- The Twins are -145 favorites vs the Guardians
- Guardians starting pitcher: Triston McKenzie
- Twins starting pitcher: Joseph Ryan
- Watch the game on BSN
The Cleveland Guardians (+120) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-145) on Sunday, June 4, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Guardians vs Twins Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Guardians are 26-32 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 29-30 ATS.
Guardians vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +1.5 -175 | O 7.5 -115 | +120 |
| Twins | -1.5 +145 | U 7.5 -105 | -145 |
Guardians vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 73.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Amed Rosario has hit the Total Bases Under in 26 of his last 34 games (+14.35 Units / 24% ROI)
- Amed Rosario has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+11.80 Units / 40% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Over in 29 of his last 48 games (+11.60 Units / 24% ROI)
- Will Brennan has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 21 away games (+10.65 Units / 26% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 50 games (+10.45 Units / 10% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 17 games at home (+12.25 Units / 53% ROI)
- Kyle Farmer has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 18 games (+11.50 Units / 64% ROI)
- Donovan Solano has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 16 games at home (+10.05 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 18 games at home (+10.00 Units / 29% ROI)
- Byron Buxton has hit the RBIs Under in 11 of his last 12 games at home (+9.05 Units / 32% ROI)
Twins vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -500 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +1150 | 0.5 |
Twins vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Steven Kwan | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -110 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Twins vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -400 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
Twins vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Ryan | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +115 |
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 42 games (+19.20 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 51 games (+13.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 10 away games (+7.80 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.85 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 games (+1.55 Units / 22% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 23 games at home (+8.25 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 27 games at home (+4.75 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 27 games (+4.25 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 29 games at home (+3.75 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games at home (+3.25 Units / 25% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 27-31 against the Run Line (-5.8 Units / -7.75% ROI).
- 26-32 when betting on the Moneyline for -13 Units / -17.76% ROI
- 19-36 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.4 Units / -32.08% ROI
- 36-19 when betting on the total runs Under for +15.35 Units / 23.95% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 29-30 against the Run Line (-1.35 Units / -1.89% ROI).
- 31-28 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.25 Units / -5.15% ROI
- 25-31 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.4 Units / -14.33% ROI
- 31-25 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.85 Units / 5.96% ROI
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a swing rate of 57% (367/648) against Triston McKenzie when going through the lineup the third time in a game since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 86 total IP; League Avg: 49% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 34% (170/502) against Triston McKenzie in 2022 — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .269 (29-for-108) against Triston McKenzie when he’s behind in the count since last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 86 total IP; League Avg: .339 — 97th Percentile.
Triston McKenzie has allowed an OBP of just .253 (739 PA’s) since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 86 total IP; League Avg: .307 — 98th Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Joe Ryan has a strike rate of 72% (370/511) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.
Joe Ryan has thrown his changeup 28% of the time (73/261) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.
Joe Ryan has a strike rate of 71% (726/1,022) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Joe Ryan has thrown his changeup 28% of the time (73/261) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Guardians are 24-75 (.242) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .123.
The Guardians are 8-18 (.308) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .136.
The Guardians are just 3-8 (.273) after a home win this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .538.
The Guardians are 23-55 (.295) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .201.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Twins are just 6-21 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 16-30 (.348) after a road win since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .486.
The Twins are 26-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .951.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .653 (2,191 PA’s) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .349 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .405.
Guardians hitters have just 1,088 strikeouts in 6,088 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting just .224 against LHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .257.
The Twins are batting just .141 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .171.
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .222 (1,219 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Twins hitters are slugging just .161 on pitches out of the zone this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .212.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 160 of 2,149 batters (7%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 595 of 8,138 batters (7%) since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 120 of 1,972 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 32 of 512 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Twins have won just 12% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Twins pitchers this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Twins pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 40% of their games since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Twins vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Carlos Correa (Twins): Foot, Day-to-Day
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Tricep, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Gilberto Celestino (Twins): Thumb, D60
- Trevor Larnach (Twins): Pneumonia, D10
- Nicholas Gordon (Twins): Shin, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Forearm, D15
- Joseph Gallo (Twins): Hamstring, D10
- Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Illness, Day-to-Day
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
- Byron Buxton (Twins): Ribs, Day-to-Day
- German Rosario (Guardians): Knee, Day-to-Day
- Peyton Battenfield (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Cal Quantrill (Guardians): Shoulder, D15
- Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
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