailey Ober | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -135 |
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 40 games (+17.15 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 49 games (+13.15 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 8 away games (+5.80 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.80 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.45 Units / 28% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 21 games at home (+7.25 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 25 games at home (+4.70 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+3.25 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 21 games at home (+2.90 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games at home (+2.70 Units / 11% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 25-31 against the Run Line (-7.8 Units / -10.94% ROI).
- 25-31 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.1 Units / -18.4% ROI
- 19-34 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.15 Units / -29.58% ROI
- 34-19 when betting on the total runs Under for +13.3 Units / 21.49% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 29-28 against the Run Line (+0.65 Units / 0.94% ROI).
- 30-27 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.95 Units / -4.94% ROI
- 25-29 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.15 Units / -11.29% ROI
- 29-25 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.8 Units / 2.88% ROI
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents batted just .119 (26-for-218) against Luis Severino with two-strikes in 2022 — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .169 — 96th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .132 (10-for-76) against Luis Severino’s elevated fastballs in 2022 — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .224 — 96th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .114 (23-for-201) against Luis Severino when behind in the count in 2022 — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .192 — 100th Percentile.
Luis Severino had a strikeout rate of 46% (64/140) on low non-fastballs in 2022 — tied for 12th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 33% — 90th Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bailey Ober has thrown fastballs up 78% of the time (563/722) since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 86 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Bailey Ober has elevated his fastball 81% of the time (247/303) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 21 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.
Bailey Ober has thrown fastballs up 88% of the time (83/94) with two-strikes this season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 21 total IP; League Avg: 57% — 100th Percentile.
Bailey Ober has thrown fastballs up 81% of the time (247/303) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 21 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Guardians are 23-75 (.235) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .123.
The Guardians are 7-18 (.280) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .135.
The Guardians are 3-23 (.115) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Guardians are just 3-8 (.273) after a home win this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Twins are just 5-21 (.192) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 13-28 (.317) after a win as underdogs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .413.
The Twins are 14-1 (.933) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .611.
The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters are slugging just .348 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .405.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .349 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .652 (2,188 PA’s) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .724.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting just .142 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .171.
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .223 (1,199 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Twins are batting just .221 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.
The Twins are batting just .226 against LHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .258.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 120 of 1,964 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 32 of 504 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Guardians pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 157 of 2,117 batters (7%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Twins have won just 12% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have 357 three-pitch strikeouts since last season — tied for 4th most in MLB.
Twins vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Carlos Correa (Twins): Foot, Day-to-Day
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Tricep, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Gilberto Celestino (Twins): Thumb, D60
- Trevor Larnach (Twins): Pneumonia, D10
- Nicholas Gordon (Twins): Shin, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Forearm, D15
- Maximilian Kepler (Twins): Migraine, Day-to-Day
- Caleb Thielbar (Twins): Oblique Strain, D15
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
- Byron Buxton (Twins): Ribs, Day-to-Day
- Aaron Civale (Guardians): Oblique, D15
- Peyton Battenfield (Guardians): Shoulder, D15
- Cal Quantrill (Guardians): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Joshua-Douglas Naylor (Guardians): Wrist, Day-to-Day
- Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
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