- The Twins (38-31) are -160 favorites vs the Guardians (35-28)
- Guardians starting pitcher: Triston McKenzie (4-5), 2.95 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Sonny Gray (3-1), 2.09 ERA
- Watch the game on BSN
The Cleveland Guardians (+135) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-160) on Wednesday, June 22, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Twins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+130).
The Guardians vs Twins Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Guardians are 35-28 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 31-38 ATS.
Guardians vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +1.5 -155 | O 8.5 -105 | +135 |
| Twins | -1.5 +130 | U 8.5 -115 | -160 |
Guardians vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 63.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Amed Rosario has hit the RBIs Under in 9 of his last 11 away games (+5.95 Units / 26% ROI)
- Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 12 games (+4.00 Units / 18% ROI)
- Amed Rosario has hit the Hits Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.95 Units / 46% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Singles Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.80 Units / 72% ROI)
- Oscar Gonzalez has hit the RBIs Under in 9 of his last 12 away games (+3.80 Units / 17% ROI)
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+17.30 Units / 82% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 14 games at home (+9.30 Units / 64% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 17 games at home (+9.10 Units / 53% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+7.30 Units / 29% ROI)
- Gio Urshela has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+6.00 Units / 48% ROI)
Twins vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -250 |
| Carlos Correa | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Gary Sanchez | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Gio Urshela | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
Twins vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +135 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +185 |
| Carlos Correa | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +190 |
| Gary Sanchez | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Gio Urshela | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
Twins vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -145 |
| Carlos Correa | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -160 |
| Gary Sanchez | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -150 |
| Gio Urshela | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
Twins vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Triston McKenzie | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -160 |
| Sonny Gray | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -140 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Guardians Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 44 games (+13.95 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 44 games (+11.30 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 23 games (+9.70 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games (+4.95 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 32 games (+4.25 Units / 12% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Twins: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 32 of their last 52 games (+12.95 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 33 games at home (+9.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 57 games (+9.00 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+7.65 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+6.95 Units / 61% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 35-28 against the Run Line (+6.15 Units / 7.87% ROI).
- 35-28 when betting on the Moneyline for +9 Units / 11.94% ROI
- 30-28 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.1 Units / -1.58% ROI
- 28-30 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.9 Units / -7.09% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 31-38 against the Run Line (-8.45 Units / -10.36% ROI).
- 38-31 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.2 Units / 4.55% ROI
- 32-32 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.5 Units / -3.31% ROI
- 32-32 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.5 Units / -4.55% ROI
Triston McKenzie: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 29% (36/123) against Triston McKenzie this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .185 (46-for-249) against Triston McKenzie this season — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .106 (7-for-66) against Triston McKenzie when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .239 — 100th Percentile.
Division opponents are hitting just .160 (52-for-324) against Triston McKenzie since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: .244 — 99th Percentile.
Sonny Gray: Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Sonny Gray has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 73.9 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (81 balls in play) — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: 80.3
Hitters have swung at 51% of Sonny Gray’s pitches (412/815) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.
Sonny Gray has thrown his curveball 39% of the time (498/1,289) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total CB; League Avg: 18% — 95th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 51% of Sonny Gray’s pitches (556/1,100) with two-strikes since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total IP; League Avg: 60% — 0 Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Guardians are 6-23 (.207) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .073.
The Guardians are 22-1 (.957) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .719.
The Guardians are 16-10 (.615) at home this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .514.
The Guardians are 5-21 (.192) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .097.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Twins are 27-3 (.900) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .795.
The Twins are 16-4 (.800) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .719.
The Twins are 33-10 (.767) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
The Twins are just 34-4 (.895) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .927.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
26% of Guardians hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 20%.
Guardians hitters have put 40% of their swings in play this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .639 (695 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .713.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have an OPS of .742 (1,802 PA’s) against RHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .701.
Twins hitters are slugging just .484 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .565.
Twins hitters have 31 extra-base hits out of 63 total hits (49%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Twins hitters have an OBP of .324 (1,802 PA’s) against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .309.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
The Guardians have won 50% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Guardians pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The longest HR allowed by the Guardians pitchers this season traveled 438.0 feet — — tied for shortest in MLB; League Avg: 455.2
The Guardians pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 33% of their games this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 42% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The Twins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 43% of their games at home this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
The Twins pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 36% of their games this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Twins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games on the road since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Twins vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Back, D10
- Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D15
- Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
- Randy Dobnak (Twins): Finger, D60
- Trevor Megill (Twins): Shoulder, D15
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D60
- John Ober (Twins): Groin, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Josh Winder (Twins): Shoulder, D15
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60
- James Karinchak (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Carlos Vargas (Guardians): Elbow, D60
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