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Guardians vs Twins Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 21

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 21, 2022, 12:00 PM
  • The Twins (38-30) are -165 favorites vs the Guardians (34-28)
  • Guardians starting pitcher: Aaron Civale (2-3), 7.83 ERA
  • Twins starting pitcher: Joseph Ryan (5-3), 2.81 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSN

The Cleveland Guardians (+140) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-165) on Tuesday, June 21, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Minneapolis.

The Twins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).

The Guardians vs Twins Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Guardians are 34-28 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 31-37 ATS.

Guardians vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Guardians+1.5 -140O 9.5 -120+140
Twins -1.5 +115U 9.5 +100-165

Guardians vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 61.8% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.

Looking for a first bet offer up to $1,000? Bet now on Twins vs Guardians and all MLB games with BetMGM

Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Oscar Gonzalez has hit the RBIs Under in 9 of his last 11 away games (+5.50 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Amed Rosario has hit the RBIs Under in 8 of his last 10 away games (+4.95 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 11 away games (+4.30 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Total Bases Under in 6 of his last 8 away games (+4.05 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Amed Rosario has hit the Total Bases Over in 5 of his last 7 games (+3.35 Units / 43% ROI)
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    Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today

    And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 14 games at home (+15.80 Units / 79% ROI)
  • Luis Arraez has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 14 games at home (+9.25 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Luis Arraez has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 13 games at home (+8.30 Units / 62% ROI)
  • Luis Arraez has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 16 games at home (+8.10 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Trevor Larnach has hit the Runs Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+4.90 Units / 28% ROI)
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  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 43 games (+12.55 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 43 games (+10.30 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 22 games (+8.70 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 31 games (+5.25 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 17 of their last 31 games (+4.05 Units / 12% ROI)
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  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 32 of their last 51 games (+12.95 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 32 games at home (+10.95 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 56 games (+10.60 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 14 games at home (+9.30 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+5.95 Units / 59% ROI)
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    Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 34-28 against the Run Line (+5.15 Units / 6.71% ROI).

    • 34-28 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.6 Units / 10.22% ROI
    • 29-28 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.1 Units / -3.06% ROI
    • 28-29 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.9 Units / -5.73% ROI

    Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 31-37 against the Run Line (-7.45 Units / -9.25% ROI).

    • 38-30 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.8 Units / 6.39% ROI
    • 31-32 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.5 Units / -4.71% ROI
    • 32-31 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.5 Units / -3.29% ROI

    Aaron Civale has allowed a slugging percentage of .670 (63 Total Bases / 94 ABs) on elevated fastballs since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: .382 — 0 Percentile.

    Opponents have a Well-Hit Avg of .319 (30/94) against elevated fastballs from Aaron Civale since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: .179 — first Percentile.

    Hitters have swung at 54% of Aaron Civale’s pitches (418/772) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: 61% — second Percentile.

    Aaron Civale has a strike rate of just 59% (455/772) in two strike counts since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 0 Percentile.

    Joseph Ryan: Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

    Division opponents are hitting just .143 (12-for-84) against Joe Ryan this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: .244 — 98th Percentile.

    Opponents have a line drive rate of just 18% (24/130) against Joe Ryan this season — 9th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 94th Percentile.

    Joe Ryan has allowed a slugging percentage of just .174 (8 Total Bases / 46 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: .375 — 93rd Percentile.

    81% of Joe Ryan’s non-fastball strikeouts are located away this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: 51% — 98th Percentile.

    Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Twins

    The Guardians are 5-23 (.179) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .073.

    The Guardians are 21-1 (.955) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .720.

    The Guardians are 22-1 (.957) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .902.

    The Guardians are 23-3 (.885) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .797.

    Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

    The Twins are 3-21 (.125) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .098.

    The Twins are 33-10 (.767) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.

    The Twins are 27-2 (.931) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .797.

    The Twins are 16-4 (.800) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .720.

    Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

    26% of Guardians hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

    Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .639 (695 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .712.

    Guardians hitters have put 40% of their swings in play this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

    Twins hitters are slugging .548 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .443.

    Twins hitters have an OBP of .325 (1,762 PA’s) against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .309.

    Twins hitters have an OPS of .744 (1,762 PA’s) against RHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .699.

    Twins hitters are slugging .419 against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .390.

    Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Guardians pitchers this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

    The Guardians have won just 8% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

    The Guardians pitchers have allowed 148 barreled balls this season — 3rd most in MLB.

    Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .194 against Guardians pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .222.

    The Twins have won just 8% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

    Opponents have a groundball batting average of .262 against Twins pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: .234.

    The Twins pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 39% of their games since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

    The Twins pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.4 MPH since the start of last season (5,840 balls in play) — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.7

    Twins vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jorge Polanco (Twins): Back, D10
  • Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D15
  • Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
  • Randy Dobnak (Twins): Finger, D60
  • Trevor Megill (Twins): Shoulder, D15
  • Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D60
  • John Ober (Twins): Groin, D15
  • Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Josh Winder (Twins): Shoulder, D15
  • Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60
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  • José Ramírez (Guardians): Thumb, Day-to-Day
  • James Karinchak (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
  • Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
  • Carlos Vargas (Guardians): Elbow, D60
  • Franmil Reyes (Guardians): Hamstring, D10
  • Aaron Civale (Guardians): Glute, D15
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    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

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