- The Twins are -145 favorites vs the Guardians
- Guardians vs Twins Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Guardians / Twins TV Channel: GDTV | TWTV
The Cleveland Guardians (+120) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-145) on Monday, May 19, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN.
This season, the Guardians are 25-21 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 28-19 ATS.
Guardians vs Twins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Guardians starting pitcher: Logan Allen 2-2, 3.71 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Bailey Ober 4-1, 3.70 ERA
Guardians vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +1.5 -185 | O 7.5 -115 | +120 |
| Twins | -1.5 +155 | U 7.5 -105 | -145 |
Guardians vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Monday‘s MLB game with 55.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+11.90 Units / 45% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 games (+9.15 Units / 102% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.00 Units / 46% ROI)
- Gabriel Arias has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+8.60 Units / 45% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+7.75 Units / 77% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Royce Lewis has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+13.05 Units / 130% ROI)
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games at home (+12.60 Units / 140% ROI)
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+12.35 Units / 42% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+9.35 Units / 37% ROI)
- Royce Lewis has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+8.95 Units / 65% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.40 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 37 games (+7.30 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.95 Units / 59% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 43 games (+4.79 Units / 9% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 37 games (+14.95 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 38 games (+14.15 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 14 games (+13.00 Units / 77% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 40 games (+9.75 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 12 games (+8.20 Units / 58% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 22-24 against the Run Line (-6.1 Units / -9.59% ROI).
- 25-21 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.15 Units / 7.76% ROI
- 21-22 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.65 Units / -5.28% ROI
- 22-21 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.95 Units / -1.86% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 28-19 against the Run Line (+10.6 Units / 17.88% ROI).
- 26-21 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.55 Units / 2.51% ROI
- 16-28 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.8 Units / -28.52% ROI
- 28-16 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.5 Units / 20.35% ROI
Twins vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -525 |
| Kyle Manzardo (CLE) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Bo Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Harrison Bader (MIN) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
Twins vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Steven Kwan (CLE) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Ty France (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +160 |
| Brooks Lee (MIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Twins vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Ty France (MIN) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Kyle Manzardo (CLE) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Harrison Bader (MIN) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Brooks Lee (MIN) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
Twins vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bailey Ober (MIN) | 4.5 -165 | 4.5 +130 |
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
8 of Logan Allen’s 17 breaking pitch strikeouts (47%) have been backdoor this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 18 total IP; League Avg: 14% — 100th Percentile.
Logan Allen has allowed a slugging percentage of .647 (86 Total Bases / 133 ABs) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 82 total IP; League Avg: .409 — 0 Percentile.
Logan Allen allowed a slugging percentage of .551 (211 Total Bases / 383 ABs) in the 2024 season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .404 — second Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 54% (26/48) against Logan Allen on elevated fastballs in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 99th Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .297 against Bailey Ober non-fastballs this season — third worst among qualified SPs– fourth Percentile. Opponents batted just .148 (45-for-304) against him non-fastballs last season — best among qualified SPs– 100th Percentile.
Bailey Ober has allowed a SLG of .495 non-fastballs this season — third worst among qualified SPs– fourth Percentile. He allowed a SLG of just .270 non-fastballs last season — fifth best among qualified SPs– 92nd Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .396 (21-for-53) against Bailey Ober’s curve and slider this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .216 — first Percentile.
Bailey Ober has allowed a slugging percentage of .717 (38 Total Bases / 53 ABs) on breaking pitches this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .359 — first Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Guardians are 92-3 (.968) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .860.
The Guardians are 21-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .911.
The Guardians were just 3-61 (.047) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .100.
The Guardians were 82-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .949.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Twins are 18-8 (.692) after a win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .501.
The Twins are just 1-86 (.011) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Twins are just 0-18 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .043.
The Twins were just 1-68 (.014) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
The Guardians batted just .232 against LHP in the 2023 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Guardians hitters had an OPS of just .662 (1,910 PA’s) against LHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .742.
Guardians hitters slugged just .367 against LHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Guardians hitters have put 41% of balls in play to the right side of the field since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters slugged just .164 on pitches out of the zone in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .211.
The Twins were just 14-29 (.326) against the run line (-32.5% ROI) vs top 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Royals (12th best runs scored) today.
Twins hitters slugged .716 on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .596.
Twins hitters are slugging 1.000 on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .595.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .207 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .223 against Guardians pitchers in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .221 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
The Guardians allowed 0.87 runs per game (140/161) in late innings in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers walked 433 of 6,078 batters (7%) in the 2024 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have walked 7% of batters since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have walked 7% of batters this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .293 against Twins pitchers with runners on base in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .262.
More MLB Reading:
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