- The – (42-25) are favorites vs the – (42-25)
- Guardians starting pitcher: Zach Plesac (2-4), 4.41 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Devin Smeltzer (3-1), 3.52 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Cleveland Guardians () visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins () on Thursday, June 23, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The – are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at ().
The Guardians vs Twins Over/Under is total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Guardians are 36-28 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 31-39 ATS.
Guardians vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | O | ||
| Twins | U |
Guardians vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Thursday‘s matchup with 61.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Hits Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 49% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Singles Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.95 Units / 79% ROI)
- Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 13 away games (+4.30 Units / 26% ROI)
- Amed Rosario has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+3.65 Units / 18% ROI)
- Amed Rosario has hit the RBIs Under in 9 of his last 12 away games (+3.50 Units / 14% ROI)
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 16 games at home (+16.30 Units / 74% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+8.20 Units / 52% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 18 games at home (+8.10 Units / 45% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 16 games at home (+5.60 Units / 21% ROI)
- Gio Urshela has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 9 games (+5.00 Units / 37% ROI)
Twins vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -600 |
| Carlos Correa | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -450 |
| Gary Sanchez | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -500 |
| Gio Urshela | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Luis Arraez | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
Twins vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Correa | 1.5 +155 | 1.5 -225 |
| Gary Sanchez | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Gio Urshela | 0.5 -300 | 0.5 +195 |
| Luis Arraez | 1.5 +130 | 1.5 -185 |
| Trevor Larnach | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
Twins vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -190 |
| Carlos Correa | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -150 |
| Gary Sanchez | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -140 |
| Gio Urshela | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -225 |
| Luis Arraez | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Twins vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zach Plesac | 3.5 -125 | 3.5 -115 |
| Devin Smeltzer | 2.5 -185 | 2.5 +125 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Guardians Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 45 games (+15.30 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 45 games (+12.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 24 games (+8.65 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 30 of their last 62 games (+4.30 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 21 games (+3.95 Units / 15% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Twins: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 33 of their last 53 games (+13.95 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 40 of their last 68 games (+10.50 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games at home (+8.65 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+7.95 Units / 64% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 58 games (+7.45 Units / 9% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 36-28 against the Run Line (+7.15 Units / 8.97% ROI).
- 36-28 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.35 Units / 13.56% ROI
- 31-28 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.1 Units / -0.14% ROI
- 28-31 when betting on the total runs Under for -6 Units / -8.55% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 31-39 against the Run Line (-9.45 Units / -11.45% ROI).
- 38-32 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.65 Units / 2.82% ROI
- 33-32 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.5 Units / -1.96% ROI
- 32-33 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.6 Units / -5.9% ROI
Zach Plesac: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zach Plesac has allowed a slugging percentage of .652 (30 Total Bases / 46 ABs) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .365 — first Percentile.
Zach Plesac has struck out just 12% (15/131) of left-handed batters he faced this season — tied for lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — third Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .299 (35-for-117) against Zach Plesac this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .229 — first Percentile.
Zach Plesac has allowed an OPS of 1.097 (54 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .665 — first Percentile.
Devin Smeltzer: Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 13% (16/123) against Devin Smeltzer this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Devin Smeltzer has induced opposing hitters to ground into 6 double plays in 26 opportunities (23%) this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: 10% — 99th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 11% (11/99) against Devin Smeltzer this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Devin Smeltzer has allowed a BABIP of .209 against right-handed batters this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: .293 — 99th Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Guardians are 7-23 (.233) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .075.
The Guardians are 23-1 (.958) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .719.
The Guardians are 23-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .925.
The Guardians are 16-10 (.615) at home this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .514.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Twins are 33-10 (.767) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .708.
The Twins are 27-4 (.871) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — tied for 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .796.
The Twins are just 12-20 (.375) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 34-5 (.872) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .925.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters have just 449 strikeouts in 2,429 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters have just 309 strikeouts in 1,730 PA’s (18%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters have put 40% of their swings in play this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters are slugging .561 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .446.
Twins hitters have an OBP of .326 (1,833 PA’s) against RHP this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .309.
Twins hitters have an OPS of .753 (1,833 PA’s) against RHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .702.
The Twins are batting .251 with two outs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .234.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Guardians pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 3.13 (236.0 IP) at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 3.87.
Guardians pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 66% of opposing batters this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 63%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Guardians have have still managed to win 45% of the time this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 42% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The Twins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Twins pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 39% of their games since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Twins pitchers have allowed 530 barreled balls since the start of last season — 3rd most in MLB.
Twins vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Back, D10
- Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D15
- Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
- Randy Dobnak (Twins): Finger, D60
- Trevor Megill (Twins): Shoulder, D15
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D60
- John Ober (Twins): Groin, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60
- James Karinchak (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Carlos Vargas (Guardians): Elbow, D60
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