Guardians vs Twins Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 10

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 10, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Guardians (71-65) are -130 favorites vs the Twins (69-68)
  • Guardians starting pitcher: Triston McKenzie (9-11), 3.18 ERA
  • Twins starting pitcher: Christopher Archer (2-7), 4.47 ERA
  • Watch the game on FOX

The Cleveland Guardians (-130) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (+110) on Saturday, September 10, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Minneapolis.

The Guardians are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).

The Guardians vs Twins Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Guardians are 70-64 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 62-72 ATS.

Guardians vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Guardians-1.5 +135O 7.5 -115-130
Twins +1.5 -160U 7.5 -105+110

Guardians vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Saturday‘s matchup with 54.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Twins vs Guardians and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Amed Rosario has hit the Total Bases Under in 27 of his last 37 games (+12.85 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Jose Ramirez has hit the Total Bases Under in 26 of his last 35 games (+12.20 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Jose Ramirez has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 53 games (+11.65 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Shane Bieber has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+11.20 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.05 Units / 31% ROI)

Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Carlos Correa has hit the Total Bases Under in 25 of his last 31 games at home (+15.55 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Carlos Correa has hit the Singles Over in 32 of his last 46 games at home (+14.80 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Nick Gordon has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 22 games (+12.05 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Alex Kirilloff has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 games at home (+11.80 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Jose Miranda has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 29 games (+11.05 Units / 23% ROI)

Twins vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Carlos Correa 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Gary Sanchez 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Gilberto Celestino 0.5 +850 0.5 -5000
Gio Urshela 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Jake Cave 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500

Twins vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Carlos Correa 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
Gary Sanchez 0.5 -120 0.5 -115
Gilberto Celestino 0.5 -145 0.5 +100
Gio Urshela 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
Jake Cave 0.5 -120 0.5 -115

Twins vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Carlos Correa 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Gary Sanchez 0.5 +210 0.5 -300
Gilberto Celestino 0.5 +290 0.5 -500
Gio Urshela 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Jake Cave 0.5 +260 0.5 -400

Twins vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Chris Archer 2.5 -135 2.5 -105
Triston McKenzie 5.5 -105 5.5 -135
  • team high – away
  • team high – home

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 69-65 against the Run Line (-1.95 Units / -1.15% ROI).

  • 70-64 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.05 Units / 3.62% ROI
  • 57-68 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.5 Units / -11.89% ROI
  • 68-57 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.2 Units / 3.51% ROI

Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 62-72 against the Run Line (-12.2 Units / -7.53% ROI).

  • 69-65 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.2 Units / -2.37% ROI
  • 64-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.15 Units / -0.78% ROI
  • 60-64 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.55 Units / -7.11% ROI

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 32% (50/158) against Triston McKenzie in two-strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .159 (11-for-69) against Triston McKenzie on low fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .263 — 100th Percentile.

Triston McKenzie has thrown elevated pitches 47% of the time (225/483) when behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 98th Percentile.

Triston McKenzie has allowed an OBP of just .217 (152 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .304 — 100th Percentile.

Christopher Archer: Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Chris Archer has thrown his slider 54% of the time (237/441) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total SL; League Avg: 21% — 99th Percentile.

Chris Archer has located his fastball up for a strike just 46% (164/358) of the time this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: 60% — 0 Percentile.

Chris Archer has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 45% (64/141) of left-handed hitters this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: 63% — first Percentile.

Chris Archer has thrown his slider 55% of the time (203/370) with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total SL; League Avg: 28% — 99th Percentile.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Twins

The Guardians are 11-56 (.164) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .086.

The Guardians are 12-53 (.185) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .116.

The Guardians are 50-3 (.943) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Guardians are 42-5 (.894) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .723.

Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Twins are just 58-7 (.892) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Twins are just 4-11 (.267) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Twins are just 8-47 (.145) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .200.

The Twins are 61-20 (.753) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.

Guardians hitters have just 933 strikeouts in 5,134 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters are slugging just .331 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .401.

Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Guardians hitters have put 40% of their swings in play this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Twins hitters have an OBP of .321 (3,680 PA’s) against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .310.

Twins hitters have not drawn a walk in 38 PA’s against LHP this month (5 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Twins hitters have 11 strikeouts in 38 PA’s (29%) against LHP this month (5 games) — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Twins hitters have put 42% of their swings in play in lefty-lefty matchups this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Guardians pitchers have won only 15% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Guardians pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 66% of opposing batters this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.

The Guardians pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 41% of their games this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Twins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 44% of their games since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

The Twins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 44% of their games this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Twins vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D60
  • Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
  • Randy Dobnak (Twins): Finger, D60
  • Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, D60
  • Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Tyler Mahle (Twins): Shoulder, D15
  • Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Byron Buxton (Twins): Hip, D10
  • Jorge Polanco (Twins): Knee, D10
  • Trevor Larnach (Twins): Core, D60
  • John Ober (Twins): Groin, D60
  • Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60
  • Ryan Jeffers (Twins): Thumb, D60
  • Aaron Civale (Guardians): Forearm, D15
  • Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60
  • Zach Plesac (Guardians): Hand, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.