- The Guardians (71-65) are -130 favorites vs the Twins (69-68)
- Guardians starting pitcher: Triston McKenzie (9-11), 3.18 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Christopher Archer (2-7), 4.47 ERA
- Watch the game on FOX
The Cleveland Guardians (-130) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (+110) on Saturday, September 10, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Guardians are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Guardians vs Twins Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Guardians are 70-64 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 62-72 ATS.
Guardians vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | -1.5 +135 | O 7.5 -115 | -130 |
| Twins | +1.5 -160 | U 7.5 -105 | +110 |
Guardians vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Saturday‘s matchup with 54.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Amed Rosario has hit the Total Bases Under in 27 of his last 37 games (+12.85 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Total Bases Under in 26 of his last 35 games (+12.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 53 games (+11.65 Units / 22% ROI)
- Shane Bieber has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+11.20 Units / 45% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.05 Units / 31% ROI)
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Carlos Correa has hit the Total Bases Under in 25 of his last 31 games at home (+15.55 Units / 32% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Singles Over in 32 of his last 46 games at home (+14.80 Units / 26% ROI)
- Nick Gordon has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 22 games (+12.05 Units / 30% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 games at home (+11.80 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 29 games (+11.05 Units / 23% ROI)
Twins vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Correa | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Gary Sanchez | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Gilberto Celestino | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Gio Urshela | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Jake Cave | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
Twins vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Correa | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
| Gary Sanchez | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -115 |
| Gilberto Celestino | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +100 |
| Gio Urshela | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
| Jake Cave | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -115 |
Twins vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Correa | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Gary Sanchez | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Gilberto Celestino | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -500 |
| Gio Urshela | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jake Cave | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
Twins vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Archer | 2.5 -135 | 2.5 -105 |
| Triston McKenzie | 5.5 -105 | 5.5 -135 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Guardians Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- team high – away
Positive Betting Trends for the Twins: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- team high – home
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 69-65 against the Run Line (-1.95 Units / -1.15% ROI).
- 70-64 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.05 Units / 3.62% ROI
- 57-68 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.5 Units / -11.89% ROI
- 68-57 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.2 Units / 3.51% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 62-72 against the Run Line (-12.2 Units / -7.53% ROI).
- 69-65 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.2 Units / -2.37% ROI
- 64-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.15 Units / -0.78% ROI
- 60-64 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.55 Units / -7.11% ROI
Triston McKenzie: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 32% (50/158) against Triston McKenzie in two-strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .159 (11-for-69) against Triston McKenzie on low fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .263 — 100th Percentile.
Triston McKenzie has thrown elevated pitches 47% of the time (225/483) when behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 98th Percentile.
Triston McKenzie has allowed an OBP of just .217 (152 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .304 — 100th Percentile.
Christopher Archer: Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Chris Archer has thrown his slider 54% of the time (237/441) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total SL; League Avg: 21% — 99th Percentile.
Chris Archer has located his fastball up for a strike just 46% (164/358) of the time this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: 60% — 0 Percentile.
Chris Archer has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 45% (64/141) of left-handed hitters this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: 63% — first Percentile.
Chris Archer has thrown his slider 55% of the time (203/370) with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total SL; League Avg: 28% — 99th Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Guardians are 11-56 (.164) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .086.
The Guardians are 12-53 (.185) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .116.
The Guardians are 50-3 (.943) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .914.
The Guardians are 42-5 (.894) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Twins are just 58-7 (.892) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.
The Twins are just 4-11 (.267) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 8-47 (.145) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .200.
The Twins are 61-20 (.753) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 933 strikeouts in 5,134 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .331 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .401.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Guardians hitters have put 40% of their swings in play this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have an OBP of .321 (3,680 PA’s) against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Twins hitters have not drawn a walk in 38 PA’s against LHP this month (5 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins hitters have 11 strikeouts in 38 PA’s (29%) against LHP this month (5 games) — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Twins hitters have put 42% of their swings in play in lefty-lefty matchups this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Guardians pitchers have won only 15% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Guardians pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 66% of opposing batters this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
The Guardians pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 41% of their games this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Twins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 44% of their games since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Twins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 44% of their games this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Twins vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D60
- Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
- Randy Dobnak (Twins): Finger, D60
- Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, D60
- Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D60
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Shoulder, D15
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Byron Buxton (Twins): Hip, D10
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Knee, D10
- Trevor Larnach (Twins): Core, D60
- John Ober (Twins): Groin, D60
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60
- Ryan Jeffers (Twins): Thumb, D60
- Aaron Civale (Guardians): Forearm, D15
- Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60
- Zach Plesac (Guardians): Hand, D15
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