- The Twins are -135 favorites vs the Guardians
- Guardians starting pitcher: Logan Allen
- Twins starting pitcher: Sonny Gray
- Watch the game on FOX
The Cleveland Guardians (+110) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-135) on Saturday, June 3, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Guardians vs Twins Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Guardians are 25-32 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 29-29 ATS.
Guardians vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +1.5 -190 | O 7.5 -120 | +110 |
| Twins | -1.5 +155 | U 7.5 +100 | -135 |
Guardians vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 59.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Amed Rosario has hit the Total Bases Under in 25 of his last 33 games (+13.35 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 37 of his last 50 games (+12.45 Units / 11% ROI)
- Amed Rosario has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+10.80 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 24 away games (+10.55 Units / 42% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Over in 28 of his last 47 games (+10.55 Units / 22% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kyle Farmer has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+12.50 Units / 74% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 16 games at home (+11.20 Units / 50% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 games at home (+11.00 Units / 33% ROI)
- Sonny Gray has hit the Earned Runs Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+9.75 Units / 67% ROI)
- Byron Buxton has hit the RBIs Under in 11 of his last 12 games at home (+9.05 Units / 32% ROI)
Twins vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +1200 | 0.5 |
Twins vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Amed Rosario | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
| Steven Kwan | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
Twins vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -400 |
Twins vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Sonny Gray | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -165 |
| Logan Allen | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +110 |
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 41 games (+18.15 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 50 games (+14.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 9 away games (+6.80 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.85 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games (+0.45 Units / 7% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 22 games at home (+7.25 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 26 games at home (+3.65 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.55 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 26 games (+3.20 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 28 games at home (+2.70 Units / 8% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 26-31 against the Run Line (-6.8 Units / -9.32% ROI).
- 25-32 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.1 Units / -19.53% ROI
- 19-35 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.15 Units / -30.71% ROI
- 35-19 when betting on the total runs Under for +14.3 Units / 22.66% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 29-29 against the Run Line (-0.35 Units / -0.5% ROI).
- 31-27 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.95 Units / -3.63% ROI
- 25-30 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.15 Units / -12.67% ROI
- 30-25 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.8 Units / 4.4% ROI
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
starting pitcher – away
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
starting pitcher – home
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Guardians are 23-75 (.235) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .123.
The Guardians are 7-18 (.280) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .137.
The Guardians are 17-81 (.173) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .088.
The Guardians are 3-24 (.111) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Twins are just 6-21 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 13-28 (.317) after a win as underdogs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .413.
The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 14-1 (.933) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .614.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .653 (2,191 PA’s) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .362 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .423.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .640 (1,504 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .720.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting just .141 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .171.
Twins hitters have been successful in 160% of their bunt for hit attempts since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 55%.
The Twins are batting just .220 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Twins hitters have an OPS of just .453 (1,219 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .516.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 120 of 1,972 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 32 of 512 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 595 of 8,138 batters (7%) since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Guardians pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Twins pitchers this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Batters facing the Twins pitchers put just 33% of their swings in play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Twins vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Carlos Correa (Twins): Foot, Day-to-Day
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Tricep, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Gilberto Celestino (Twins): Thumb, D60
- Trevor Larnach (Twins): Pneumonia, D10
- Nicholas Gordon (Twins): Shin, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Forearm, D15
- Caleb Thielbar (Twins): Oblique Strain, D15
- Joseph Gallo (Twins): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
- Byron Buxton (Twins): Ribs, Day-to-Day
- Peyton Battenfield (Guardians): Shoulder, D15
- Cal Quantrill (Guardians): Shoulder, D15
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
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