Guardians vs Twins Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 22

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 22, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Twins (38-31) are -160 favorites vs the Guardians (35-28)
  • Guardians starting pitcher: Triston McKenzie (4-5), 2.95 ERA
  • Twins starting pitcher: Sonny Gray (3-1), 2.09 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSN

The Cleveland Guardians (+135) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-160) on Wednesday, June 22, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Minneapolis.

The Twins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+130).

The Guardians vs Twins Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Guardians are 35-28 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 31-38 ATS.

Guardians vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Guardians+1.5 -155O 8.5 -105+135
Twins -1.5 +130U 8.5 -115-160

Guardians vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 63.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Twins vs Guardians and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Amed Rosario has hit the RBIs Under in 9 of his last 11 away games (+5.95 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 12 games (+4.00 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Amed Rosario has hit the Hits Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.95 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Andres Gimenez has hit the Singles Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.80 Units / 72% ROI)
  • Oscar Gonzalez has hit the RBIs Under in 9 of his last 12 away games (+3.80 Units / 17% ROI)

Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+17.30 Units / 82% ROI)
  • Luis Arraez has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 14 games at home (+9.30 Units / 64% ROI)
  • Luis Arraez has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 17 games at home (+9.10 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Luis Arraez has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+7.30 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Gio Urshela has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+6.00 Units / 48% ROI)

Twins vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Kirilloff 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Byron Buxton 0.5 +160 0.5 -250
Carlos Correa 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Gary Sanchez 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Gio Urshela 0.5 +375 0.5 -700

Twins vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Kirilloff 0.5 -190 0.5 +135
Byron Buxton 0.5 -275 0.5 +185
Carlos Correa 0.5 -275 0.5 +190
Gary Sanchez 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Gio Urshela 0.5 -250 0.5 +170

Twins vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Kirilloff 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Byron Buxton 0.5 +100 0.5 -145
Carlos Correa 0.5 +110 0.5 -160
Gary Sanchez 0.5 +105 0.5 -150
Gio Urshela 0.5 +170 0.5 -250

Twins vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Triston McKenzie 5.5 +115 5.5 -160
Sonny Gray 4.5 -105 4.5 -140
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 44 games (+13.95 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 44 games (+11.30 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 23 games (+9.70 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games (+4.95 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 32 games (+4.25 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 32 of their last 52 games (+12.95 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 33 games at home (+9.75 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 57 games (+9.00 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+7.65 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+6.95 Units / 61% ROI)

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 35-28 against the Run Line (+6.15 Units / 7.87% ROI).

  • 35-28 when betting on the Moneyline for +9 Units / 11.94% ROI
  • 30-28 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.1 Units / -1.58% ROI
  • 28-30 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.9 Units / -7.09% ROI

Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 31-38 against the Run Line (-8.45 Units / -10.36% ROI).

  • 38-31 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.2 Units / 4.55% ROI
  • 32-32 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.5 Units / -3.31% ROI
  • 32-32 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.5 Units / -4.55% ROI

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 29% (36/123) against Triston McKenzie this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .185 (46-for-249) against Triston McKenzie this season — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — 98th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .106 (7-for-66) against Triston McKenzie when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .239 — 100th Percentile.

Division opponents are hitting just .160 (52-for-324) against Triston McKenzie since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: .244 — 99th Percentile.

Sonny Gray: Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Sonny Gray has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 73.9 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (81 balls in play) — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: 80.3

Hitters have swung at 51% of Sonny Gray’s pitches (412/815) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.

Sonny Gray has thrown his curveball 39% of the time (498/1,289) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total CB; League Avg: 18% — 95th Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 51% of Sonny Gray’s pitches (556/1,100) with two-strikes since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total IP; League Avg: 60% — 0 Percentile.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Twins

The Guardians are 6-23 (.207) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .073.

The Guardians are 22-1 (.957) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .719.

The Guardians are 16-10 (.615) at home this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .514.

The Guardians are 5-21 (.192) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .097.

Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Twins are 27-3 (.900) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .795.

The Twins are 16-4 (.800) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .719.

The Twins are 33-10 (.767) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

The Twins are just 34-4 (.895) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .927.

Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

26% of Guardians hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 20%.

Guardians hitters have put 40% of their swings in play this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .639 (695 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .713.

Twins hitters have an OPS of .742 (1,802 PA’s) against RHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .701.

Twins hitters are slugging just .484 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .565.

Twins hitters have 31 extra-base hits out of 63 total hits (49%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Twins hitters have an OBP of .324 (1,802 PA’s) against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .309.

The Guardians have won 50% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Guardians pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The longest HR allowed by the Guardians pitchers this season traveled 438.0 feet — — tied for shortest in MLB; League Avg: 455.2

The Guardians pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 33% of their games this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 42% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

The Twins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 43% of their games at home this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

The Twins pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 36% of their games this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

The Twins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games on the road since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Twins vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jorge Polanco (Twins): Back, D10
  • Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D15
  • Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
  • Randy Dobnak (Twins): Finger, D60
  • Trevor Megill (Twins): Shoulder, D15
  • Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D60
  • John Ober (Twins): Groin, D15
  • Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Josh Winder (Twins): Shoulder, D15
  • Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60
  • James Karinchak (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
  • Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
  • Carlos Vargas (Guardians): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.