Guardians vs Twins Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 23

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(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 23, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The (42-25) are favorites vs the (42-25)
  • Guardians starting pitcher: Zach Plesac (2-4), 4.41 ERA
  • Twins starting pitcher: Devin Smeltzer (3-1), 3.52 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Cleveland Guardians () visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins () on Thursday, June 23, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Minneapolis.

The are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at ().

The Guardians vs Twins Over/Under is total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Guardians are 36-28 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 31-39 ATS.

Guardians vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Guardians O
Twins U

Guardians vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Thursday‘s matchup with 61.6% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Twins vs Guardians and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Hits Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Andres Gimenez has hit the Singles Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.95 Units / 79% ROI)
  • Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 13 away games (+4.30 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Amed Rosario has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+3.65 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Amed Rosario has hit the RBIs Under in 9 of his last 12 away games (+3.50 Units / 14% ROI)

Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 16 games at home (+16.30 Units / 74% ROI)
  • Luis Arraez has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+8.20 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Luis Arraez has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 18 games at home (+8.10 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Luis Arraez has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 16 games at home (+5.60 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Gio Urshela has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 9 games (+5.00 Units / 37% ROI)

Twins vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Kirilloff 0.5 +340 0.5 -600
Carlos Correa 0.5 +300 0.5 -450
Gary Sanchez 0.5 +310 0.5 -500
Gio Urshela 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Luis Arraez 0.5 +675 0.5 -2000

Twins vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Carlos Correa 1.5 +155 1.5 -225
Gary Sanchez 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
Gio Urshela 0.5 -300 0.5 +195
Luis Arraez 1.5 +130 1.5 -185
Trevor Larnach 0.5 -190 0.5 +130

Twins vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Kirilloff 0.5 +135 0.5 -190
Carlos Correa 0.5 +105 0.5 -150
Gary Sanchez 0.5 -105 0.5 -140
Gio Urshela 0.5 +150 0.5 -225
Luis Arraez 0.5 +175 0.5 -250

Twins vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Zach Plesac 3.5 -125 3.5 -115
Devin Smeltzer 2.5 -185 2.5 +125
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 45 games (+15.30 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 45 games (+12.30 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 24 games (+8.65 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 30 of their last 62 games (+4.30 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 21 games (+3.95 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 33 of their last 53 games (+13.95 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 40 of their last 68 games (+10.50 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games at home (+8.65 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+7.95 Units / 64% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 58 games (+7.45 Units / 9% ROI)

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 36-28 against the Run Line (+7.15 Units / 8.97% ROI).

  • 36-28 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.35 Units / 13.56% ROI
  • 31-28 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.1 Units / -0.14% ROI
  • 28-31 when betting on the total runs Under for -6 Units / -8.55% ROI

Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 31-39 against the Run Line (-9.45 Units / -11.45% ROI).

  • 38-32 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.65 Units / 2.82% ROI
  • 33-32 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.5 Units / -1.96% ROI
  • 32-33 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.6 Units / -5.9% ROI

Zach Plesac has allowed a slugging percentage of .652 (30 Total Bases / 46 ABs) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .365 — first Percentile.

Zach Plesac has struck out just 12% (15/131) of left-handed batters he faced this season — tied for lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — third Percentile.

Left-handed batters are hitting .299 (35-for-117) against Zach Plesac this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .229 — first Percentile.

Zach Plesac has allowed an OPS of 1.097 (54 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .665 — first Percentile.

Devin Smeltzer: Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 13% (16/123) against Devin Smeltzer this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Devin Smeltzer has induced opposing hitters to ground into 6 double plays in 26 opportunities (23%) this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: 10% — 99th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 11% (11/99) against Devin Smeltzer this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.

Devin Smeltzer has allowed a BABIP of .209 against right-handed batters this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: .293 — 99th Percentile.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Twins

The Guardians are 7-23 (.233) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .075.

The Guardians are 23-1 (.958) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .719.

The Guardians are 23-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .925.

The Guardians are 16-10 (.615) at home this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .514.

Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Twins are 33-10 (.767) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .708.

The Twins are 27-4 (.871) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — tied for 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .796.

The Twins are just 12-20 (.375) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Twins are just 34-5 (.872) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .925.

Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Guardians hitters have just 449 strikeouts in 2,429 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters have just 309 strikeouts in 1,730 PA’s (18%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters have put 40% of their swings in play this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Twins hitters are slugging .561 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .446.

Twins hitters have an OBP of .326 (1,833 PA’s) against RHP this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .309.

Twins hitters have an OPS of .753 (1,833 PA’s) against RHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .702.

The Twins are batting .251 with two outs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .234.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Guardians pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 3.13 (236.0 IP) at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 3.87.

Guardians pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 66% of opposing batters this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 63%.

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Guardians have have still managed to win 45% of the time this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 42% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

The Twins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

The Twins pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 39% of their games since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

The Twins pitchers have allowed 530 barreled balls since the start of last season — 3rd most in MLB.

Twins vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jorge Polanco (Twins): Back, D10
  • Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D15
  • Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
  • Randy Dobnak (Twins): Finger, D60
  • Trevor Megill (Twins): Shoulder, D15
  • Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D60
  • John Ober (Twins): Groin, D15
  • Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60
  • James Karinchak (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
  • Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
  • Carlos Vargas (Guardians): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.